Who will be the 2024 Republican Presidential nominee (Post RNC edition)?

[MATTROSE94]

If Trump wins: Mike Pence or Donald Trump Jr. Possibly John James if he wins this year.

If Trump loses: Donald Trump Jr., Mike Pence, Tucker Carlson, Nikk Haley, or Tom Cotton.

[Pollster]

I used to think that a Tim Scott 2024 run would be the equivalent of Marco Rubio's 2016 run, but the RNC has made me believe that the Republican base really, really wants to nominate a Black man for a variety of reasons.

Scott could very well win but could wind up being too insider/establishment. I wouldn't factor out John James even if/when he loses again this year. Even Pastor Mark Burns could be a compelling candidate to sects of the base.

[S019]

Tucker

I'm actually very slightly inclined to agree with this. Even if it's not Carlson himself, it will almost certainly be someone in his mould.

Jeb!-ism is dead in the GOP and Nikki Haley and her cohorts don't have a hope in hell

Edit: Forgot about Josh Hawley, he stands a somewhat decent chance, although it's probably still too early in his career

If any of this is true, then the GOP can kiss AZ, GA, and TX goodbye, though I guess they'll be kissing AZ good bye this year. Only someone seen as moderate like Haley or an actual moderate like Hogan will be able to hold the Sunbelt trio, a Trumpist or someone like that will further alienate those voters, if the GOP nominates Tucker, TX could very well be Safe D by 2030.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Tucker

I'm actually very slightly inclined to agree with this. Even if it's not Carlson himself, it will almost certainly be someone in his mould.

Jeb!-ism is dead in the GOP and Nikki Haley and her cohorts don't have a hope in hell

Edit: Forgot about Josh Hawley, he stands a somewhat decent chance, although it's probably still too early in his career

If any of this is true, then the GOP can kiss AZ, GA, and TX goodbye, though I guess they'll be kissing AZ good bye this year. Only someone seen as moderate like Haley or an actual moderate like Hogan will be able to hold the Sunbelt trio, a Trumpist or someone like that will further alienate those voters, if the GOP nominates Tucker, TX could very well be Safe D by 2030.

Keep dreaming. Trump is doing better than Romney with Hispanic voters, Tucker would make more gains over that.

[TrumpBritt24]

Matt Gaetz.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I'm surprised more people aren't saying Ted Cruz.  He was the runner-up in 2016, he's still relatively young, and Texas  is a must-win for Republicans.

[NewYorkExpress]

Of the choices not on the list, Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton are the most obvious choices.

That said, regardless of whether Trump wins or loses, I think the nominee in 2024 will be as different from him as possible and they might have to compete with a Kamala Harris or AOC candidacy, so I think they'll nominate a woman.

Nikki Haley is the strongest possible female candidate, but she'd do poorly in all southern primaries (except for South Carolina) and might have problems winning the nomination.

Sarah Palin, if she runs is still admired by the base, but memories of her 2008 VP campaign will be difficult to shake, especially in states like New Hampshire.

I'd watch for Kirsti Noem, Joni Ernst and possibly Lisa Murkowski/Kelly Ayotte as well.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Of the choices not on the list, Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton are the most obvious choices.

That said, regardless of whether Trump wins or loses, I think the nominee in 2024 will be as different from him as possible and they might have to compete with a Kamala Harris or AOC candidacy, so I think they'll nominate a woman.

Nikki Haley is the strongest possible female candidate, but she'd do poorly in all southern primaries (except for South Carolina) and might have problems winning the nomination.

Sarah Palin, if she runs is still admired by the base, but memories of her 2008 VP campaign will be difficult to shake, especially in states like New Hampshire.

I'd watch for Kirsti Noem, Joni Ernst and possibly Lisa Murkowski/Kelly Ayotte as well.

I like AOC, but she's not going to be the Democratic nominee any time soon.  Maybe in twenty years, but not in this generation.

If the 2024 Republican nominee is a white guy (and I see no reason to think Pence won't be the nominee), then Nikki Haley might be a shoe-in for the veep slot.  I can't see a path to her winning the nomination in her own right, but being second on the 2024 ticket sets her up to be top of the ticket in 2028.   

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming Trump loses, one of Cotton, Hawley, or Tucker Carlson is most likely.  I really don't think Republicans would nominate another member of the Trump family right after a Trump loss.  I could maybe see Trump Jr. or Ivanka getting the nomination in 2028 or 2032.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Assuming Trump loses, one of Cotton, Hawley, or Tucker Carlson is most likely.  I really don't think Republicans would nominate another member of the Trump family right after a Trump loss.  I could maybe see Trump Jr. or Ivanka getting the nomination in 2028 or 2032.

I honestly can't see how Cotton or Hawley have any shot at all.  They both start with near zero name recognition with Republican voters (political insiders love them, but ask Marco Rubio how helpful that is), and their politics are basically indistinguishable from any other mainstream Republican who might choose to run.  Why would voters flock to them instead of some other generic nationalist reactionary?

Carlson, if he were to run (and I don't see a reason to think he actually will), could be interesting--well-known television personality willing to appeal to the worst aspects of our national character?  It's Trump 2.0, right?  Potentially, but I'm skeptical.  In 2016, Trump benefited from a divided field, and no single mainstream alternative emerged until it was too late.  (Side note:  If Paul Ryan had run, he'd be president right now.)  I expect that, given an obvious next-in-line to rally around (Pence), the party would fall in line in 2024 to keep another erratic media creation from disrupting the far right's project. 

[Agonized-Statism]

If it's someone drawing from Trump's rhetoric, they could try to duplicate Pence with Mike Pompeo as the running mate.

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming Trump loses, one of Cotton, Hawley, or Tucker Carlson is most likely.  I really don't think Republicans would nominate another member of the Trump family right after a Trump loss.  I could maybe see Trump Jr. or Ivanka getting the nomination in 2028 or 2032.

I honestly can't see how Cotton or Hawley have any shot at all.  They both start with near zero name recognition with Republican voters (political insiders love them, but ask Marco Rubio how helpful that is), and their politics are basically indistinguishable from any other mainstream Republican who might choose to run.  Why would voters flock to them instead of some other generic nationalist reactionary?

Carlson, if he were to run (and I don't see a reason to think he actually will), could be interesting--well-known television personality willing to appeal to the worst aspects of our national character?  It's Trump 2.0, right?  Potentially, but I'm skeptical.  In 2016, Trump benefited from a divided field, and no single mainstream alternative emerged until it was too late.  (Side note:  If Paul Ryan had run, he'd be president right now.)  I expect that, given an obvious next-in-line to rally around (Pence), the party would fall in line in 2024 to keep another erratic media creation from disrupting the far right's project. 

I don't think Pence would run after a Trump loss.  He likely would run after a Trump 2nd term, but I don't think he would have the primary locked down even then.  Pence will have a much harder time with Northerners who aren't particularly religious. 

[Heebie Jeebie]

Pence wants to be president, and you don't become president by not running. In 2024, Pence will start with near universal name recognition, he'll be strongly associated with Trump while also being broadly acceptable to party insiders. Plus, the Republican party isn't defined by competing factions the way the Democratic Party is--there's no institutional opposition to Pence waiting in the offing. It's his nomination to lose.

[McGarnagle]

Mike Pence will be the Republican nominee in 2024. He will lose quite badly to President Biden or (more likely) Vice President Harris.

As per the forty year cycle, Pence would, like Mondale, be the Midwestern former Vice President from the previous, unpopular administration.

Furthermore, I expect Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee in 2028. His approval may have been underwater recently - but he'll end up recovering and win a second term during the 2022 midterms. Practically the minute he leaves office in 2027, he will announce his Presidential campaign, but he will eventually lose to Harris, who will either be President or still Vice President at the time.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Mike Pence will be the Republican nominee in 2024. He will lose quite badly to President Biden or (more likely) Vice President Harris.

As per the forty year cycle, Pence would, like Mondale, be the Midwestern former Vice President from the previous, unpopular administration.

Furthermore, I expect Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee in 2028. His approval may have been underwater recently - but he'll end up recovering and win a second term during the 2022 midterms. Practically the minute he leaves office in 2027, he will announce his Presidential campaign, but he will eventually lose to Harris, who will either be President or still Vice President at the time.

I think DeSantis is a likely pick for Haley's running mate in 2028.  If/when that ticket loses to Harris, DeSantis will run to replace Scott in the Senate in 2030.  If he wins that race, he gets the presidential nomination in 2032.

[McGarnagle]

Mike Pence will be the Republican nominee in 2024. He will lose quite badly to President Biden or (more likely) Vice President Harris.

As per the forty year cycle, Pence would, like Mondale, be the Midwestern former Vice President from the previous, unpopular administration.

Furthermore, I expect Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee in 2028. His approval may have been underwater recently - but he'll end up recovering and win a second term during the 2022 midterms. Practically the minute he leaves office in 2027, he will announce his Presidential campaign, but he will eventually lose to Harris, who will either be President or still Vice President at the time.

I think DeSantis is a likely pick for Haley's running mate in 2028.  If/when that ticket loses to Harris, DeSantis will run to replace Scott in the Senate in 2030.  If he wins that race, he gets the presidential nomination in 2032.

Could be - but I think DeSantis/Haley is the more likely Republican ticket in 2028. 2024 would probably be Pence/Cotton.

[Canis]

My gut feeling has been Cotton since I saw him speak at the Kavanaugh hearings in 2018

[Agonized-Statism]

Pence wants to be president

Does he?

[brucejoel99]

Pence wants to be president

Does he?

Yes. Yes, he does.

[Canis]

Pence wants to be president

Does he?

Most Certainly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymeqZpm9fgM&ab_channel=RenegadeCut

[Vern]

It will be someone of color or a woman. My guess is a woman.

[Person Man]

It will definitely be Pence if Trump wins. Probably Pence if Trump loses but maybe Cruz has a chance. I don't think someone like Cotton, Carlson, Haley, or DeSantis has a chance until after a Democratic Administration.

[LabourJersey]

Really surprised that a plurality think Pence is the most likely nominee. His instinct to appear both to the Trumpists while also being a "kinder, gentler" conservative isn't convincing to either side, in my opinion anyway. Personally I think the only politician I've seen manage to appeal to both the hardcore Trumpers and the 2004-2012 GOP voters is probably Rick Scott. 

He also has literally no charisma, and if there's one thing I learned from Trump winning the nomination in '16 is that GOP voters want a guy with some charisma who loves to get them the conservative-nationalist red meat.

Cotton and Hawley have zero charisma, which makes me skeptical they'd win.

[RINO Tom]

Really surprised that a plurality think Pence is the most likely nominee. His instinct to appear both to the Trumpists while also being a "kinder, gentler" conservative isn't convincing to either side, in my opinion anyway. Personally I think the only politician I've seen manage to appeal to both the hardcore Trumpers and the 2004-2012 GOP voters is probably Rick Scott. 

He also has literally no charisma, and if there's one thing I learned from Trump winning the nomination in '16 is that GOP voters want a guy with some charisma who loves to get them the conservative-nationalist red meat.

Cotton and Hawley have zero charisma, which makes me skeptical they'd win.

I think it needs to be said again that these are 90% the exact same people...

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think Paul Ryan would have a good shot at the nomination if he were to run.

Edit:  Expanding on this...Ryan has a very high level of name recognition compared to many of the other potential candidates.  He bailed out of Congress at the right time--disappearing before impeachment, Covid, etc.  But, he was there to get the Trump tax cuts through, Republicans' only really legislative "win" of the last decade.  And while no one would ever call Ryan charismatic, he certainly has more charm than Cotton, Hawley, et. al. 

If I had to rank the top three Republicans I think are most likely to get the 2024 nomination, I'd say
1.  Pence
2.  Cruz
3.  Ryan