Democracy Institute: Trump +3 Nationally, +7 in Battlegrounds, +3 in FL and MN, +4 in NH

[OSR stands with Israel]

Dont know how reliable this poll is but:

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1299923590410690562

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1299924227785596928

[Tender Branson]

Untested British "pollster" for a dubious British tabloid newspaper ...

Do they even post a methodology or some crosstabs ?

[Ronnie]

For context, this pollster had Trump at +2 in early August.  It's pretty clear that they're cooking the books for Trump to skew polling averages, just like Trafalgar.  Pathetic that conservatives feel like they have to resort to these measures.

[soundchaser]

Wow, a big Trump bump from their last poll! (Which had him winning by 2.) I do love that they refer to the margin within the states themselves as the “popular vote.”

[Horus]

Even I don't believe this. Way too Trump friendly and clearly has an agenda.

[Woody]

OMG

NUT

[n1240]

They're a fake pollster - I'm pretty sure someone emailed 538 about it and they hinted it being fake and the race crosstabs are more or less impossible given the topline.



Somehow Biden is at 45% among white voters despite also having a topline result of 45%

[soundchaser]

Also, if Biden is getting 45% of the white vote, Trump’s getting the sh**t kicked out of him nationally.

[Tender Branson]

If you use a standard 65% White, 16% Hispanic, 14% Black sample - you get:

48% Biden
43% Trump

Biden +5.

In a 70-13-12 sample, its:

47% Biden
44% Trump

Biden +3.

So much to this "high quality" poll ...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lol the obvious junkiness won't prevent this thread from getting to 3+ pages by tomorrow night

[soundchaser]

And not to unskew even further, but there’s almost no way Trump more than doubles his 2016 performance with black voters after the events of this year. Just not happening.

[Hammy]

The only way this even works to Biden 46% is if he gets literally zero Asian votes. But since their existence was completely ignored the only result these crosstabs would realistically produce is Biden 46-43 and that's if you count 100% of Asian voters as undecided.

It's almost as if some people just put some numbers in a spreadsheet as I just did and kept recalculating until it gave them a desirably low Biden number and then just made up Trump's

[morgieb]

At least Trafalgar get results that are at least semi-plausible. This is Overtime Politics-tier.

[Pericles]

For context, this pollster had Trump at +2 in early August.  It's pretty clear that they're cooking the books for Trump to skew polling averages, just like Trafalgar.  Pathetic that conservatives feel like they have to resort to these measures.

So the RNC bounce was only 1 point? Pathetic, terrible sign for Trump.

[BlueSwan]

Between these fraudsters and Trafalgar's "social desirability bias" "corrections", we sure are getting more than our share of BS polls this cycle. Unfortunately, coupled with the couple of legit polls showing a bit of a tightening, this will allow the media to run with the "race is tightening", "we have a horserace" agenda. I guess the positive spin on that is that democrats won't be complacent, but they probably already weren't due to 2016.

[Sestak]

Into the Traf it goes!

[n1240]

This "poll" was just retweeted by the President of the United States of America.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

For context, this pollster had Trump at +2 in early August.  It's pretty clear that they're cooking the books for Trump to skew polling averages, just like Trafalgar.  Pathetic that conservatives feel like they have to resort to these measures.

You are perhaps being too kind. Cooking the books requires some effort.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm going to post the details here, but I don't trust a word of it after the ban by 538.

Changes with July 29-31 "figures":

Democracy Institute/Sunday Express
August 26-28, 2020

National sample:
1500 likely voters
MoE: 2.5%

Trump 48% (n/c)
Biden 45% (-1%)
Undecided 7% (+1%)

Florida Sample
500 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Trump 47% (n/c)
Biden 44% (-1%)
Undecided 8% (+1%)

Minnesota Sample
450 likely voters
MoE: 5%

Trump 48% (+2%)
Biden 45% (n/c)
Undecided 7% (-2%)

New Hampshire Sample
400 likely voters
MoE: 5%

Trump 47% (+1%)
Biden 43% (n/c)
Undecided 10% (-1%)

Battleground States subsample (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin)
Sample not given

Trump 49% (+1%)
Biden 42% (-1%)
Undecided 10% (+1%)

[afleitch]

So no change then.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

They're a fake pollster - I'm pretty sure someone emailed 538 about it and they hinted it being fake and the race crosstabs are more or less impossible given the topline.



Somehow Biden is at 45% among white voters despite also having a topline result of 45%

If you're going to fake a poll, at least get the math right. This is just ridiculous.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At least Biden is taking heed and going out and campaigning, this election is turning out to be 2016, where pollsters keep polling the 260 red wall but ignoring the 278 blue wall.

Pelosi bill on the stimulus is backfiring, unemployment is dropping to 7.5 percent, unemployed workers dont need 600 in unemployment benefits

[WD]

For context, this pollster had Trump at +2 in early August.  It's pretty clear that they're cooking the books for Trump to skew polling averages, just like Trafalgar.  Pathetic that conservatives feel like they have to resort to these measures.

You are perhaps being too kind. Cooking the books requires some effort.

So is this poll basically trash then?

[BigSerg]

For context, this pollster had Trump at +2 in early August.  It's pretty clear that they're cooking the books for Trump to skew polling averages, just like Trafalgar.  Pathetic that conservatives feel like they have to resort to these measures.

You are perhaps being too kind. Cooking the books requires some effort.

So is this poll basically trash then?

Trump wins
Democrats: Trash Poll!!!!!

[WD]

For context, this pollster had Trump at +2 in early August.  It's pretty clear that they're cooking the books for Trump to skew polling averages, just like Trafalgar.  Pathetic that conservatives feel like they have to resort to these measures.

You are perhaps being too kind. Cooking the books requires some effort.

So is this poll basically trash then?

Trump wins
Democrats: Trash Poll!!!!!

If you think Trump is winning by 3 while Biden is getting a higher share of the White vote than Bill Clinton in either of his runs or Obama in 2008, then I have waterfront property in Nebraska to sell you.