FL-16 - Data Targeting (R): Trump at 47%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/364421-poll-vern-buchanan-leads-margaret-good-by-double-digits-in-cd-16

August 27-29
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Trump 47%
Biden

Trump got 54% here in 2016.

[ElectionsGuy]

It is completely unknown what Trump's topline number is from that release. All it says is he gets 47% of the senior vote.

His lead holds across most demographics, with voters over 65 preferring the eight-term Congressman over Good by a 51-38 margin. His majority share outpaces that of President Donald Trump, whom 47% of CD 16 seniors say will be getting their vote.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Not terribly shocked by that CD topline.  

This district encompasses the whole of Manatee County - - pretty much a textbook example of Florida retiree-country.   

[DaleCooper]

Does anyone familiar with this district know what Trump's standing here would be with less than 50% of the 65+ vote?

[Person Man]

Does anyone familiar with this district know what Trump's standing here would be with less than 50% of the 65+ vote?

My family had a House on AMI. My guess is that this collaborates the environment. LBK, in Sarasota, has probably quite a few NeverTrumpers. My guess is that Trump might only win Sarasota by like 7 or 8 but might do about as well in Manatee as he will in Pasco. Biden might actually win Sarasota.l the city.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Does anyone familiar with this district know what Trump's standing here would be with less than 50% of the 65+ vote?

My family had a House on AMI. My guess is that this collaborates the environment. LBK, in Sarasota, has probably quite a few NeverTrumpers. My guess is that Trump might only win Sarasota by like 7 or 8 but might do about as well in Manatee as he will in Pasco. Biden might actually win Sarasota.l the city.

Outside of Sarasota proper, it's pretty conservative retiree-heavy like Manatee, right?

[Person Man]

Does anyone familiar with this district know what Trump's standing here would be with less than 50% of the 65+ vote?

My family had a House on AMI. My guess is that this collaborates the environment. LBK, in Sarasota, has probably quite a few NeverTrumpers. My guess is that Trump might only win Sarasota by like 7 or 8 but might do about as well in Manatee as he will in Pasco. Biden might actually win Sarasota.l the city.

Outside of Sarasota proper, it's pretty conservative retiree-heavy like Manatee, right?

Pretty much. Especially when you are on 41. LBK is unique in that it is sort of the Beverly Hills of the Gulf Coast. Maybe even more so than Naples.

[Skill and Chance]

Not terribly shocked by that CD topline.  

This district encompasses the whole of Manatee County - - pretty much a textbook example of Florida retiree-country.   

Yes, this would be ground zero for a Biden bump with seniors vs. a generic 2010's Dem.

[wbrocks67]

Wouldn't Trump only getting 47% of the senior vote in a FL district like this be.... not good?

[Skill and Chance]

Wouldn't Trump only getting 47% of the senior vote in a FL district like this be.... not good?

Yes, this explains why Biden is polling better than Clinton in Florida, even relative to the national polls.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wouldn't Trump only getting 47% of the senior vote in a FL district like this be.... not good?

There are presumably undecided voters who will break his way in this poll. I hope we get a full release.