Clinton for a 3rd term in 2000

[Orwell]

How would it look if Clinton ran for a 3rd term in 2000, obviously assuming everything plays out the same as in our timeline the only difference is that there is no 22nd amendment. Who would the GOP nominee be? Would he win? Would he face a primary challenge from the left?

[Alben Barkley]

Easy Clinton win.

Bush is still probably the GOP nominee. And no challenge from the left. Even Gore didn’t get a serious challenge (Bradley wasn’t one), in large part just because Clinton endorsed him.

Clinton was extremely popular; the impeachment more or less backfired if anything, and the economy was booming. Gore’s fatal mistake was DISTANCING himself from an extremely popular incumbent president much more charismatic than he was. And he STILL almost won, mainly from being associated with Clinton anyway.

He’d probably do at least this well:

[dw93]

Clinton wins, but it's much closer than 1992 or 1996 due to the 8 year itch, Bush being a better campaigner than his Father and Dole, and a lack of Perot:

President Bill Clinton: 338 EV, 49.5% PV
Governor George W. Bush: 200 EV, 47%

I can also see Gore declining to seek a third term as VP due to anger over Clinton running again rather than giving Gore a chance.

[Alben Barkley]

Clinton wins, but it's much closer than 1992 or 1996 due to the 8 year itch, Bush being a better campaigner than his Father and Dole, and a lack of Perot:

President Bill Clinton: 338 EV, 49.5% PV
Governor George W. Bush: 200 EV, 47%

I can also see Gore declining to seek a third term as VP due to anger over Clinton running again rather than giving Gore a chance.

I don’t buy that LA and WV would go from easy double digit Clinton wins in 1996 to Clinton losses in 2000. They were relatively close even with Gore. Clinton definitely would have held them. TN, AZ, and CO are more debatable. But I don’t see Clinton losing LA or WV. They may trend away from him somewhat, sure. (Especially because of his coal and oil regulations.) But I still think he holds on to them.

As for the eight year itch, due to Clinton’s sky high popularity I see this more like Reagan running again in 1988 than anything, when he probably would have done even better than HW did running for a de facto third Reagan term.

Also Perot took more votes from Clinton, at least in 1992. Nader may take some left-wing votes from him, however. But it would mostly be in safe states where it wouldn’t matter. Florida would be a comfortable Clinton win, not come down to 537 votes.

[brucejoel99]

He'd win the nomination without any primary opposition, & would then beat W. in the general.

[NewYorkExpress]

Clinton only got the sky-high popularity he had because he was leaving office at the time (much like how Obama's popularity shot up as he left office)

He still wins the nomination easily (maybe Bradley runs, because of the Lewinsky scandal and it's aftermath, but it's unlikely).

I think Bush picks someone other than Cheney if he's facing an incumbent President.

The other big change is that with Bill running for President, Hillary Clinton does not run for the Senate in New York, meaning she won't be running for President in 2008 (at least not with any degree of credibility)

Bill Clinton/Al Gore 49% 283 EV
George W. Bush/Tom Ridge 47.6% 255 EV

[dw93]

Clinton only got the sky-high popularity he had because he was leaving office at the time (much like how Obama's popularity shot up as he left office)

He still wins the nomination easily (maybe Bradley runs, because of the Lewinsky scandal and it's aftermath, but it's unlikely).

I think Bush picks someone other than Cheney if he's facing an incumbent President.

The other big change is that with Bill running for President, Hillary Clinton does not run for the Senate in New York, meaning she won't be running for President in 2008 (at least not with any degree of credibility)

Bill Clinton/Al Gore 49% 283 EV
George W. Bush/Tom Ridge 47.6% 255 EV

Bush would probably go with his runner up choice in the event Cheney declined, John Danforth.

[NewYorkExpress]

Clinton only got the sky-high popularity he had because he was leaving office at the time (much like how Obama's popularity shot up as he left office)

He still wins the nomination easily (maybe Bradley runs, because of the Lewinsky scandal and it's aftermath, but it's unlikely).

I think Bush picks someone other than Cheney if he's facing an incumbent President.

The other big change is that with Bill running for President, Hillary Clinton does not run for the Senate in New York, meaning she won't be running for President in 2008 (at least not with any degree of credibility)

Bill Clinton/Al Gore 49% 283 EV
George W. Bush/Tom Ridge 47.6% 255 EV

Bush would probably go with his runner up choice in the event Cheney declined, John Danforth.

I'm assuming that Bush doesn't consider picking Cheney in the first place.

Honestly, for Bush's needs, Ashcroft would have been a better choice than Danforth.

[KYRockefeller]

No way Clinton wins Florida in 2000 after the Elian Gonzalez mess, at least in my view.  I think a clash with Bush would have been incredibly entertaining to follow, though, because both guys were pretty skilled campaigners.

[MT Treasurer]

Man, people really forget how atrocious Clinton's personal favorability ratings were in 2000 and how much Clinton fatigue actually hurt Gore. He definitely wouldn’t have won "easily", especially against someone placing such a great emphasis on moral leadership/values and without Perot on the ballot.

Gore never actively distanced himself from Clinton in 2000 (this is a myth), but he knew that he had to walk a tightrope with his association with Clinton, and he (almost) managed pull it off in the end after trailing in the national polls for most of the year (often by large margins). His campaign was actually pretty well-run.

1996 really inflated Clinton's strength, it’s hard to think of a worse campaign in recent history than that run by Dole.

[President Johnson]

Bubba had 65% approval rating in 2000. It would have been lower if could run again, but I have no doubt he would have won quite handily. He was a great campaigner.

✓ President William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 339 EV. (50.44%)
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Former Defense Secretary Richard B. Cheney (R-WY): 199 EV. (46.27%)