What events would really change the calculation of the race?

[Tekken_Guy]

What kinds of events will really change the calculation of the race?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The ones that currently are.

[Del Tachi]

Improving jobs/economic number and less emphasis on Coronavirus as deaths/new infections continue to wane.

At least, that's what Democrats say they're worried about. 

[Ferguson97]

Legitimate covid-19 vaccine.

Major terrorist attack.

Health scare for either Biden or Trump.

[Bomster]

Improving jobs/economic number and less emphasis on Coronavirus as deaths/new infections continue to wane.

At least, that's what Democrats say they're worried about. 

This is from May.

[Del Tachi]

Improving jobs/economic number and less emphasis on Coronavirus as deaths/new infections continue to wane.

At least, that's what Democrats say they're worried about. 

This is from May.

What has fundamentally changed since then?  If anything, these concerns are even more present since we've seen three straight months of record-setting job growth and daily COVID deaths are 1/4 of their early May peak and still declining. 

[Alben Barkley]

The ones that currently are.

Nothing is changing the calculation of the race currently. An RNC that went over like a lead balloon and left Trump doing 12 points worse in Arizona does not mean the race is changing in his favor. Get a grip, people.

[Real Texan Politics]

* RBG dies or retires early
* Mass shooting
* New covid spike, most likely from schools (could make heavy suburban states more competitive)
* Another black person shot/killed by a white cop (and more riots that follow)
* Covid vaccine
* New sexual assault allegations
* Trump getting impeached again
* A major climate event that brings the climate change discussion back to the global spotlight (surprised Laura didn't do that)
* Major terrorist attack
* Stock market crashes

and that's all I can name off the top of my head

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Yellowstone goes boom.

[Buzz]

Vaccine, Hurricane strikes major city, More cities burned down by Antifa.

[Dark Horse]

Yellowstone goes boom.

if that happens, the last concern would be the election

[Rand]

Trump has another series of mini-strokes.

[Adjective-Statement]

* Another black person shot/killed by a white cop (and more protests that follow)

That's already happened a few times. I don't think another incident will have a different effect.

* A major climate event that brings the climate change discussion back to the global spotlight (surprised Laura didn't do that)

I think it would have if it wound up hitting Houston, but the casualties and damages were limited in rural Louisiana.

[Ferguson97]

* New covid spike, most likely from schools (could make heavy suburban states more competitive)

How would it make suburban states more competitive? Covid-19 spikes from schools are only going to hurt Trump.

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump or Biden dying from COVID, getting into a shooting war with either China or Russia, a high-profile celebrity of color (or an Obama) getting killed by a cop.

[Orwell]

* RBG dies or retires early
* Mass shooting
* New covid spike, most likely from schools (could make heavy suburban states more competitive)
* Another black person shot/killed by a white cop (and more riots that follow)
* Covid vaccine
* New sexual assault allegations
* Trump getting impeached again
* A major climate event that brings the climate change discussion back to the global spotlight (surprised Laura didn't do that)
* Major terrorist attack
* Stock market crashes

and that's all I can name off the top of my head

Could Biden/Trump do anything to gain/lose your support at this time?

[EastOfEden]

One of the candidates becoming ill with/dying from COVID.

[Red Wall]

Jobs report. They'll swing the election to trump.

[หมูเด้ง]

Maybe this?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/03/weekly-jobless-claims.html

I mean. It's probably going to be what it is tomorrow and Trump gets one more jobs report after that.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Jobs report. They'll swing the election to trump.

Nothing, Trump needs a 278 and MN, WI and PA aren't voting R without a robust economy. Trump lost the PVI last time around and got in on Gary Johnson, Benghanzi and 4.7 unemployment. Rs think that like in 2004 Dems need a 260 red wall state and Bush W solidified IA and OH, they don't, all Biden has to do is replicate Kerry numbers in the 278 blue wall states which has voted R 1 time in a generation

[SInNYC]

It wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if Trump announces the following in October:

A vaccine has been approved, with immunizations starting in 2 weeks, maybe even a few hundred the week before the election.

Bahrain or some such country has recognized Israel, and peace in the Middle East is finally here.

Great jobs reports one week.

Of course all of these will be lies or meaningless statements (so I guess they don't qualify as events), but what matters is how often they are repeated. This is also mitigated somewhat by early/mail voting.

[Gass3268]

Maybe this?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/03/weekly-jobless-claims.html

I mean. It's probably going to be what it is tomorrow and Trump gets one more jobs report after that.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsCo/status/1301276150585462785?s=20

[zzz]

* RBG dies or retires early
* Mass shooting
* New covid spike, most likely from schools (could make heavy suburban states more competitive)
* Another black person shot/killed by a white cop (and more riots that follow)
* Covid vaccine
* New sexual assault allegations
* Trump getting impeached again
* A major climate event that brings the climate change discussion back to the global spotlight (surprised Laura didn't do that)
* Major terrorist attack
* Stock market crashes

and that's all I can name off the top of my head

Agreed with all of these. It’s gonna take something really big and notable to change the dynamic. Jobs reports, death counts and protests won’t change anything if they haven’t already.

[หมูเด้ง]

* RBG dies or retires early
* Mass shooting
* New covid spike, most likely from schools (could make heavy suburban states more competitive)
* Another black person shot/killed by a white cop (and more riots that follow)
* Covid vaccine
* New sexual assault allegations
* Trump getting impeached again
* A major climate event that brings the climate change discussion back to the global spotlight (surprised Laura didn't do that)
* Major terrorist attack
* Stock market crashes

and that's all I can name off the top of my head

Agreed with all of these. It’s gonna take something really big and notable to change the dynamic. Jobs reports, death counts and protests won’t change anything if they haven’t already.

Aren't we 3 weeks from the debates? The debates are for 3 weeks and then we have another 3 weeks of campaigning.

[Crumpets]

A big public health scare akin to Hillary fainting at the 9/11 memorial. Everything else, even things like terrorism, COVID, and the economy feels pretty well baked-in. The only other thing I can think of would be some sort of major new legal issues for one of the candidates on an issue they haven't faced before.