FL-16 - Data Targeting (R): Buchanan +16%, Generic R +9%
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  FL-16 - Data Targeting (R): Buchanan +16%, Generic R +9%
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Author Topic: FL-16 - Data Targeting (R): Buchanan +16%, Generic R +9%  (Read 228 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 03, 2020, 06:35:02 AM »

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/364421-poll-vern-buchanan-leads-margaret-good-by-double-digits-in-cd-16

August 27-29
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Buchanan 51%
Good 36%

Generic R 48%
Generic D 39%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2020, 07:04:11 AM »

Buchanan won 9% in 2018, so the generic # seems fine, but Buchanan's 16% is obviously inflated
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2020, 07:44:28 AM »

Buchanan is probably up by less than this, but even with it being an infernal, barring contradictory numbers from Good’s campaign, it still seems that he’s likely on track for an 8-10% win.  

That’s too bad b/c IIRC Buchanan is extremely corrupt and I’d hoped this one might be a reach seat where we with an A-list recruit where could take out a really awful incumbent in a wave.  Instead, it may be time to take this seat off the board altogether barring new information/polling.  

Likely R -> Safe R
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2020, 07:52:22 AM »


Buchanan (-2)
Good (+2)

Changes from Jan 14-16 poll.
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