If Trump is down 5 in NV polling, a double digit win for Biden here is definitely in the cards. NV is pretty much Safe D at this point.
Obama did win Nevada by 12% in 2008, so it's plausible. That would put Nevada in roughly the same range as Virginia and Colorado, where polls suggest that Biden is leading Trump by low double digits.
That's true. I think Biden will win CO/VA by a bit more than NV (my guess is a 12-13% win for him in those states), but I'm pretty confident that NV will trend at least slightly Democratic this year.
I'd agree with this, and I view Jared Polis' 2018 gubernatorial map in Colorado as the template for how my home state will vote this year. Polls also suggest that Biden is up by mid-double digits in New Mexico, and a result for him similar to Obama's 2008 victory (when he beat McCain by 15%) or Lujan-Grisham's 2018 gubernatorial victory (when she won by 14% against Steve Pearce) there would also be very plausible. And coupling this with the fact that Biden could get as high as 65% in California, that Arizona is in play for Biden, and that Trump will win Utah by a safe but underwhelming margin, it's clear that the Southwest in general is a region where Trump stands to do worse than last time.
