NH-UNH: Messner +21 (R primary), Shaheen +16/+18

[VAR]

Aug 28-Sep 1, 1889 LV

Shaheen (D, inc.) 53% (-1)
Bolduc (R) 37% (+2)

Shaheen (D, inc.) 54% (nc)
Messner (R) 36% (+1)

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1605&context=survey_center_polls

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with July 16-28 poll.

General election MoE: 2.3%

V.S. Bolduc
O'Donnell (L) 4% (+4% from previous survey's "another candidate")
Don't know/not sure 6% (-4%)

V.S. Messner
O'Donnell (L) 3% (+2% from previous survey's "another candidate")
Don't know/not sure 3% (-8%)

Republican Primary
703 likely primary voters
MoE: 3.7%

Messner 52%
Bolduc 31%
Some other candidate 0%
Don't know/not sure 17%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Anyway, these leads are truly grim for Republicans and well into safe D territory, but only UNH has polled the race within the last year for either candidate. "Generic" polls from St. Anselm have a much closer race with the Republican trailing the Democrat by 5% as of August.

It's almost certainly safe D and definitely will be with Messner as the nominee, but it's possible that this pollster is horribly far off the mark and that might leave it as likely bordering on safe for Bolduc.

[SnowLabrador]

It's a very good thing Sununu didn't run.