TX Railroad Commissioner - Global Strategy Group/Castañeda internal: Wright +6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.chrystafortexas.com/media/press/TX_RR_Commission_Polling_Memo_F08.14.20.pdf

August 11-13, 2020
700 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

One of three seats on the commission is up for election this year.

Jim Wright (R) - 37%
Christy Castañeda (D) - 31%
Matt Sterett (L) - 8%
Undecided - 24%

Undecided voters in this poll apparently lean Democratic.

[President Johnson]

Too many undecideds. That being said, not even a lot of folks interested in politics take close attention to races like these. I honestly think in most states just too many posts are elected offices. Vast majority of statewide executive officers should be appointed by the governor and be subject to approval by the state senate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Too many undecideds. That being said, not even a lot of folks interested in politics take close attention to races like these.

That is why there are so many undecided voters. Both candidates have poor name ID, although the Republican's is better and he happens to share the name of a former prominent Democrat in TX.

[Badger]

Too many undecideds. That being said, not even a lot of folks interested in politics take close attention to races like these.

That is why there are so many undecided voters. Both candidates have poor name ID, although the Republican's is better and he happens to share the name of a former prominent Democrat in TX.

That prominent Democrat left office over 30 years ago under a scandal, and only represented the Fort Worth area in Congress. Yes, he was more famous for being speaker, but I repeat, over 30 years ago.

There probably aren't a thousand voters and all Texas whose vote is going to be changed over confusing Republican nominee with the former speaker Jim Wright. A paragraph that said, this could be an interesting race. Be Railroad Commission, which of course stopped regulating railroads in 2005, but in fact regulates natural resources including oil and gas in Texas, it is a vastly underestimated powerful body. This is Jim Wright absolutely shocked the political establishment by beating an incumbent who spent about 2 million on his campaign after he himself spent less than $30,000. It was an impressive feat. Fortunately, it may give Democrats and opening.

Whatever rights biggest campaign promises was that he was not going to accept Amy campaign contributions from entities and businesses home Railroad Commission regulated. Since then though, he's gone back on that promise and accepted Oodles of bucks from the energy Industries. He has walked back just say he won't vote on any commission measures where are the company in question had donated him oh, and I quote, shortly, before the vote. Of course he refuses to Define what shortly means. Complete sleazebag.

[Yellowhammer]

Safe D. Texas = California 2.0

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Safe D. Texas = California 2.0

I think the cute act is getting a bit stale.

[Yellowhammer]

Safe D. Texas = California 2.0

I think the cute act is getting a bit stale.

What are you talking about? Texas is gone for the GOP for at least the next few decades, perhaps forever. I honestly don't see them winning any more statewide races any time soon.

[WD]

Safe D. Texas = California 2.0

I think the cute act is getting a bit stale.

What are you talking about? Texas is gone for the GOP for at least the next few decades, perhaps forever. I honestly don't see them winning any more statewide races any time soon.

Sure, but to say that Texas will be as Democratic as CA (lol) or that its Safe D is absurd

[Yellowhammer]

Safe D. Texas = California 2.0

I think the cute act is getting a bit stale.

What are you talking about? Texas is gone for the GOP for at least the next few decades, perhaps forever. I honestly don't see them winning any more statewide races any time soon.

Sure, but to say that Texas will be as Democratic as CA (lol) or that its Safe D is absurd

It isn't as safe as CA yet, but it will be in a few election cycles. In 2020 TX will be about as dem as CA was in 2004.

[WD]

Safe D. Texas = California 2.0

I think the cute act is getting a bit stale.

What are you talking about? Texas is gone for the GOP for at least the next few decades, perhaps forever. I honestly don't see them winning any more statewide races any time soon.

Sure, but to say that Texas will be as Democratic as CA (lol) or that its Safe D is absurd

It isn't as safe as CA yet, but it will be in a few election cycles. In 2020 TX will be about as dem as CA was in 2004.

Your not as funny as you think you are.

[Yellowhammer]

Safe D. Texas = California 2.0

I think the cute act is getting a bit stale.

What are you talking about? Texas is gone for the GOP for at least the next few decades, perhaps forever. I honestly don't see them winning any more statewide races any time soon.

Sure, but to say that Texas will be as Democratic as CA (lol) or that its Safe D is absurd

It isn't as safe as CA yet, but it will be in a few election cycles. In 2020 TX will be about as dem as CA was in 2004.

Your not as funny as you think you are.

I'm not trying to be "funny." Get back to me in 10 years when Texas is a California or New York-tier democratic base state under total Democratic control.

[Former President tack50]

Safe D. Texas = California 2.0

I think the cute act is getting a bit stale.

What are you talking about? Texas is gone for the GOP for at least the next few decades, perhaps forever. I honestly don't see them winning any more statewide races any time soon.

Sure, but to say that Texas will be as Democratic as CA (lol) or that its Safe D is absurd

It isn't as safe as CA yet, but it will be in a few election cycles. In 2020 TX will be about as dem as CA was in 2004.

In the 2000 election, CA voted for Gore by 12 when he won the PV by 1 (D+11)
In the 2004 election, CA voted for Kerry by 12 while Bush won the PV by 2 (D+14)
In the 2008 election, CA voted for Obama by 24 while he won the PV by 7 (D+17)

Applying the same trends to TX and taking the current RCP average of Biden+7 in the US at large and :

In the 2016 election, TX voted for Trump by 9 while Clinton won the PV by 2 (R+11)
In the 2020 election, TX will vote for Trump by 1 because Biden is winning the PV by 7 (R+8)
In the 2024 election, TX will vote 5 points to the right of the US at large (R+5)

CA leaned not just Democratic, but Safe Democratic already by 2000. TX is at worst Very Likely R on an even election and will remain so until at least the 2030s (and this assumes trends won't change!), it just happens that 2020 as of now is not an even election.

And actually, it seems TX is actually trending slower than that!

The current RCP average has TX as Trump+3.5 while Biden is up in the US at large by 7.5. So if that was perfectly accurate, TX would actually not trend at all! (Remaining at R+11)

[YE]

Texas is on a trajectory where the state could resemble California at some point if coalitions hold but it's not California yet and PVI probably only moves slightly D due to it being somewhat inealastic. Texas probably starts voting left of the nation around 2028 or so.

[Samof94]

I could easily see Texas becoming like Arizona is now in a few years, where a Democrat won a senate race and Trump is unlikely to win there and barely won last time.