Remember to add 4 points to the Democrat on top of any Nevada poll.
Surely pollsters are trying to account for this now? I would bet it's closer to D+2%, on average.
I mean there is no consistent number to add to the total, it's up to your personal preference. The end result though is consistent, because of two correlating factors that are either impossible to account for accurately in polls or are too expensive to correct for. The first issue is one of lower Hispanic response rates, a normal feature of Southwestern polling. Polls need to run not just in english but spanish, and even then these voters are often undervalued by weights or voter screens. The second issue through is unique to Nevada. A large section of the Nevada workforce is nocturnal, working the night shift at casinos or other entertainment outlets and sleeping during the day. The voters on the flipped schedule are mostly minorities, be they the previous Hispanics or African Americans from North Las Vegas. These voters are financially unreachable, since one would have to put in a more money to poll a smaller sample size of workers with unpredictable and personalized schedules.
