Carter defeats Reagan in 1980

[Chips]

Carter: 322 electoral votes and 47% of the popular vote
Reagan: 216 electoral votes and 47% of the popular vote

How different would the world be today had this happened?

[Alben Barkley]

Well I don’t know if that map could have actually happened, but supposing it did, something big probably had to change already. Like the Iran hostage crisis is resolved early somehow or something.

Regardless, a Carter win means that he’ll be in office during the economic recovery that largely was the result of the actions of his own appointed Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker. That means Democrats will be well-positioned to win again in 1984. This means a very different timeline in which Reaganomics never happens and America is probably a lot less conservative today. Carter being remembered more fondly also might even keep the South Democratic for longer.

[President Biden Democrat]

This would have never happened but if it did, our country would be very different. For one, Reagan would never be president and I doubt that his policies would ever be put into place. In 1984, Mondale would likely be the Democratic nominee, and the Republican nominee could be Bush, or Kemp, or somebody else like that. A Democrat would be elected in 1992, maybe still Bill Clinton. The impact of having one more term of Carter, and none of Reagan and his conservative policies would be huge.

[brucejoel99]

Well I don’t know if that map could have actually happened, but supposing it did, something big probably had to change already. Like the Iran hostage crisis is resolved early somehow or something.

Regardless, a Carter win means that he’ll be in office during the economic recovery that largely was the result of the actions of his own appointed Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker. That means Democrats will be well-positioned to win again in 1984. This means a very different timeline in which Reaganomics never happens and America is probably a lot less conservative today. Carter being remembered more fondly also might even keep the South Democratic for longer.

Perhaps something happened to discredit Reagan, too? (Maybe it was age-related?)

And yeah, once inflation comes under control, I think the Democrats (&, presumably, Mondale as the heir-apparent) would have a clear advantage in 1984.

[dw93]

If Carter wins, it's a nail biter. 1982 is 1994 12 years early as the economy is gonna be in the tank, so Senate Majority Leader Baker and Speaker Bob Michel in January 1983. The economy recovers through 1983 and 1984 so the Democrats, after being written off in 1982, actually have a chance at holding the Presidency. Mondale runs as Carter's heir apparent while the GOP nominates Dole, Baker, du Pont, Kemp, or Bush. Baker, Bush, or Kemp have a chance at eeking out a win against Mondale, while Dole or du Pont would lose. Whichever party wins in 1984 wins in 1988 and whichever loses  in 1984 wins the Presidency (and Congress if they don't have it already) in 1992, so the Democrats have a shot at 16 years in the Presidency in a Carter wins 1980 scenario.

[KYRockefeller]

I'd have to think if Mondale lost to a 1984 GOP challenger that we might get a Clinton run four years early.

[McGarnagle]

I'd take it for this to happen, Carter would have to successfully have the hostages rescued, and the economy would have to show signs of improvement before the election.

I'd expect this to happen afterwards

39 - President Jimmy Carter (D-GA), 1977-1985
Carter/Mondale (D) defeats Ford/Dole (R) in 1976
Carter/Mondale (D) defeats Reagan/Bush (R) in 1980

Carter narrowly defeats Reagan in 1980, and his popularity as well as the economy improves during his second term. However, Vice President Mondale loses a close election to the highly popular Howard Baker.

40 - President Howard Baker (R-TN), 1985-1993
Baker/Laxalt (R) defeats Mondale/Hart (D) in 1984
Baker/Laxalt (R) defeats Dukakis/Harkin (D) in 1988

President Baker wins a second term, defeating Michael Dukakis in 1988, successfully billing himself as a "conservative who can work across the aisle". However, Lloyd Bentsen defeats Vice President Laxalt in 1992 amid a recession.

41 - President Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX), 1993-2001
Bentsen/Gore (D) defeats Laxalt/Wilson (R) in 1992
Bentsen/Gore (D) defeats Dole/Lugar (R) in 1996

Running as a moderate Democrat, President Bentsen easily defeats Bob Dole in 1996 and is re-elected. During Bentsen's terms, the economy roars and the internet becomes commonplace in households around the country.

42 - President John McCain (R-AZ), 2001-2009
McCain/Specter (R) defeats Gore/Dodd (D) in 2000
McCain/Specter (R) defeats Edwards/Clark (D) in 2004

John McCain runs as a moderate conservative focused on campaign finance reform, and defeats Al Gore in 2000 with a majority of the popular vote. In response to 9/11, McCain invades Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden is killed in the Battle of Tora Bora on December 11, 2001, three months after the attacks. McCain bombs Baghdad in 2003, but does not launch a ground invasion or overthrow Saddam Hussein. President McCain is easily re-elected over John Edwards in 2004, but his popularity diminishes during his second term as the federal response to Hurricane Katrina is heavily criticized, and an economic recession hits in 2008. Vice President Specter declines to run in 2008, citing his recent cancer diagnosis.

43 - President John Kerry (D-MA), 2009-2013
Kerry/Vilsack (D) defeats Huckabee/Brownback (R) in 2008
Romney/Ryan (R) defeats Kerry/Vilsack (D) in 2012

John Kerry defeats Mike Huckabee handily in 2008, but his term is consumed with recovering from the great recession. President Kerry manages to get Congress to pass his signature health care program, known as Kerrycare, which reduced the number of uninsured Americans by millions. However, the slow economic recovery sealed his political fate, and he was narrowly defeated by Mitt Romney in 2012.

44 - President Mitt Romney (R-MA), 2013-2021
Romney/Ryan (R) defeats Kerry/Vilsack (D) in 2012
Romney/Ryan (R) defeats Warner/Richardson (D) in 2016

President Romney is middling in popularity, but the economy improves enough to where he defeats Mark Warner in 2016, winning a second term. Despite a less disastrous response to the COVID-19 pandemic than Trump IRL, the tide turns against the Republicans, and Barack Obama defeats Vice President Ryan in 2020.

45 - President Barack Obama (D-IL), 2021-2029
Obama/Feingold (D) defeats Ryan/Rubio (R) in 2020
Obama/Feingold (D) defeats Cruz/Hawley (R) in 2024

Obama campaigns on expanding Kerrycare to include a public option, raising the federal minimum wage, and police reform. President Obama proves to be popuar, easily defeating Ted Cruz in 2024.

[Alben Barkley]

That sounds like a better timeline than what we got. Although given all the butterfly effects that would occur from Carter winning, I’m not sure if it would be that similar, with so many nominees the same, 9/11 still happening and recessions still happening at the same time, etc. Reagan had a HUGE impact on the US after all, second only to FDR in influence of 20th century presidents. Him never being president, replaced by a moderate like Baker, would have major repercussions on our economic and foreign policy going forward among other things. So unclear if Bin Laden ever attacks us, economic crises unfold for the same reasons, etc. The GOP also might never have tied itself so closely to the evangelicals/Christian Right, so social conservatism might not have taken off. You also overlook how the Cold War goes down. I think the Soviet Union was doomed to fail, but some people do credit Reagan and Bush with accelerating its downfall, so the timeline might be different and so might Russia be today.

Also, I still think Mondale or any Democrat would win in 1984 if the economy was as good that year as it was real life but Carter got the credit. That would likey mean AIDS gets a better response, among other things. And I question why McCain would bomb Baghdad yet have no intent to overthrow Saddam. I think either he wouldn’t touch Iraq at all, not going off the same concocted “intelligence” W did, or he would go full regime change.

[Agonized-Statism]

Deregulation and neoliberalism were an inevitability since the collapse of the New Deal Coalition in 1968- in fact, you could say the Reagan Era was already underway under Carter- we just wouldn't attach the movement to Reagan. Possibly Kemp or a New Democrat like Clinton or Gary Hart.

On Carter winning 1980, there was a great alternate history I read somewhere called "The Third Coming of Nixon"- basically, Nixon returns yet again as a congressman (or senator, I forget) and becomes a thorn in Reagan's side. That could be one way to take him down.