CA-25 - GSG (D): Biden +7

[VAR]

Biden 50%
Trump 43%

https://www.newsweek.com/battle-key-california-congressional-seat-held-gop-virtual-tie-democratic-poll-says-1529569

[Person Man]

Migration patterns might be attributed to Biden not doing quite as well in California but being able to surge in the Southwest.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

August 25-29
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Was Clinton +7 in 2016.

[Dr. Arch]

It looks like Biden is not improving in CA, which is great news for vote distribution nationwide.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know what to think about this district. Biden +7 not really great since its an internal but Hillary did do REALLY well in CA that may not be easy to really improve that much on. This was also during some of the RNC too.

But also, CA polling is always underestimating Dems too.

NYT's poll had Katie Hill down 4 and she won decisively.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ca25-3.html

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like Biden is not improving in CA, which is great news for vote distribution nationwide.

It looks like Biden could be losing ground in SoCal.  I do wonder if he is gaining ground in NorCal, though?

[MT Treasurer]

It looks like Biden is not improving in CA, which is great news for vote distribution nationwide.

You extrapolate the results from a single poll of a single district into statewide swing/trend? Several polls have shown him exceeding Clinton's margin in the state, and it’s not the first time Democrats might underpoll in the state. Democrats aren’t "maxed out" in CA.

[Dr. Arch]

It looks like Biden is not improving in CA, which is great news for vote distribution nationwide.

You extrapolate the results from a single poll of a single district into statewide swing/trend? Several polls have shown him exceeding Clinton's margin in the state, and it’s not the first time Democrats might underpoll in the state. Democrats aren’t "maxed out" in CA.

I'm not extrapolating the results from a single poll into statewide swing/trend. The SD poll also seems to indicate that. Yes, Democrats might be underpolled this year once more, but we just won't know until the votes are counted. All we can do is speculate, and all of this can change, of course.

[MT Treasurer]

^1. There’s no reason to assume city / CD polls are more accurate than actual statewide polls.
2. If you believe that those two polls indicate that Biden isn’t "improving in CA", you’re clearly extrapolating into statewide swing, unless you were referring to something completely different when you said "It looks like Biden is not improving in CA, which is great news for vote distribution nationwide"?

[Dr. Arch]

^1. There’s no reason to assume city / CD polls are more accurate than actual statewide polls.
2. If you believe that those two polls indicate that Biden isn’t "improving in CA", you’re clearly extrapolating into statewide swing, unless you were referring to something completely different when you said "It looks like Biden is not improving in CA, which is great news for vote distribution nationwide"?

Well, what I said wasn't definitive. I said "it looks like," which means "it appears to be the case, but I'm not certain," by my interpretation.

[MT Treasurer]

^1. There’s no reason to assume city / CD polls are more accurate than actual statewide polls.
2. If you believe that those two polls indicate that Biden isn’t "improving in CA", you’re clearly extrapolating into statewide swing, unless you were referring to something completely different when you said "It looks like Biden is not improving in CA, which is great news for vote distribution nationwide"?

Well, what I said wasn't definitive. I said "it looks like," which means "it appears to be the case, but I'm not certain," by my interpretation.

It might trend slightly R this year, but I really don’t see how Biden doesn’t improve over Clinton by a few points. I think Trump has a significant EC advantage even in this election (and it’s stronger than Nate Silver seems to think), but I wouldn’t worry too much about if I were you because (a) it doesn’t mean much when Biden is ahead by 8 points, (b) GA/TX are incredibly close to flipping for good and AZ is already there, (c) Biden seems to be making major inroads with retirees/seniors, and FL might not lean R as much as in previous years, and (d) unlike what some Republicans seem to believe, the factors which will cause CA to swing Democratic will also affect the outcome in other, more competitive states like TX/GA/AZ/etc. where Republicans are extremely reliant on suburban + college-educated support, holding their own in the urban parts of the state, and maxing out the White vote, among other things. CA isn’t just magically going to swing 5+ points D while states like GA and AZ barely budge, and the GOP's EC advantage could quickly become a very short-lived one if they don’t figure out how to stop the bleeding in TX/GA/AZ and maybe even FL, which they cannot afford to lose under any circumstance, especially in the long run.

[Dr. Arch]

^1. There’s no reason to assume city / CD polls are more accurate than actual statewide polls.
2. If you believe that those two polls indicate that Biden isn’t "improving in CA", you’re clearly extrapolating into statewide swing, unless you were referring to something completely different when you said "It looks like Biden is not improving in CA, which is great news for vote distribution nationwide"?

Well, what I said wasn't definitive. I said "it looks like," which means "it appears to be the case, but I'm not certain," by my interpretation.

It might trend slightly R this year, but I really don’t see how Biden doesn’t improve over Clinton by a few points. I think Trump has a significant EC advantage even in this election (and it’s stronger than Nate Silver seems to think), but I wouldn’t worry too much about if I were you because (a) it doesn’t mean much when Biden is ahead by 8 points, (b) GA/TX are incredibly close to flipping for good and AZ is already there, (c) Biden seems to be making major inroads with retirees/seniors, and FL might not lean R as much as in previous years, and (d) unlike what some Republicans seem to believe, the factors which will cause CA to swing Democratic will also affect the outcome in other, more competitive states like TX/GA/AZ/etc. where Republicans are extremely reliant on suburban + college-educated support, holding their own in the urban parts of the state, and maxing out the White vote, among other things. CA isn’t just magically going to swing 5+ points D while states like GA and AZ barely budge, and the GOP's EC advantage could quickly become a very short-lived one if they don’t figure out how to stop the bleeding in TX/GA/AZ and maybe even FL, which they cannot afford to lose under any circumstance, especially in the long run.

All good points.