2024: Larry Hogan vs. Kamala Harris

[bagelman]

VP Harris wins the nomination after the grassroots wing of the party is divided between the furthest Left (AOC/Bowman) in second and a sort of moderate populist candidate in third. The moderate DLC types all back Harris.

The Republican primaries are more interesting, with Logan defeating a hard right Trumpist and a hard right southern fried SoCon with landslide wins in blue states. The convention is a mess and Hogan is forced to walk a tightrope between his rabid base and swing voters. However, Harris is viewed by swing voters as similar in personality and character to HRC - perhaps even worse, but this is balanced out by the lack of Benghazi and other old longstanding opposition.

Can Hogan pull through for the GOP?

[DaWN]

Easy Harris win as angry Trumpists vote third party or stay at home. Probably.

[Kingpoleon]

334: Larry Hogan/Gov. Walter Blackman(AZ) - 51.4%
204: Kamala Harris/Rep. Elissa Slotkin(MI) - 45.7%
Others - 2.9%

Hogan wins ~10% of the black vote, and ~40% of the Hispanic vote.

[Suburbia]

334: Larry Hogan/Gov. Walter Blackman(AZ) - 51.4%
204: Kamala Harris/Rep. Elissa Slotkin(MI) - 45.7%
Others - 2.9%

Hogan wins ~10% of the black vote, and ~40% of the Hispanic vote.

Would Hogan win NJ? MD?

If Menendez retires in 2024, and NJ Dems run a lackluster Senate candidate, and the GOP picks Jen Beck or Bill Baroni, NJ could be in play

[bagelman]

334: Larry Hogan/Gov. Walter Blackman(AZ) - 51.4%
204: Kamala Harris/Rep. Elissa Slotkin(MI) - 45.7%
Others - 2.9%

Hogan wins ~10% of the black vote, and ~40% of the Hispanic vote.

Would Hogan win NJ? MD?

If Menendez retires in 2024, and NJ Dems run a lackluster Senate candidate, and the GOP picks Jen Beck or Bill Baroni, NJ could be in play

Probably not. Hogan so much as smiles in the direction of the GOP base and those states are gone.

[Suburbia]

334: Larry Hogan/Gov. Walter Blackman(AZ) - 51.4%
204: Kamala Harris/Rep. Elissa Slotkin(MI) - 45.7%
Others - 2.9%

Hogan wins ~10% of the black vote, and ~40% of the Hispanic vote.

Would Hogan win NJ? MD?

If Menendez retires in 2024, and NJ Dems run a lackluster Senate candidate, and the GOP picks Jen Beck or Bill Baroni, NJ could be in play

Probably not. Hogan so much as smiles in the direction of the GOP base and those states are gone.

Would Hogan get 45% in NJ?

So you are saying Hogan follows the GOP base and goes Trumpian?

[bagelman]

334: Larry Hogan/Gov. Walter Blackman(AZ) - 51.4%
204: Kamala Harris/Rep. Elissa Slotkin(MI) - 45.7%
Others - 2.9%

Hogan wins ~10% of the black vote, and ~40% of the Hispanic vote.

Would Hogan win NJ? MD?

If Menendez retires in 2024, and NJ Dems run a lackluster Senate candidate, and the GOP picks Jen Beck or Bill Baroni, NJ could be in play

Probably not. Hogan so much as smiles in the direction of the GOP base and those states are gone.

Would Hogan get 45% in NJ?

So you are saying Hogan follows the GOP base and goes Trumpian?

I'm saying that NJ is Safe D and is Likely D in a true landslide.

[KaiserDave]

There's no way Hogan wins. You think the Trump bloc votes for him?

[Suburbia]

There's no way Hogan wins. You think the Trump bloc votes for him?

Does he pick Hawley to consolidate the GOP base?

Hogan's wife is an Asian woman, do they despise that?

[bagelman]

There's no way Hogan wins. You think the Trump bloc votes for him?

Not really. The faint hope for Hogan to win the nomination is that the GOP is over Trump, and what Trumpists are left accept Hogan as the better alternative to a serious attempt at Cruzite revivalism. Trump's base in the 2016 primary was split between northern moderate populists and "cultural conservatives" (wink) responsible for his pluralities in the deep south. Hogan could win the first group against the right opponent. Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, or Lindsey Graham won't win New Hampshire.

If Hogan is actually nominated, I think he crushes Harris, an awful candidate. Even if he's not the favorite of the wingnuts, in the event he is nominated Republicans will fall in line and he will find the votes in the upper midwest to win.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=3aig

Above has MI and NC as closest states.

[KYRockefeller]

If Hogan is nominated, he'd have a great chance of winning a general election.  Problem is that he has like zero chance of getting nominated as he won't have enough of a base to get to that point.  To get it, he'd have to win NH and then have the more conservative candidates keep trading blows/exchanging wins as he scooped up delegates, almost like a Trump 2016 scenario in ideological reverse.  With a more conservative VP, I could see that reconciling enough people in the party to go his way.

[S019]

Hogan would win as he hangs on to the Sunbelt and makes gains in the Midwest