NC-ECU: Trump +2

[Calthrina950]

North Carolina and Georgia are not happening. Biden's ceiling is 2016 + Rust Belt 3 + FL + AZ.

It's really funny how people choose to believe literally one poll to fit their narrative when the averages tell a different story.

But you seem to be particularly confident about Biden's chances. Any poll that is not so favorable to Biden earns your disfavor; any poll which shows Trump down by significant margins receives your praise. Posters on this website who believe that Biden is going to win in a major landslide are abundant, just like the posters here who think Trump is on his way to an easy reelection.

[Umengus]

North Carolina and Georgia are not happening. Biden's ceiling is 2016 + Rust Belt 3 + FL + AZ.

It's really funny how people choose to believe literally one poll to fit their narrative when the averages tell a different story.

But you seem to be particularly confident about Biden's chances. Any poll that is not so favorable to Biden earns your disfavor; any poll which shows Trump down by significant margins receives your praise. Posters on this website who believe that Biden is going to win in a major landslide are abundant, just like the posters here who think Trump is on his way to an easy reelection.

"all polls which show a result different of my opinion is a junk poll" Welcome on this forum

[Pericles]

North Carolina and Georgia are not happening. Biden's ceiling is 2016 + Rust Belt 3 + FL + AZ.

It's really funny how people choose to believe literally one poll to fit their narrative when the averages tell a different story.

But you seem to be particularly confident about Biden's chances. Any poll that is not so favorable to Biden earns your disfavor; any poll which shows Trump down by significant margins receives your praise. Posters on this website who believe that Biden is going to win in a major landslide are abundant, just like the posters here who think Trump is on his way to an easy reelection.

You're making false equivalences again, a clear Biden win and a 2016 repeat are not just as likely and so they are not both equally valid takes.

This average shows wbrock's point.

[Calthrina950]

North Carolina and Georgia are not happening. Biden's ceiling is 2016 + Rust Belt 3 + FL + AZ.

It's really funny how people choose to believe literally one poll to fit their narrative when the averages tell a different story.

But you seem to be particularly confident about Biden's chances. Any poll that is not so favorable to Biden earns your disfavor; any poll which shows Trump down by significant margins receives your praise. Posters on this website who believe that Biden is going to win in a major landslide are abundant, just like the posters here who think Trump is on his way to an easy reelection.

You're making false equivalences again, a clear Biden win and a 2016 repeat are not just as likely and so they are not both equally valid takes.

This average shows wbrock's point.

False equivalences? Are you trying to suggest that I'm a hack? In the vast majority of the polling threads on this forum, we see the same patterns over and over again. Posters on here become giddy with excitement whenever we get a poll which says "Biden +15" or "Biden +12" or whatever. They claim that a Biden landslide is incoming, or that Trump is done for, or something along those lines. But whenever we get a poll (such as Emerson) which says "Biden +3" or "Biden +2", or even a state poll which shows Trump leading in Wisconsin or Florida or whatever, then people say that the "crosstabs are junk!" and that "this poll is crap!". Moreover-as you just did to me-they dismiss anyone who questions the narrative or even raises doubts.

Now, let me make clear that as things stand now, I believe that Biden is on track to win, and I've said before that the most likely outcome is Biden +7-8% in the popular vote, obtaining ~300-350 electoral votes. I've noted time and time again that Trump is underperforming in state-level polls compared to last time; that Biden is registering gains compared to Clinton among women, college-educated voters, and black voters; and that he's winning over the bulk of those third-party voters who disapproved of both Clinton and Trump last time. I posted a lengthy rebuttal to Elections Guy (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=389660.msg7524720#msg7524720) addressing these, and he happens to be one of the posters who thinks Trump's chances are being underestimated here (a possibility which we certainly shouldn't discount). As I've said, I'm not falling for either of the extremes.

[Badger]

North Carolina and Georgia are not happening. Biden's ceiling is 2016 + Rust Belt 3 + FL + AZ.

It's really funny how people choose to believe literally one poll to fit their narrative when the averages tell a different story.

Indeed. This: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=37

even with inclusion of this poll, says toss-up at BEST for Trump. If anything it says Tilt Biden (at this moment).

[Calthrina950]

North Carolina and Georgia are not happening. Biden's ceiling is 2016 + Rust Belt 3 + FL + AZ.

It's really funny how people choose to believe literally one poll to fit their narrative when the averages tell a different story.

But you seem to be particularly confident about Biden's chances. Any poll that is not so favorable to Biden earns your disfavor; any poll which shows Trump down by significant margins receives your praise. Posters on this website who believe that Biden is going to win in a major landslide are abundant, just like the posters here who think Trump is on his way to an easy reelection.

You're making false equivalences again, a clear Biden win and a 2016 repeat are not just as likely and so they are not both equally valid takes.

This average shows wbrock's point.

False equivalences? Are you trying to suggest that I'm a hack? In the vast majority of the polling threads on this forum, we see the same patterns over and over again. Posters on here become giddy with excitement whenever we get a poll which says "Biden +15" or "Biden +12" or whatever. They claim that a Biden landslide is incoming, or that Trump is done for, or something along those lines. But whenever we get a poll (such as Emerson) which says "Biden +3" or "Biden +2", or even a state poll which shows Trump leading in Wisconsin or Florida or whatever, then people say that the "crosstabs are junk!" and that "this poll is crap!". Moreover-as you just did to me-they dismiss anyone who questions the narrative or even raises doubts.

Now, let me make clear that as things stand now, I believe that Biden is on track to win, and I've said before that the most likely outcome is Biden +7-8% in the popular vote, obtaining ~300-350 electoral votes. I've noted time and time again that Trump is underperforming in state-level polls compared to last time; that Biden is registering gains compared to Clinton among women, college-educated voters, and black voters; and that he's winning over the bulk of those third-party voters who disapproved of both Clinton and Trump last time. I posted a lengthy rebuttal to Elections Guy (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=389660.msg7524720#msg7524720) addressing these, and he happens to be one of the posters who thinks Trump's chances are being underestimated here (a possibility which we certainly shouldn't discount). As I've said, I'm not falling for either of the extremes.

Adding to this, I don't understand the continuing hate here on Atlas for Real Clear Politics either. Pericles appears to have posted the FiveThirtyEight average, which shows Biden leading by 7.2% nationwide. The RCP average, as of tonight, shows a Biden lead of 7.2%-exactly the same! To reinforce my point further, here is a screenshot of that average:

As you can see, they've included polls both favorable and unfavorable to Biden-at least from this forum's viewpoint. You'll find Emerson with "Biden +2" and Rasmussen Reports with "Biden +4", but you'll also find the Economist/YouGov with "Biden +11", IBD/TIPP with "Biden +8", CNN with "Biden +8", The Hill/Harris X with "Biden +6", Quinnipac with "Biden +10", USA Today/Suffolk with "Biden +7", and Grinnell/Selzer with "Biden +8".  So again, those who say that RCP is "rigging" the numbers have little foundation for that belief.

[VAR]

Eh, this has Trump's approval at 49/49, which is still pretty high.

Fox News has it at 49/50. It’s surprising that he’s outperforming his approval rating in this poll but underperforming in the other.