Nevada-UNLV: Biden +5

[Tender Branson]

Too close for comfort ...

[Ferguson97]

Nevada is hard to poll. If I'm correct there is an issue with reaching Hispanic voters because of a language barrier.

How hard is it for a polling firm to hire a Spanish speaking workers? If you only speak English and you get an only-Spanish speaker, just transfer them to someone who does.

[wbrocks67]

Is Biden running ads here?

Yes, he has been

[Dakota Devil]

I haven't seen one ad from Biden here yet, but I don't watch a lot of TV outside of sports.  I am a bit worried by the large amount of growth here in Northern Nevada.  Tons of FC's (failed Californians) are invading the state and from my experience, they all tend to be Trump humpers. 

[Sbane]

Too close for comfort ...

It's Nevada, not Michigan.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden will win here between five and seven points.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I haven't seen one ad from Biden here yet, but I don't watch a lot of TV outside of sports.  I am a bit worried by the large amount of growth here in Northern Nevada.  Tons of FC's (failed Californians) are invading the state and from my experience, they all tend to be Trump humpers.  

The Nevada GOP's 2018 campaign strategy was built around the "Californication" of Nevada.

- Rosen did better than Masto & as well as Harry Reid in 2010
- Republicans lost all but 1 statewide office
- Came almost 0.5% of losing the SoS race
- Been reduced to their weakest standing in the state legislature in nearly 40 years

[wbrocks67]

Reminder that the RCP average was literally off 5% in favor of Dems in 2018.

[Hollywood]

Nevada is hard to poll. If I'm correct there is an issue with reaching Hispanic voters because of a language barrier.

How hard is it for a polling firm to hire a Spanish speaking workers? If you only speak English and you get an only-Spanish speaker, just transfer them to someone who does.

How many people only speak Spanish in Nevada?  60% of Spanish Speakers over the age of 5 say they can speak English "very well", and the vast majority of the dwindling 230 thousand that can't speak "very well" are likely classified as undocumented, and some are likely to be under the voting age.  These issues have been addressed in this and other polls, and the pollsters either over or under-compensate for this factor.  This poll adds an extra 1.5-2% of Hispanic voters.   https://statisticalatlas.com/state/Nevada/Languages.   

This poll is a mess for many other reasons, and this is indicated by the 2016/2018 election data.  They give Trump his one of two polling advantages by oversampling Trump v. Clinton voters by 3.2% (37-34% vs 46-44 in 2016), but they eliminate 3.5-5.5% of his rural support in the all the "other" counties, and increase the number of voters in Washoe and Clark County by 6%.  They basically take 1.75-3.25 points away from Trump, and give it to Biden for a 5.5 point swing.  They added the 1.5% of "other" gender voters that swing another point to Biden instead of putting half into the female and another half into the male column, despite records showing only .5% of residents in Nevada are "other", and who knows how many can or will vote.  Whatever.  All this being said, Biden probably has a 3-4 points edge over Trump.  A lot of times these garbage polls can indicate enthusiasm, and it seems the ones out of Nevada for over a year now have demonstrated that Biden has a weak base of support among Hispanics.  This poll has it 42-29%, and the poll cited below also showed weak support for him a month or two after the caucus. 
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-sisolak-looks-strong-despite-shutdown-biden-has-small-lead-over-trump

[South Dakota Democrat]

Too close for comfort ...

You gotta be trolling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Devestating poll, for Trump, Trump needs NV and NH and he can win the EC college without winning a rust belt, just like NM its a bellweather, and along with NM, all three have Dem state officeholders

[Andy Hine]

Devestating poll, for Trump, Trump needs NV and NH and he can win the EC college without winning a rust belt, just like NM its a bellweather, and along with NM, all three have Dem state officeholders

Stop posting.