Challenge and Choice, an Obama TL

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The most Republican thing to do would be to pick Bachmann anyway.

[NewYorkExpress]

The most Republican thing to do would be to pick Bachmann anyway.

This is the 2012 Republican Party, not the 2016/2020 Republican Party.

She really isn't responsible for the bombing in Mecca, but Obama chucked her into Guantanamo to save her from the Saudi Arabian Government, who likely would have had her killed (like they would do to Jamal Kashoggi IRL).

[NewYorkExpress]

With Michelle Bachmann out of the race, the Primary took on a very different tenor. Condoleeza Rice suddenly surged in the polls in both Arizona and Michigan with Bachmann out, while Ron Paul moved into the lead in the in Wyoming. All three states voted on February 28.

In Wyoming, Michelle Bachmann had held a small but steady lead over Ron Paul for months. However, with Bachmann out (and now in Guantanamo Bay), Paul moved into a healthy lead, and neither Rice nor Bush seriously contested the state.

Wyoming Caucuses

Ron Paul 44% (Wins all 25 delegates)
Jeb Bush 26%
Condoleeza Rice 21%

In Michigan, Rice and Bush were already battling for the lead, and Bachmann's exit made an already volatile primary even more exciting. Bush had the endorsement of former Senator Spencer Abraham, as well as most of the Congressional delegation, while Rice picked up the endorsements of Governor John Cox and former Governor John Engler. Ron Paul was a non-factor here.

Michigan Primary

Condoleeza Rice 45% (Wins all 30 delegates)
Jeb Bush 39%
Ron Paul 9%

The Arizona Primaries were considered the more interesting event of the evening, as Condoleeza Rice and Michelle Bachmann had been battling for a win here. However, with Bachmann's exit, Jeb Bush made a late play for the state. However, Bush was hamstrung, when at a rally in Noagles, he suggested that North America needed something like Europe's Schengen Area, crippling his support, and causing sharp drops in his numbers in New Mexico, California and Texas as well.

Arizona Primary

Condoleeza Rice 41% (Wins all 29 delegates)
Jeb Bush 30%
Ron Paul 17%

Current Delegate Count

Jeb Bush 149 delegates

Condoleeza Rice 84 delegates

Ron Paul 50 delegates

Jeb Bush going 0-3 would keep the race alive beyond Super Tuesday, and quite possibly all the way to the Acela Primaries on April 24.

Head-to-Head General Election Matchups

Barack Obama (D) 50%
Ron Paul (R) 31%

Barack Obama (D) 47%
Jeb Bush (R) 45%

Condoleeza Rice (R) 46%
Barack Obama (D) 45%

[NewYorkExpress]

The week-long sprint to Super Tuesday was expected to be a make-or-break situation for Jeb Bush, especially as Condoleeza Rice's poll numbers rose dramatically following the forced exit of Michelle Bachmann, and Rice's wins in Arizona and Michigan. Super Tuesday, taking place on March 6, featured ten states holding primaries and caucuses, ranging from Alaska to Washington.

In Washington, state Republicans, who traditionally had held a Primary and then a Caucus, elected to hold just the Primary in 2012. Both Jeb Bush and Condolezza Rice seriously campaigned here, as had Michelle Bachmann, before her forced exit from the race. Neither Bush nor Rice were really considered strong fits for Washington Republicans, but Bush had establishment support, and held the lead throughout.

Washington Primary

Jeb Bush 44% (Wins all 43 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 34%
Ron Paul 17%

In Alaska, Ron Paul was the only candidate attempting to win the state. Sarah Palin, the governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee, had endorsed Michelle Bachmann, and following Bachmann's banishment to Guantanamo Bay, had decided to remain neutral.

Alaska Caucuses

Ron Paul 49% (Wins all 24 delegates)
Jeb Bush 25%
Condoleeza Rice 20%

In North Dakota, Ron Paul was the only candidate contesting the caucuses. Despite John Hoeven and Jack Dalrymple's support of Jeb Bush, Paul won the caucuses, easily.

North Dakota Caucuses

Ron Paul 50% (Wins all 28 delegates)
Jeb Bush 23%
Condoleeza Rice 23%

In Idaho, Ron Paul was again the only candidate contesting the caucuses. With no real opposition here, Paul earned another easy victory, and another significant source of delegates as he attempted to make himself the Not-Bush.

Idaho Caucuses

Ron Paul 44% (Wins all 32 delegates)
Jeb Bush 31%
Condoleeza Rice 19%

In Vermont, Jeb Bush and Condoleeza Rice dueled for the lead. Bush had the endorsement of Brian Dubie, while Rice picked up the endorsement of Jim Jeffords. Neither candidate made an in-person appearance here, spending most of their time in Georgia, Ohio or Virginia. Ron Paul was not much of a factor here.

Vermont Primary

Jeb Bush 44% (Wins all 17 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 40%
Ron Paul 12%

Michelle Bachmann had been leading in Oklahoma by a huge margin before her exile, however with her exit the dynamic was upended. Jeb Bush made a serious play to try and win the state, and armed with endorsements from J.C Watts, Mary Fallin and the entire Republican Congressional Delegation (Jim Inhofe stayed neutral), easily won the Sooner State's primary.

Oklahoma Primary

Jeb Bush 55% (Wins all 27 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 27%
Ron Paul 12%

Michelle Bachmann had also been leading in Tennessee by a significant margin, with Condoleeza Rice and Jeb Bush battling for second. However, with Bachmann out, Bush and Rice began a turf war in the Volunteer State. On February 3, Rice surrogate Zach Wamp accused Bush and Paul voters of being "racist and sexist" at a rally at the University of Tennessee, which Bush (and Michelle Obama) criticized harshly, and Rice disavowed Wamp.

Tennessee Primary

Jeb Bush 47% (Wins all 43 delegates)
Condolezza Rice 43%
Ron Paul 8%

In Massachusetts, Jeb Bush was the only candidate contesting the state, and he had the endorsements of both Scott Brown and Mitt Romney, leading to an easy win.

Massachusetts Primary

Jeb Bush 59% (Wins all 38 delegates)
Condolezza Rice 25%
Ron Paul 10%

The remaining three states were the three biggest delegate prizes, and each featured battles between Condoleeza Rice and Jeb Bush. Bush won in Georgia after a recount, while Rice won in both Ohio and Virginia, winning the latter by a surprisingly large margin.

Virginia Primary

Condoleeza Rice 48% (Wins all 46 delegates)
Jeb Bush 39%
Ron Paul 10%

Ohio Primary

Condoleeza Rice 45% (Wins all 63 delegates)
Jeb Bush 43%
Ron Paul 7%

Georgia Primary

Jeb Bush 45.875% (Wins all 76 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 45.035%
Ron Paul 7.1%

Current Delegate Count

Jeb Bush 355 Delegates

Condoleeza Rice 193 Delegates

Ron Paul 134 Delegates

[NewYorkExpress]

On March 10, Kansas, and all five territories held their primaries and caucuses. Ron Paul was expected to win in Kansas, while Jeb Bush was expected to sweep the territories.

Ron Paul was the only candidate seriously contesting Kansas, especially after Michelle Bachmann's exit, and spent most of his time campaigning here, trying to score an unopposed victory, and rack up delegates. His strategy worked, as Jeb Bush and Condoleeza Rice chose to focus on the upcoming primaries in Alabama, Mississippi and Illinois instead.

Kansas Caucuses

Ron Paul 51% (Wins all 40 delegates)
Jeb Bush 28%
Condoleeza Rice 20%

None of the candidates were competing in any of the territories, as Ron Paul did not think he could win, and Jeb Bush and Condoleeza Rice chose to focus on Alabama, Mississippi and Illinois instead.

Guam Caucuses

Jeb Bush 43% (Wins all 9 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 36%
Ron Paul 16%

Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses

Jeb Bush 44% (Wins all 6 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 39%
Ron Paul 14%

U.S Virgin Islands Caucuses

Jeb Bush 39% (Wins all 8 delegates)
Ron Paul 35%
Condoleeza Rice 25%

American Samoa Caucus

Jeb Bush 75% (Wins all 9 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 18%
Ron Paul 6%

Puerto Rico Primary

Jeb Bush 64% (Wins all 20 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 20%
Ron Paul 12%

Current Delegate Count

Jeb Bush 399 Delegates
Condoleeza Rice 193 Delegates
Ron Paul 174 Delegates

Head to Head General Election Matchups

Barack Obama (D) 50%
Ron Paul (R) 39%

Barack Obama (D)
Jeb Bush (R) 45%

Barack Obama (D) 46%
Condoleeza Rice (R) 46%

[NewYorkExpress]

Senate polling (as of Super Tuesday)

Arizona

John Kyl (R) 49%
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 45%

California (Dianne Feinstein retiring)

Kamala Harris 59%
Generic R 18%

Kamala Harris 49%
Generic D 44%

Connecticut (Joe Lieberman retiring)

Ned Lamont (D) 47%
Chris Shays (R) 43%

Florida

Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) 44%
Bill Nelson (D) 43%

Indiana (Richard Lugar retiring)

Richard Mourdock (R) 48%
Pete Buttigeig (D) 45%

Maine

Olympia Snowe (R) 42%
Angus King (I) 37%
Troy Dale Jackson (D) 16%

Massachusetts

Elizabeth Warren (D) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 48%

Michigan

Debbie Stabenow (D) 49%
Rick Snyder (R) 44%

Minnesota

Amy Klobuchar (D) 50%
Michelle Fischbach (R) 42%

Missouri

Mike Parson (R) 45%
Claire McCaskill (D) 45%

Montana

Jon Tester (D) 47%
Denny Rehberg (R) 46%

Montana-Special

Steve Bullock (D) 45%
Greg Gianforte (R) 42%

Nebraska

Dave Heineman (R) 54%
Ben Nelson (D) 37%

Nevada

Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 49%
Adam Laxalt (R) 41%

New Jersey

Cory Booker (D) 48%
Jon Brammick (R) 44%

North Dakota

Rick Berg (R) 53%
Kent Conrad (D) 39%

Ohio

Rob Portman (R) 47%
Sherrod Brown (D) 47%

Pennsylvania

Bob Casey Jr. (D) 49%
David Brightbill (R) 40%

Texas (Dick Armey retiring)

Ted Cruz (R) 44%
Joaquin Castro (D) 43%

Virginia (Jim Webb retiring)

Tim Kaine (D) 47%
Bob McDonnell (R) 45%

Wisconsin (Herb Kohl retiring)

Tammy Baldwin (D) 49%
Ron Johnson (R) 40%

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

How is everyone's favorite moron Michelle Bachmann doing at Guantanamo? Are the Saudis satisfied with that decision?

[NewYorkExpress]

How is everyone's favorite moron Michelle Bachmann doing at Guantanamo? Are the Saudis satisfied with that decision?

Bachmann's not really sure why she's in Guantanamo. As for the Saudi's, they aren't happy about it, but they value their relationship with the United States more.

[NewYorkExpress]

On March 13, Alabama, Hawaii, and Mississippi held their primary elections. All three states were expected to be contested by two out of three candidates.

In Alabama and Mississippi, the battle was between Jeb Bush and Condoleeza Rice. Both candidates spent significant time here after Super Tuesday. A major controversy erupted when Bush surrogate Cindy Hyde-Smith used a racial slur to refer to Rice and President Obama at a fundraiser in Jackson on March 4. Both Rice and Obama called on Hyde-Smith to resign her position as Lieutenant Governor of Mississippi, but she refused. Rice also demanded that Jeb Bush, whom Hyde-Smith had endorsed, end his campaign, but she was rebuffed.

Mississippi Primary

Jeb Bush 44% (Wins all 37 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 40%
Ron Paul 10%

Alabama Primary

Condoleeza Rice 43% (Wins all 47 delegates)
Jeb Bush 42%
Ron Paul 11%

In Hawaii, the battle was between Jeb Bush and Ron Paul. Jeb Bush had the support of the establishment, such as Linda Lingle, while Paul had the support of the local grassroots. In this case, the grassroots won.

Hawaii Caucuses

Ron Paul 49% (Wins all 17 delegates)
Jeb Bush 35%
Condoleeza Rice 13%

Current Delegate Count

Jeb Bush 436 Delegates
Condoleeza Rice 240 Delegates
Ron Paul 191 Delegates

[NewYorkExpress]

For many watching American politics, the general election began in earnest at the beginning of March, as both the Green and Libertarian Parties held their conventions.

The Green Party held their convention in Brownsville, Texas, and nominated 2008 Vice Presidential candidate and former San Francisco Supervisor Matt Gonzalez (who had returned to the Green Party in 2011) for President, and Physician and Activist Jill Stein for Vice President.

The Libertarians held their convention in Green Bay, Wisconsin, and nominated Ophthalmologist and 2010 Senate candidate Rand Paul for President, and former Representative and 2008 nominee for President Bob Barr for Vice President.

On March 4, Russia held Presidential Elections. Dimitry Medvedev had indeed chosen to run for another term, and faced some opposition in his quest for his second term as President of Russia. While Medvedev was favored, outside observers noted he wasn't as popular as Vladimir Putin was, and it was theoretically possible that he might lose.

Russian Presidential Elections

Dimitry Medvedev-United Russia 42%

Alexei Navalny- Yabloko 38%

Mikhail Prokhrov- Right Cause 11%

Gennady Zuyganov- Communist Party 5%

Sergey Mironov- A Just Russia 2%

Vladimir Zhirnovsky- Liberal Democratic Party 2%

There were significant protests in the streets of Moscow over Medvedev's victory, with three people dying, and 300, being arrested, but inspectors from the European Union and from the United States stated that the election was "Free and Fair".

[NewYorkExpress]

In addition to the Presidential elections in Russia, several other events happened on the international stage that had dramatic far-reaching impacts across the globe.

In a special session of the Chinese National People's Congress, a proposed measure from the Politburo, which would formally end the "One Country, Two Systems" form of Government held by both Hong Kong and Macau, was passed on March 2. President of the Communist Party Hu Jintao sacked the governments of both Hong Kong and Macau, and, according to the terms of the legislation, could now appoint new Communist Party Secretary's for both provinces. In Macau, he appointed the former Mayor of Guangzhou, Zhang Guangning, and both the legislation and Guangning's appointment passed with little protest. In Hong Kong, violent protests, happened, and the People's Liberation Army had to be called in, with 9,086 people dying. Among the casualties, were nine members of the American Embassy staff, including the Deputy Chief of Mission (Ambassador Max Baucus survived by locking himself in a restroom, but he was arrested by the Army, held in isolation for three days, and expelled from China). Former Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan was sent to Hong Kong with orders for a wide crackdown and pacification, and another 40,567 people were either killed or arrested in the coming weeks. The United States, the United Kingdom, Portugal, Australia, and Germany all severed diplomatic ties with the Chinese Government, and some in Congress, most notably Tom Cotton called for a nuclear strike on a major Chinese city, suggesting Beijing and Shanghai as possible targets. Both Secretary of Defense Hugh Shelton and Secretary of State Joseph Prueher excoriated Cotton in the press, and President Obama stated that a nuclear war "will not happen my watch". However, he authorized the placement of offensive nuclear weapons in South Korea and Taiwan, both pointed at Beijing.

On March 6, the Supreme Court in Arizona vs. United States, that Arizona's SB 1070, which had been passed in 2009 over Janet Napolitano's veto, and effectively required Arizona Police officers and the Arizona National Guard to shoot anyone crossing the border from Mexico on sight, legally or otherwise, whether or not that person was a United Citizen, by an 8-1 margin (everyone except Alito was in the Majority). Clarence Thomas's majority opinion, that shooting people crossing the border without regard for whether they were citizens was wanton murder was praised by the left, while Samuel Alito's dissent stating that only illegal immigrants would cross the Mexican Border was slammed as factually false, by those on the left, Hispanic Advocacy groups, and even some Republicans. Following the ruling, Representatives Nydia Velazquez, Joaquin Castro, and Raul Grijalva introduced articles of impeachment against Alito. The Articles were brought to the floor of the House on March 17, and failed there 179-223.

PPP Survey on the Supreme Court's ruling in Arizona v. United States (in field from March 15-March 20)

Opinion of SB 1070

Approve 39%
Disapprove 50%

Opinion of Clarence Thomas

Approve 50%
Disapprove 42%

Opinion of Samuel Alito

Approve 35%
Disapprove 52%

Opinion of Nydia Velazquez


Approve 21%
Disapprove 29%

Opinion of Joaquin Castro

Approve 30%
Disapprove 29%

Opinion of Raul Grijalva

Approve 19%
Disapprove 21%

[NewYorkExpress]

On March 20, Illinois Republicans went to the polls. Republican leaders, desperate to avoid a brokered convention, had started to urge one of Jeb Bush or Condoleeza Rice to drop out in favor of the other. Rice, knew that if she lost Illinois, her chances of winning the nomination would likely vanish, as the next states that had significant delegates and were favorable to her were Maryland and New York, and her polling lead had vanished in Maryland, and her numbers were dropping in New York, as the influential New York Conservative Party came out strongly against her. Both candidates visited the state the state numerous times, from the South Carolina Primaries on. However, despite Rice's arguments that she was more electable than Bush, and her support among African-American voters, Bush won all other segments of the Republican Party on his way to victory.

Illinois Primary

Jeb Bush 48% (Wins all 54 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 35%
Ron Paul 13%

Following the Illinois Primary, both Condoleeza Rice and Ron Paul suspended their campaigns for President, making Jeb Bush the presumptive Republican nominee. Rice endorsed Bush on April 1, at a rally at the University of Alabama, and in the meantime, took her name out contention for Vice President, while Paul declined to endorse Bush. While he released his delegates, he instead chose to endorse the Libertarian ticket, headed by his son Rand.

Over the next month, Bush put together his longlist of candidates for the Vice Presidential spot on the ticket, with the goal of having a nominee by July Fourth. They were:

Former Governor Linda Lingle
Representative Paul Ryan
Representative Eric Cantor
Governor Mitch Daniels
Senator Jon Huntsman
Governor Chris Christie
Governor Tim Pawlenty
Governor John Kasich
Governor Sam Brownback
Former Governor Mike Huckabee
Associate Justice Clarence Thomas

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Bush/Thomas 2012!

[NewYorkExpress]

Bush/Thomas 2012!

Clarence Thomas is in the longlist because he's a prominent Conservative African-American who can draw a sharp contrast with Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket. However, Thomas would have to resign to accept the nomination, meaning Obama would get to fill another Supreme Court seat, though it's unclear if the Senate would take it up.

Remember, Biden also isn't running for reelection on the Democratic ticket. I'll probably have a post with Obama's choice up later in the day, if not tomorrow (it will likely be either Hillary Clinton or Kathleen Sebelius, I haven't decided between the two yet.).

As for Jeb, Thomas would probably be the most high-risk/high-reward, while Jeb's map expansion strategy, which he needs, while also locking down the conservative base, probably requires a pick of Pawlenty, Kasich or Huckabee. Those three, plus Thomas, will likely make up the final four on Jeb's shortlist.

[Fanofeverything25]

bush/cantor or bush/lingle!

[NewYorkExpress]

April 10, The White House

President Obama had always had one person in mind if he needed to replace Joe Biden on the ticket for any reason, and it was really just a matter of convincing her. However, much like being Secretary of State almost four years ago, Hillary Clinton was not interested in being Vice President, instead preferring to run for reelection. Obama wanted to put a woman on the ticket, and after securing a commitment from his second choice, scheduled an announcement for the next day in Topeka.

April 11, Topeka, Kansas

Barack Obama

Almost four years ago I stood before you as the embodiment of change. Today, it's time for the evolution of that change, as we prepare to elect the first female Vice President in American History. That person, Kansas, is your Senator, Kathleen Sebelius. Senator Sebelius has been a reliable partner in the Senate, as well as Governor here in Kansas, and she will be a reliable ally for change as Vice President well. I give you, the next Vice President of the United States, Kathleen Sebelius!

Kathleen Sebelius

Four years ago Hillary Clinton put eighteen million cracks in the highest glass ceiling ever. Four Years ago, Sarah Palin became the first Vice Presidential nominee of the Republican Party. Twenty-Eight years ago, Geraldine Ferraro became the first woman to join a Presidential Ticket of any kind. I am honored to be following in each of their footsteps today. I want to thank President Obama for selecting me, and I promise, I won't let him down.

Battleground State polls

Florida

Jeb Bush 49%
Obama/Sebelius 46%

Ohio

Jeb Bush 48%
Obama Sebelius 48%

Pennsylvania

Obama/Sebelius 47%
Jeb Bush 45%

Michigan

Obama/Sebelius 49%
Jeb Bush 45%

North Carolina

Obama/Sebelius 46%
Jeb Bush 44%

Georgia

Jeb Bush 47%
Obama Sebelius 45%

Kansas

Jeb Bush 51%
Obama/Sebelius 43%

Colorado

Obama/Sebelius 50%
Jeb Bush 44%

Wisconsin

Obama/Sebelius 49%
Jeb Bush 44%

Iowa

Jeb Bush 45%
Obama/Sebelius 45%

Texas

Jeb Bush 49%
Obama/Sebelius 43%

New Mexico

Obama/Sebelius 49%
Jeb Bush 40%

Arizona

Jeb Bush 47%
Obama/Sebeilus 41%

New Hampshire

Obama/Sebelius 50%
Jeb Bush 40%

Virginia

Obama/Sebelius 45%
Jeb Bush 42%

[NewYorkExpress]

bush/cantor or bush/lingle!

With Obama having picked Sebelius, Bush is at least giving some consideration to Linda Lingle, but he's wary of a repeat of Sarah Palin.

Currently the members of his list getting the most consideration are Clarence Thomas, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty, and John Kasich.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think Jeb will (like 2016 OTL) have issues getting past the whole 'Bush' last name. Only this time it is four years in the past instead of 8.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Jeb will (like 2016 OTL) have issues getting past the whole 'Bush' last name. Only this time it is four years in the past instead of 8.

He will. However, he's successfully defined himself as very different from his brother throughout the primary, and during the run up to the primary. It is however, what the Obama attack machine will focus on.

In many ways, Bush's VP selection is critical for him.

[NewYorkExpress]

While the Presidential election was ongoing, and Jeb Bush dithered in his selection of a running mate, other events were happening, throughout the end of March and beginning of April, some of which had an impact on the Presidential race.

On March 15, Der Speigel came out with a bombshell report that alleged that Bill Clinton and German Minister of Labour and Social Affairs Ursula von der Leyen had been having an affair since August of 2009, which included secret rendezvouses in three different countries, Secret Service members having been siphoned off of Hillary Clinton's protective detail to guard von der Leyen, without either Hillary, President Obama or Chancellor Angela Merkel's knowledge, and multiple incidences of Bill Clinton attempting to meddle in German domestic policy, according to leaked German diplomatic cables. While von der Leyen got off more or less scot-free (her husband, Heiko, filed for divorce in April, but she didn't lose her Government job, and largely escaped criticism in the press), Bill Clinton was pilloried. On March 29, his marriage more or less ended, as Hillary Clinton filed for divorce, telling a reporter at the Washington Post that "enough was enough". Justice Minister Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger announced that Bill Clinton would be banned from entering Germany in the future on March 27, and three days later, she announced that ban would apply to Hillary as well "even if she is elected President someday". On April 5, Clinton was indicted in the Southern District of New York for violating the Logan Act. In September, following a bench trial before Judge Kimba Wood, Clinton was convicted and sentenced to two years in prison. His attorneys, led by Jose Baez filed an appeal, based on the constitutionality of the Logan Act, and they expected the case to reach the Supreme Court in the next term or two.

Meanwhile, the Republican Senate nominee in Indiana,Treasurer Richard Mourdock, caused a firestorm when he went on a local news program on April 6 and claimed that "a woman's body has ways of shutting down pregnancies by rape". Mourdock had only been leading his opponent, 2010 Treasurer nominee Pete Buttigeig by three points, and following the comments, Buttigeig opened up a double-digit lead in the polls.

New York-Senate- Siena (Poll in the field from April 10 to April 16)

Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Dean Skelos (R) 32%

Indiana-Senate- PPP (Poll in the field from April 8 to April 13)

Pete Buttigeig (D) 49%
Richard Mourdock (R) 37%

[NewYorkExpress]

On March 7, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn was arrested in Edinburgh on charges of raping a tour guide at the National Museum of Scotland, where he had been giving a lecture the previous day. Strauss-Kahn had been France's nominee to replace Jean Claude-Trichet at the European Central Bank, which had been deadlocked in debate due to opposition from Germany, Italy and Austria, each of whom backed Mario Draghi instead. The first fallout was that Strauss-Kahn removed himself from consideration as the nominee to become director of the European Central Bank on March 17, and on March 27, following his arraignment hearing, at which he was denied bail, he resigned as Director of the International Monetary Fund. On April 29, after several weeks in which John Lipsky served as acting Managing Director, he retired, pending the naming of a permanent successor. On May 6, The International Monetary Fund Board named Former Australian Minister for Finance Lindsay Tanner as the new Managing Director, after their first choice, Christine Lagarde instead chose to run for President of France.

The First Round of the French Presidential Elections would be held on April 22. Nicolas Sarkozy, had seen his popularity decline throughout his first term in office, largely due to a poor reaction to the financial crisis (at the time of the election, the unemployment rate in France was 11.2%, the highest in Western Europe, and trailing only Greece and Italy in all of Europe), and he ultimately chose not to run for reelection. Sarkozy's decision not to run, likely helped his party-UMP's chances of retaining the Presidency, as though they trailed in polling, it was significantly closer with anyone other Sarkozy as their nominee, than it was otherwise. In the event of no candidate receiving a majority in the first round, a runoff between the top two would be held on May 6.

French Presidential Election-First Round

UMP Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry, Christine Lagarde 31%
Socialists President of the Reigional Council of Poitou-Charentes, Segolene Royal 16%
National Front MEP, Marine Le Pen 15%
Left Front MEP Jon-Luc Melenchon 14%
Democratic Movement MP Francios Bayrou 13%
The Greens MEP Eva Joly 7%
Arise The Republic Yerres Mayor, MP Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 4%

The second round saw Lagarde and Royal try to appeal to the supporters of the defeated candidates. However, Lagarde was able to do this more effectively, and her economic background was considered more valuable during the ongoing crisis.

French Presidential Election-Second Round

Christine Lagarde 55%
Segolene Royal 45%

With Lagarde's victory, she became the first woman to be elected President of France.

[NewYorkExpress]

While the end of 2011 had been quiet on the legislative front, Congress swung back into action as 2012 began.

The first piece of legislation, co-sponsored by Ilhan Omar, Beto O'Rourke, and Henry Waxman required colleges operating in the United States, to pay student-athletes at least double the state or federal minimum wage, whichever was higher per game played or sporting event the University in question participated in on January 18. The legislation passed the House on February 15, 293-108. After surviving a filibuster attempt from Pat Toomey and Richard Shelby, passing a cloture vote, 68-29 on March 19, the legislation passed the Senate on March 25, 71-25.

The NCAA filed suit to block the measure, and on June 7, Federal Judge William T. Lawrence ruled that the law was unconstitutional. On November 9, the U.S Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals upheld Lawrence's ruling. The Supreme Court agreed to take the case a week later, and on February 5, 2013, in NCAA v. Duncan, overturned the Seventh Circuit's ruling by a 7-2 majority (Scalia and Roberts were the lone dissenters).

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, a coup, orchestrated by Hezbollah deposed President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Najib Mikati on April 2. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was named President for-life, the office of Prime Minister was abolished, as was Lebanon's Parliament, and opposition lawmakers in Lebanon were expelled from the country. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak authorized the invasion and occupation of all of Lebanon on April April 19. Among the goals were the capture and execution of Nasrallah, and the occupation of all of Lebanon. The Lebanese Army was quickly overrun, and was defeated in the battle of Tripoli, with 45,067 casualties, to 6,786 for the Israeli Army. Nasrallah was captured and executed by the Israeli's on June 8 in an apartment in Beirut. Prime Minster Barak appointed General Gadi Shammi as Military Governor of Lebanon. There was strong support among many in Israel for genocide against the Muslim population in Lebanon, but Prime Minister Barak and the Israeli Military resisted this, with one unnamed general stating that "if we did this, we would be no better than the Nazis."

[NewYorkExpress]

June 1, Orlando, Florida

Jeb Bush's running mate search had been moving quickly. He was down to the final three names on his longlist, Clarence Thomas, Tim Pawlenty, and John Kasich. Jeb's polling showed a complicated situation. On the one hand, he needed to make gains in the Midwest (he thought his own presence on the ticket locked down Florida), while on the other, he needed to make inroads with both women and African-Americans. In truth, his best choice for these purposes was Condoleeza Rice, but she had refused to be vetted, and in any event she was pro-choice, a non-starter with the Republican base.

Clarence Thomas had surprised the Bush campaign back around the Illinois Primary, when they were first assembling their list of possible running mates, with his willingness to be vetted for Vice President. He candidly admitted to Bush that he was getting bored on the Supreme Court at a face-to-face meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina, and stated that he had no problem with the possibility of President Obama potentially choosing his replacement as "that's his right under the Constitution". Asked about Anita Hill, Thomas said that if the allegations against him weren't disqualifying enough to keep him off the Supreme Court, they shouldn't keep him out of the Vice Presidency. He did indicate that he was willing, to assuage the Bush campaign's fears over the issue, to take a pledge that he would not run for President in his own right if eligible, but Bush told him it wouldn't be necessary.

Both Tim Pawlenty and John Kasich were considered better choices by Republican insiders, and senior officials in the Bush campaign. Bush was not seriously contesting Minnesota at that point, but he thought that the Minnesota Governor's presence on the ticket would be enough to flip the state. Kasich was considered an even stronger candidate, as he was popular in Ohio, and was considered likely to deliver Ohio to Bush, giving him a needed electoral vote cushion.

At Bush's headquarters in Orlando, Bush's campaign staff, led by Steve Schmidt and Karl Rove, made arguments for Kasich (Rove) and Pawlenty (Schmidt), while the campaign's third in-command, and the campaign manager in-waiting for the Vice Presidential nominee, Kellyanne Conway argued in favor of Thomas. Ultimately Bush decided not pick Thomas, deciding it wasn't worth opening up a Supreme Court seat and reopening the Anita Hill can of worms, and instead chose to fly to Saint Paul to announce his choice as running mate the next day.

Jeb Bush

It's my honor to announce that your Governor, Minnesota, will be the next Vice President of the United States. I give you Tim Pawlenty!

Tim Pawlenty

Thank you, for that warm welcome. It's an honor to be joining a national ticket, and I look forward to making President Obama a one-term President, and putting a Bush back in the White House!



Battleground State polls

Florida

Bush/Pawlenty (R) 50%
Obama/Sebelius (D) 45%

Ohio

Bush/Pawlenty (R) 47%
Obama/Sebelius (D) 45%

Pennsylvania

Obama/Sebelius (D) 47%
Bush/Pawlenty (R) 46%

North Carolina

Obama/Sebelius (D) 44%
Bush/Pawlenty (R) 43%

Georgia

Bush/Pawlenty (R) 45%
Obama/Sebelius (D) 44%

Kansas

Bush/Pawlenty (R) 48%
Obama/Sebelius (D) 43%

Minnesota

Obama/Sebelius (D) 47%
Bush/Pawlenty (R) 47%

Colorado

Obama/Sebelius (D) 52%
Bush Pawlenty (R) 44%

Wisconsin

Bush/Pawlenty (R) 47%
Obama/Sebelius 45%

Iowa

Bush/Pawlenty (R) 48%
Obama/Sebelius (D) 46%

Texas

Bush/Pawlenty (R) 47%
Obama/Sebelius (D) 44%

Arizona

Bush/Pawlenty (R) 45%
Obama/Sebelius (D) 44%

New Mexico

Obama/Sebelius (D) 53%
Bush/Pawlenty (R) 42%

New Hampshire

Obama/Sebelius (D) 51%
Bush/Pawlenty (R) 43%

Virginia

Obama/Sebelius (D) 46%
Bush/Pawlenty (R) 45%

[NewYorkExpress]

The Republican National Convention, which was scheduled to be held from July 7-July 9 at the Alamodome in San Antonio, met with chaos from the get go when an armed mob attacked the press and RNC officials, demanding that Michelle Bachmann's delegates be seated, with some of the more brazen demanding that Bachmann be installed as the nominee. After Megyn Kelly, covering the covention for Fox News was beaten in street by the mob, along with two Jeb Bush delegates from Florida that she was attempting to interview, RNC Chairman Michael Steele, in consultation made the unprecedented decision at midnight on July 6, to cancel the convention, and nominate Jeb Bush unanimously. Following the fiasco, the race went from being a tossup, to a double digit Obama lead in the polls, and both Bush and Pawlenty told Wolf Blitzer that they were considering suspending their campaigns with Bush stating that "after that fiasco, I'm not sure the Republican Party deserves to continue to exist."

Obama for his part, aware of the likelihood of a similar riot occuring at the Democratic National Convention, which was to be held in Chicago from July 23-25 (most of the convention would be at the United Center, with Obama and Sebelius speaking from Soldier Field on the 25th), announced from the White House on July 7, that the DNC would be preemptively canceled, citing security concerns.

On July 15, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo sued in Federal Court to have the Republican Party declared a terrorist organization, and was joined by Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley and United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Preet Bharara (who was not acting with the approval of anyone in the Justice Department). The case was brought on an expedited basis before Federal Judge George Daniels, who ruled on in a searing opinion on August 18, that while there were terrorist elements in the Republican Party, the Republican Party is not a terrorist organization by any reasonable standard. Daniels recommended that the relevant bar associations bring disciplinary charges against Cuomo, Coakley and Bharara for wasting the court's time with a frivolous lawsuit.

[NewYorkExpress]

Following continuing security threats from disgruntled supporters of Michelle Bachmann (who were being arrested by the day now), the Presidential debates were canceled after the Obama and Bush campaigns agreed not to attend. Bush by this point was barely campaigning at all, and had even indicated off the record to the Wall Street Journal that if he won, he and Pawlenty would both resign to allow the Speaker of the House (which he assumed would still be Pelosi), to assume the Presidency, a statement which offended Pawlenty when it was leaked.

Obama also wasn't doing much campaigning, leaving his campaign's minimal efforts to Sebelius,and to a lesser extent Biden, who was looking forward to leaving office, and had a book that would be released shortly after he left office, detailing both his 2008 campaign and his time as Vice President, titled My Word as A Biden.

Polls consistently showed Obama up double digits as Election Day dawned, and with a commanding lead in electoral votes. However, the margins had tightened somewhat in the battle for the House and Senate, and the various Governor's mansions up had never received much polling.

Indiana

President

Barack Obama/Kathleen Sebelius (D) 48%
Jeb Bush/Tim Pawlenty (R) 44%
Rand Paul/Bob Barr (L) 4%
Matt Gonzalez/Jill Stein (G) 3.2%

Governor (Mitch Daniels term-limited)

Chris Chocola (R) 48%
Joe Donnelly (D) 45%
Rupert Boneham (L) 7%

Senate (Richard Lugar retiring)

Pete Buttigeig (D) 53%
Richard Mourdock (R) 43%
Andrew Horning (L) 4%

D+1

First Congressional District

Pete Visclosky (D) 74%
Joel Phelps (R) 26%

Second Congressional District

Brendan Mullen (D) 47%
Jackie Walorski (R) 45%
Joe Ruiz (L) 8%
D+1

Third Congressional District

Marlin Stutzman (D) 59%
Justin Kunhle (R) 41%


Fourth Congressional District

Todd Rokita (R) 55%
Lester Terry Moore (D) 39%
Benjamin Gelhausen (L) 6%

Fifth Congressional District (Dan Burton retiring)

Scott Reske (D) 47%'
Susan Brooks (R) 46%
Chard Reid (L) 7%
D+2

Sixth Congressional District

Mike Pence (R) 60%
Bradley Bookout (D) 34%
Rex Bell (L) 6%

Seventh Congressional District

Andre Carson (D) 58%
Greg Ballard (R) 42%

Eighth Congressional District

Dave Crooks (D) 49%
Larry Buschon (R) 45%
Bart Gadau (L) 6%

D+3

Ninth Congressional District (Mike Sodrel running for Lieutenant Governor)

Todd Young (R) 50.067%
Shelli Yoder (D) 49.933%

Kentucky

President

Jeb Bush/Tim Pawlenty (R) 51%
Barack Obama/Kathleen Sebelius (D) 39%
Rand Paul/Bob Barr (L) 9%
Matt Gonzalez/Jill Stein (G) 1%

First Congressional District

Ed Whitfield (R) 64%
James Buckmaster (D) 36%

Second Congressional District

Brett Guthrie (R) 56%
Jim Glenn (D) 41%
Craig Astor (L) 2%
Andrew Beacham (I) 1%

Third Congressional District

John Yarmuth (D) 57%
Kelly Downard (R) 41%
Robert DeVore Jr. (I) 2%

Fourth Congressional District (Geoff Davis retiring)

Thomas Massie (R) 60%
Greg Frank (D) 39%
David Lewis (I) 1%

Fifth Congressional District (Hal Rogers retiring)

Thomas Turner (R) 77%
Kenneth Stepp (D) 23%

Sixth Congressional District

Jim Newberry (D) 50.6%
Andy Barr (R) 48.9%
Randolph Vance (I) 0.5%
D+4

New Hampshire


President

Barack Obama/Kathleen Sebelius (D) 55%
Jeb Bush/Tim Pawlenty (R) 39%
Rand Paul/Bob Barr (L) 4%
Matt Gonzalez/Jill Stein (G) 2%

Governor

John Lynch (D) 61%
Ted Gatsas (R) 36%
John Babiarz (L) 3%

First Congressional District

Carol Shea-Porter (D) 56%
Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43%
Brendan Kelly (L) 1%

Second Congressional District

Maggie Hassan (D) 55%
Kelly Ayotte (R) 43%
Hardy Marcia (L) 2%
D+5

Vermont

President

Barack Obama/Kathleen Sebelius (D) 77%
Jeb Bush/Tim Pawlenty (R) 19%
Matt Gonzalez/Jill Stein (G) 3%
Rand Paul/Bob Barr (L) 1%

Governor (Brian Dubie running for Senate)

Tim Ashe (D) 51%
Phil Scott (R) 42%
Emily Peyton (I) 3%
Dave Eagle (Liberty Union) 3%
Cris Ericson (Marijuana) 1%
D+1

Senate

Bernie Sanders (I/D) 64%
Brian Dubie (R) 32%
Peter Diamondstone (Liberty Union) 3%
Peter Moss (Peace and Prosperity) 1%

At-Large Congressional District

Peter Welch (D) 74%
Mark Donka (R) 23%
Jane Newton (Liberty Union) 3%