* RBG dies or retires early
* Mass shooting
* New covid spike, most likely from schools (could make heavy suburban states more competitive)
* Another black person shot/killed by a white cop (and more riots that follow)
* Covid vaccine
* New sexual assault allegations
* Trump getting impeached again
* A major climate event that brings the climate change discussion back to the global spotlight (surprised Laura didn't do that)
* Major terrorist attack
* Stock market crashes
and that's all I can name off the top of my head
Agreed with all of these. It’s gonna take something really big and notable to change the dynamic. Jobs reports, death counts and protests won’t change anything if they haven’t already.
Aren't we 3 weeks from the debates? The debates are for 3 weeks and then we have another 3 weeks of campaigning.
Technically 12 days, just under two weeks, from final debate Oct 22 to Nov 3.
I don’t think the debates will change much, unless one candidate has a seriously dominant performance across all three, or if one has an enormously disastrous performance that they can’t recover from.
In 2016 and 2012, Clinton and Obama’s national polling lead the day before the 1st debate was almost identical to the final national popular vote margin.
In 2008 and 2004, Obama and Kerry ended up doing roughly 3 pts better on Election Day than their pre-debate polling margin.
I have a feeling this year will look like 2016/2012: Perhaps a lot of volatile polling between the debates in October, but when the dust settles we’ll end where we began in late Sept.
