Challenge and Choice, an Obama TL
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #100 on: February 27, 2021, 05:46:47 PM »

On July 27, following days of speculation over the vacant Senate seat in Montana (thanks to Max Baucus's confirmation as Ambassador to China), Governor Brian Schweitzer announced that he would appoint Attorney General Steve Bullock as Baucus's replacement in the Senate. Bullock would face the voters in a special election in 2012.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Robert Menendez was indicted on by a federal grand jury over taking bribes from Opthamologist Saloman Melgen to advance his business interests. Menendez was found guilty of bribery and perjury on November 12, and was sentenced by Federal Judge William Walls to two years in prison. Menendez resigned from the Senate that day. On November 16, Governor Chris Christie appointed State Assemblyman Jon Bramnick to the vacant Senate seat, giving Republicans a Senate gain.

Following a poor result in the Ames Straw Poll, Newt Gingrich suspended his campaign for President on September 2, endorsing Jeb Bush.


I don't see why Menendez would resign.

IRL, Menendez was acquitted. Here, he was found guilty. Now, assuming a case similar to McDonnell v. United States eventually reaches the Supreme Court, it's very possible that Menendez's conviction could be overturned on appeal (of the current justices, all but Loretta Lynch have expressed support, either in a legal opinion, or in a public forum for looking at the Federal Bribery statutes, while the position of the soon to be sworn in Justice, Denny Chin, is on the issue is currently unknown.).
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« Reply #101 on: February 27, 2021, 06:23:27 PM »

I know. I'm just saying it is entirely possible he doesn't resign in the first place, as convicted Senators don't have to resign (Ted Kennedy is an example of this, when what he did was worse). The Dem majority (knowing Chris Christie) would block any votes for expulsion.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #102 on: February 27, 2021, 06:32:58 PM »

I know. I'm just saying it is entirely possible he doesn't resign in the first place, as convicted Senators don't have to resign (Ted Kennedy is an example of this, when what he did was worse). The Dem majority (knowing Chris Christie) would block any votes for expulsion.

True, but Democrats, barring a really bad nominee should win the seat back in 2012.
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« Reply #103 on: February 27, 2021, 06:42:13 PM »

I know. I'm just saying it is entirely possible he doesn't resign in the first place, as convicted Senators don't have to resign (Ted Kennedy is an example of this, when what he did was worse). The Dem majority (knowing Chris Christie) would block any votes for expulsion.

True, but Democrats, barring a really bad nominee should win the seat back in 2012.

And they know a thing or two about that...
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #104 on: February 28, 2021, 12:29:13 PM »

On August 2, voters went to the polls to select the nominees for the next Governor of Mississippi. The incumbent, Haley Barbour was term-limited and running for President. Both parties had serious candidates running. Democrats did not expect to be seriously competitive here (compared to Kentucky, where they had an incumbent running), but they had multiple candidates who were polling surprisingly well heading into the primary. In either primary, if no candidate reached a majority of the vote, they would head to a runoff three weeks later.

Mississippi Governor-Democratic Primary

Former Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy 52%
Hatttiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree 44%
Former Tax Assessor Guy Dale Shaw 4%

Mississippi Governor-Republican Primary

Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant 36%
Pearl River County Supervisor Hudson Holliday 15%
Former Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck 14%
Contractor Dave Dennis 11%
State Representative Charles Beckett 10%
Small Business Owner, Minister, James Broadwater 8%
CEO of the International Sibling Society Cindy Burleson 6%

Mississippi Governor-Republican Primary-Runoff

Phil Bryant 61%
Hudson Holliday 39%

Polling outlook for the off year elections (as of September 1, 2011)

Kentucky-PPP

Rand Paul (R) 42%
Steve Beshear 40%
Gatewood Galbraith (I) 9%
Undecided/Other 9%

Mississippi-Rasmussen

Phil Bryant (R) 48%
Mike Espy (D) 43%
Undecided/Other 9%

Louisiana/PPP

Bobby Jindal (R) 48%
Generic Democrat 46%
Undecided/Other 6%


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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #105 on: February 28, 2021, 08:33:37 PM »
« Edited: February 28, 2021, 08:44:14 PM by NewYorkExpress »

On September 10, the Supreme Court once again became a front and center issue as Justice Anthony Kennedy announced that he would retire the following June. This gave President Obama the opportunity to appoint a fifth Supreme Court Justice, and despite early speculation that Obama would appoint either Kamala Harris or Amy Klobuchar, he chose to instead nominate the U.S Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Preet Bharara. Unlike his former colleague, Loretta Lynch, Bharara's nomination drew fire from both sides of the aisle for  his methods in prosecuting cases, and he struggled to make it out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, with Harry Reid (with Mitch McConnell's tacit approval), agreeing to skip committee hearings, and give Bharara a straight up-or-down vote in the Senate. After a brief fillibuster attempt by Jeff Sessions, which was broken 80-9, Bharara's nomination was defeated in the Senate 46-49, as he became the first Supreme Court nominee to be defeated in the Senate since Robert Bork, on October 12. Undaunted, President Obama tried again, this time nominating former Deputy Attorney General James Comey on October 27. Comey was considered a controversial pick on the left, given his ties to the Bush Administration, however Republicans had little opposition to him, as he would not alter the balance of ideology on the court (which was 6-3 in favor of the liberal wing, with Garland, Kennedy and Roberts serving as swing votes). Comey easily cleared the Judiciary Committee, and was confirmed by the Senate on December 4, 89-3 (Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and John Kerry were the three votes against Comey.)

State of the Republican Presidential race(as of September 31, 2011)

Iowa

Michelle Bachmann 23%
Mitch Daniels 15%
Jeb Bush 13%
George Allen 10%
Bill Frist 8%
Haley Barbour 7%
Condolezza Rice 7%
Christine Todd Whitman 3%
Ron Paul 2%

New Hampshire

Jeb Bush 18%
Ron Paul 16%
Mitch Daniels 15%
Condolezza Rice 9%
Michelle Bachmann 7%
George Allen 6%
Bill Frist 6%
Christine Todd Whitman 5%
Haley Barbour 3%

Nevada

Jeb Bush 20%
Mitch Daniels 17%
Condolezza Rice 15%
Ron Paul 10%
George Allen 6%
Bill Frist 6%
Christine Todd Whitman 3%
Haley Barbour 3%
Michelle Bachmann 3%

South Carolina

Jeb Bush 17%
Condolezza Rice 16%
Mitch Daniels 16%
Michelle Bachmann 13%
George Allen 8%
Bill Frist 7%
Haley Barbour 6%
Ron Paul 2%
Christine Todd Whitman 0%

Florida

Jeb Bush 55%
Condolezza Rice 17%
Mitch Daniels 9%
George Allen 7%
Bill Frist 6%
Haley Barbour 5%
Michelle Bachmann 4%
Christine Todd Whitman 2%
Ron Paul 1%


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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #106 on: March 02, 2021, 02:47:06 PM »

On October 1, the sixth Republican Presidential debate was held at Harrah's Council Bluffs, in Council Bluffs, Iowa. The debate was aired on PBS, and was moderated by Judy Woodruff and Gwen Ifill. Bill Frist and George Allen refused to attend the debate, citing it being held in a casino, while Christine Todd Whitman and Ron Paul were not invited due to poor polling in Iowa.

The first question, from Ifill, was about Michigan Republican Party Chairwoman Betsy Devos's statements that, in light of President Obama being able to make five Supreme Court appointments (Preet Bharara's nomination had been announced, but had yet to be voted on at the time of the debate), that Republicans needed to "pack the courts as soon we have all three branches of government". Bachmann said that Republicans needed to go further and impeach the justices in the liberal wing as well, while Rice and Daniels each said that an arms race over the Supreme Court helped no one. Bush and Barbour largely ducked the question.

The second question, from Woodruff, asked if the candidates supported an initiative announced by Secretary of Defense Zinni to allow women in combat roles. Bachmann said yes, as she believed a woman could do a military job as well as a man, Rice said yes, depending on the situation, while Bush said, yes, though he suggested all-female combat units instead of mixed-gender units. Barbour said no, while Daniels declined to answer the question.

The third question, from Woodruff, asked if they would support legalization of sports betting on the federal level (legislation to that effect was pending in the Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Illinois and California legislatures). All except Rice said no.

The fourth question, from Ifill asked if they would support a Constitutional Amendment to recall Federal Officeholders. All except Rice said yes, while Rice said, that while more states should pass the recall, she did not think an amendment allowing for recalls of Representatives, Senators or the President would receive the required majorities in Congress.

The Fifth Question, from Ifill, asked if the candidates supported ethanol subsides. Bachmann said no, stating that oil and coal should be the only fuels Americans use. Everyone else said yes.

Over the Summer, Football (Soccer) had several showpiece international events.

In the CONCACAF Gold Cup, Jamaica defeated the United States in the final 2-0, behind two goals by Dane Phillips.

In the Copa America, Argentina defeated Brazil 1-0 in extra time, behind a goal with nine seconds left before the game went to a penalty shootout by Lionel Messi.

In the Women's World Cup, Japan defeated The United States 4-1, a dramatic national triumph following the earthquake and nuclear meltdown in Fukushima.


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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #107 on: March 02, 2021, 07:11:26 PM »

On September 19, Jared Lee Loughner shot and killed thirty-seven people at a fundraiser for Senator Gabrielle Giffords in Douglas. The rampage was only stopped when Giffords grabbed the gun of a dead member of her security team and shot and killed Loughner, saving her own life and the lives of nineteen others. After a short time away from Washington to destress, Giffords  returned to the Senate, and introduced a Constitutional Amendment that would repeal the Second Amendment in it's entirety, on October 9. The Amendment failed in the Senate, 21-77. Undaunted, Giffords stated that she would introduce it every year until it passed, stating in an interview with Wolf Blitzer that "my experience taught me that the Second Amendment must go."

PPP poll on Gun Rights (in the field from September 31-October 2)

Should the Second Amendment be repealed?

Yes 50%
No 44%

Opinion of the National Rifle Association

Approve 34%
Disapprove 49%

Opinion of Gabrielle Giffords

Approve 42%
Disapprove 44%
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« Reply #108 on: March 03, 2021, 09:20:59 AM »

On September 19, Jared Lee Loughner shot and killed thirty-seven people at a fundraiser for Senator Gabrielle Giffords in Douglas. The rampage was only stopped when Giffords grabbed the gun of a dead member of her security team and shot and killed Loughner, saving her own life and the lives of nineteen others. After a short time away from Washington to destress, Giffords  returned to the Senate, and introduced a Constitutional Amendment that would repeal the Second Amendment in it's entirety, on October 9. The Amendment failed in the Senate, 21-77. Undaunted, Giffords stated that she would introduce it every year until it passed, stating in an interview with Wolf Blitzer that "my experience taught me that the Second Amendment must go."

PPP poll on Gun Rights (in the field from September 31-October 2)

Should the Second Amendment be repealed?

Yes 50%
No 44%

Opinion of the National Rifle Association

Approve 34%
Disapprove 49%

Opinion of Gabrielle Giffords

Approve 42%
Disapprove 44%


It sounds like Gifford could have been the most popular politician after the shooting, but then squandered it immediately afterwards
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #109 on: March 03, 2021, 01:21:17 PM »

On September 19, Jared Lee Loughner shot and killed thirty-seven people at a fundraiser for Senator Gabrielle Giffords in Douglas. The rampage was only stopped when Giffords grabbed the gun of a dead member of her security team and shot and killed Loughner, saving her own life and the lives of nineteen others. After a short time away from Washington to destress, Giffords  returned to the Senate, and introduced a Constitutional Amendment that would repeal the Second Amendment in it's entirety, on October 9. The Amendment failed in the Senate, 21-77. Undaunted, Giffords stated that she would introduce it every year until it passed, stating in an interview with Wolf Blitzer that "my experience taught me that the Second Amendment must go."

PPP poll on Gun Rights (in the field from September 31-October 2)

Should the Second Amendment be repealed?

Yes 50%
No 44%

Opinion of the National Rifle Association

Approve 34%
Disapprove 49%

Opinion of Gabrielle Giffords

Approve 42%
Disapprove 44%


It sounds like Gifford could have been the most popular politician after the shooting, but then squandered it immediately afterwards

That's pretty much what attempting to repeal the Second Amendment will get you.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #110 on: March 03, 2021, 03:59:23 PM »

Over the summer of 2011, as America's attention focused on the slowly building Presidential race, several different events happened in international politics, that had dramatic repercussions.

The Sinaloa Cartel assassinated Mexican President Felipe Calderon, Interior Secretary Jose Francisco Blake Mora, Attorney General Marisela Morales, Secretary of the Navy Mariano Saynez and Secretary of Defense Gullimero Galvan Galvan in a coordinated assault involving one hundred armed gunmenn, and two car bombs on September 16.

At the request of Mexico's Ambassador to the United States, Arturo Sarukhan, President Obama asked Congress for permission to send 250,000 troops into Mexico to crush the cartels and reestablish a working government in Mexico. The resolution allowing Obama to send troops to Mexico passed the House 300-119 on September 29, and passed the Senate 58-22 on October 12.

Congress had, when drafting the Authorization, put in a restriction on how long the troops could stay in Mexico. Under the Authorization of force passed, the troops could only stay until the general elections there, which would be held at the beginning of July, 2012. If President Obama wanted them stay beyond that, he would have to go back to Congress for another Authorization of Force.
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« Reply #111 on: March 03, 2021, 06:45:49 PM »

Did the Bin-Laden raid happen? I forget.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #112 on: March 03, 2021, 06:49:32 PM »

Did the Bin-Laden raid happen? I forget.

Yes. The Bin Laden raid happened in March of 2009 and was successful. A couple of years later, the Administration found out via the British Newspapers, that the Pakistani Government of the time had been aware of Bin Laden's presence in Afghanistan, and had attempted to cover it up, leading to an operation to bring the former government officials responsible to the United States to face trial, which also was successful.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #113 on: March 04, 2021, 07:54:54 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2021, 08:17:55 PM by NewYorkExpress »

It only took until Halloween for the American troops in Mexico to have success in combating the cartels. In a joint raid with the remaining elements of the Mexican Army, the American forces, led by Lieutenant General Frank Helmick, successfully killed or captured the entire leadership structure of every Mexican Cartel, as well as 80% of the footsoliders of the cartels, essentially leaving them leaderless, at the cost of just 17 dead American soldiers, and 56 wounded American soldiers. Helmick and Obama received significant blowback when Mexican soldiers under his command proceeded to kill all of the captured prisoners, scuttling plans to bring them to the United States for trial. Still, the troops (or at least the survivors) were able to come home by Christmas, and while Obama wasn't able to rebuild the Mexican Government, he had ensured that there would be a safe and secure Mexico ahead of the 2012 elections there.

Meanwhile, the off year elections in 2011, were taking place, and Democrats were expecting modest losses. The three Gubernatorial elections in Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi would dominate the attention.

Kentucky-Governor

Rand Paul (R) 47%
Steve Beshear (D) 45%
Gatewood Galbraith (I) 8%

R+1

Mississippi-Governor (Haley Barbour term-limited, running for President)

Phil Bryant (R) 52%
Mike Espy (D) 48%


Louisiana-Governor

Bobby Jindal (R) 24%
Caroline Fayard (D) 22%
Cleo Fields (D) 21%
Troy Carter (D) 18%
Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 9%
David Duke (R) 6%

Republicans could celebrate picking up the Governor's mansion in Kentucky (though many were very unhappy about just who had won that race, as Rand Paul was not popular within the Kentucky Republican Party), while Democrats could celebrate getting as close as they did in Mississippi, and forcing the race in Louisiana to a runoff, while lamenting the reality, that if they'd united around one candidate, they wouldn't be going to a runoff to begin with.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #114 on: March 06, 2021, 08:38:35 PM »

Following the success in Mexico, Secretary of Defense Anthony Zinni decided it was time for him to retire, announcing he would do so by New Year's Day. President Obama nominated the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hugh Shelton, on December 2. Shelton was confirmed by the full Senate 66-27, on January 7, 2012.

On November 9, Christine Todd Whitman, citing poor polling, suspended her campaign for President, and endorsed Condoleeza Rice at a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire.

On December 7, the Supreme Court ruled in a 5-4 decision, that Obamacare was considered constitutional. (Lynch,Garland,Sotomayor, Chin and Roberts were the majority).Merrick Garland's majority opinion that the individual mandate was neither a tax or a penalty was widely panned on both the left and the right, while Samuel Alito's fiery dissent drew rave reviews on the right wing of the Republican Party.

Meanwhile, in the Sporting World, the New York Yankees defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in five games to win the World Series.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #115 on: March 09, 2021, 07:41:03 PM »

The Louisiana Gubernatorial runoff between Bobby Jindal and Caroline Fayard was marked by an energetic campaign from Fayard, and struggles for the unpopular Jindal (who had been considered a possible 2012 Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate. He'd never really denied the speculation, and the speculation was hurting his standing at home). However, the Republican base, which largely sat out the first round came home to support Jindal in the runoff, and Republican Presidential candidates Haley Barbour, Bill Frist and Jeb Bush came to Louisiana to campaign for Jindal, providing the difference in the runoff.

Lousiana-Governor-Runoff

Bobby Jindal (R) 52%
Caroline Fayard (D) 48%

Republican Primary polling (as of Thanksgiving, 2011)

Iowa

Michelle Bachmann 22%
Mitch Daniels 16%
Jeb Bush 13%
Bill Frist 11%
Haley Barbour 8%
George Allen 8%
Condolezza Rice 7%
Ron Paul 4%

New Hampshire

Ron Paul 17%
Mitch Daniels 17%
Jeb Bush 17%
Condolezza Rice 15%
George Allen 7%
Bill Frist 6%
Haley Barbour 6%
Michelle Bachmann 5%

Nevada

Ron Paul 13%
Jeb Bush 13%
Condolezza Rice 13%
Mitch Daniels 12%
Michelle Bachmann 7%
George Allen 6%
Bill Frist 5%
Haley Barbour 5%

South Carolina

Michelle Bachmann 22%
Jeb Bush 19%
Condolezza Rice 18%
Mitch Daniels 10%
George Allen 7%
Bill Frist 7%
Haley Barbour 5%
Ron Paul 2%

Florida

Jeb Bush 55%
Mitch Daniels 11%
Michelle Bachmann 7%
Condolezza Rice 6%
George Allen 6%
Haley Barbour 5%
Bill Frist 3%
Ron Paul 1%

Head to Heads vs Obama

Condolezza Rice 49%
Barack Obama 48%

Mitch Daniels 48%
Barack Obama 48%

Barack Obama 50%
Jeb Bush 45%

Barack Obama 49%
George Allen 43%

Barack Obama 50%
Haley Barbour 42%

Barack Obama 48%
Bill Frist 44%

Barack Obama 55%
Ron Paul 37%

Barack Obama 52%
Michelle Bachmann 39%
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #116 on: March 18, 2021, 08:42:29 PM »

The final push towards the Iowa Caucuses was marked by the cancellation of the final debate before the caucuses, which would have been held at University of Iowa on December 17, after the RNC failed to find a moderator or network partner to air the debate.

The campaign was also marked in the home stretch by a rally a Michelle Bachmann rally in Ames, which accused Condolezza Rice of being a lesbian, and Jeb Bush and Mitch Daniels of being "traitors to the Republican Party". At another rally the next day, in Waterloo, Bachmann, called for Democratic leaders in Congress, as well as President Obama and Vice President Biden, to be tried for treason, stating without evidence that they "coddled terrorists", conveniently ignoring that Obama had authorized an operation to bring Osama Bin Laden to justice in 2009.

While Fox News largely defended Bachmann, most of the Republican field (with exception of Ron Paul, who stayed out of the discussion), and pretty much every Democratic elected official called for Bachmann to drop out of the race. Hillary Clinton stated that Bachmann should be arrested and charged with inciting violence, however Attorney General Jerry Brown stated that absent a violent act by Bachmann or Bachmann supporters, there were no criminal charges that could be filed.

January 3,2012, Iowa Caucuses-28 Delegates

Michelle Bachmann 22% (wins all 28 delegates)
Mitch Daniels 19%
Jeb Bush 19%
Condolezza Rice 14%
George Allen 11%
Haley Barbour 7%
Bill Frist 7%
Ron Paul 1%

Following the caucuses, Bill Frist and Haley Barbour both suspended their campaigns. Barbour endorsed Mitch Daniels, while Frist endorsed Jeb Bush.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #117 on: March 18, 2021, 09:05:37 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2021, 09:20:42 PM by NewYorkExpress »

While the Presidential race in the United States was heating up there were also two international elections that dominated the headlines.

The first was in Spain, where ever since the recession began, the economy had been cratering, forcing the call for a snap election, and the announcement by Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero that he would retire. Making matters worse for Zapatero and his PSOE party, was the diplomatic row with the United States, over comments back in January by Michelle Obama that were supportive of Catalan Independence, which had caused Spain to begin the process of leaving NATO, a position, which had only lukewarm popularity amongst the Spanish electorate. On the plus side for the PSOE, the Basque separatist group ETA announced a permanent cessation of armed activity just weeks before the election, but by that point POSE's chances of putting together a government had already fallen apart.

Spain-Congress of Deputies

PPMariano Rajoy- 200 seats
PSOEAlfredo Perez Rubalcaba 105 seats
CiU Josep Antoni Duran i Lledia 14 seats
IU-LV Cayo Lara 14 seats
UPyD Rosa Diez 9 seats
AmaiurIñaki Antigüedad 8 seats

The other was the Parliamentary elections in Russia.

With speculation swirling over whether Vladimir Putin would again run for President in 2012 (which Putin and President Dimitry Medvedev denied, Putin even telling the BBC's Huw Edwards, that his plan was for Medvedev to run again in 2012, and then to run for President again himself in 2018, when Medvedev was term-limited. Medvedev, for his part, said he was undecided about running for President again, but said that he did not wish to become Prime Minister if he didn't run for reelection, instead stating that he wished to return to Gazprom if he chose not to run, in an interview with Der Speigal)

Due to the uncertainty surrounding Putin's future, his United Russia party lost a significant number of seats in the Duma.

Russia, Duma Elections

United Russia Vladimir Putin- 227 seats
A Just RussiaSergey Mironov- 76 seats
Communist PartyGennady Zyuganov 69 seats
LDPRVladimir Zhrinovski 65 seats
Patriots of RussiaGennady Semgin 13 seats
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #118 on: March 18, 2021, 10:23:19 PM »

Republicans were again forced to cancel a primary debate, to be held between the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primaries, after Michelle Bachmann refused to attend. Bachmann proceeded to put out a press statement stating that she was "done debating liberal Republicans", and even refused to commit to debate President Obama if she won the nomination, which spooked several prominent Republicans. With Bachmann's numbers steadily climbing in many states beyond New Hampshire (she had taken the lead in South Carolina, and held leads in several key states later in the process) prominent Republicans began uniting around the two Republicans deemed most likely to stop her, Jeb Bush and Mitch Daniels.

Former Senator and 1996 Presidential nominee Bob Dole issued a joint endorsement of Bush and Daniels at a campaign stop in Charleston, South Carolina. Former Senator and 2008 Presidential nominee John McCain endorsed Daniels at a campaign stop in Manchester,New Hampshire. Former Vice President Dan Quayle endorsed Bush at a campaign rally in Phoenix. Former New York City Mayor, and 2008 candidate for President Rudy Giuliani endorsed Bush and Daniels at a campaign rally in Times Square, and Senator and 2008 candidate for President Mitt Romney endorsed Daniels at a campaign rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. In addition, Daniels won his second major Newspaper endorsement, adding the New Hampshire Union Leader to his prior endorsement from the The Des Moines Register before the Iowa Caucuses.

Unlike Iowa, where Bachmann had jumped out to a huge lead, the race had been called early, and her lead had steadily shrank throughout the night, New Hampshire was tight all the way through. Every candidate except George Allen held the lead at some point during the night, and the final call wasn't made by any network, until CNN made the call at 2:26 in the afternoon, on January 13, 2012.

New Hampshire Primary-January 10, 2012(12 delegates at stake)

Mitch Daniels 18.675% (wins all twelve delegates)
Jeb Bush 18.568%
Ron Paul 18.118%
Condolezza Rice 18.045%
Michelle Bachmann 16.895%
George Allen 7.211%

Even before the primary was called,George Allen suspended his campaign and endorsed Mitch Daniels.
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« Reply #119 on: March 19, 2021, 11:43:23 PM »

The closest GOP primary race in New Hampshire since 1996. The establishment support seems to be split between Bush and Daniels. In order to have a real chance of winning the nomination, Bush will likely need a win in South Carolina. Otherwise, there is, of course his home state of Florida then.
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« Reply #120 on: April 25, 2021, 12:39:45 AM »
« Edited: April 25, 2021, 08:56:11 PM by NewYorkExpress »

With just five candidates remaining, the race for the Republican nomination moved out west to Nevada. The Silver state wasn't seriously contested by anyone other than Ron Paul in the early going, and in the final days before the caucus, both Jeb Bush and Mitch Daniels, desperate for victories charged in, looking for a chance to steal the caucuses. However, Daniels had a problem. Most of his moderate support was now going to Bush, as was many establishment endorsements, seeing Bush as the more electable of the two establishment candidates. Meanwhile, other endorsements he needed, like Olympia Snowe, Shelly Moore Capito and Susan Collins had chosen to endorse Condoleeza Rice instead, leaving Daniels few major endorsements. By this point, it was a matter of when he would drop out of the race, and who he would endorse.

Nevada Caucuses- January 17

Ron Paul 24% (wins all 28 delegates)
Michelle Bachmann 21%
Condoleeza Rice 17%
Jeb Bush 15%
Mitch Daniels 12%

Less than a week after the Nevada Caucuses were the South Carolina Primaries. This was a state that traditionally was a king-maker in Republican politics. While normally, Jeb Bush would be nervous, having, not won a state yet, he still held a sizable lead in Florida, and had been carpetbombing Michelle Bachmann through the airwaves, both here and in Florida. Bachmann, for her part, had gone all out to win the Palmetto State, however, she got into very ugly territory when, at a rally in Greer on January 14, she called for repealing the Thirteenth Amendment. The NAACP called for Bachmann to drop out of the race, and Don Lemon, guest hosting on Anderson Cooper 360, suggested that "The Federal Government should look at whether Whites should be eligible to vote at all". CNN responded by firing Lemon two days later, and pulling all press coverage from the Bachmann campaign.

On Primary Night, Bush, Bachmann and Condolezza Rice battled for the lead for hours. Bush and Bachmann's attacks on each other, allowed Rice, who easily won African-American voters, and split moderates with Bush and Daniels, and conservatives with Bachmann, to narrowly win the primary, after a recount which lasted until January 25.

South Carolina Primary-January 21

Condolezza Rice 27.46% (wins all twenty-five delegates)

Jeb Bush 27.23%

Michelle Bachmann 26.99%

Mitch Daniels 14%

Ron Paul 2.55%

Following yet another defeat, Mitch Daniels suspended his campaign, and endorsed Jeb Bush.


Jeb Bush was widely favored heading into the Florida Primaries, but he was the only candidate remaining, that still hadn't won a primary, and that was starting to wear on him. Neither Michelle Bachmann nor Ron Paul had the resources to compete in Florida (and Bachmann was spending her time in Missouri and Colorado), meaning Bush's main rival was Condoleeza Rice. It wasn't much of a fight either. Bush consistently led by over twenty points in the polls, and despite his defeats, actually expanded his lead in the first weeks of 2012.

Florida Primary-January 21

Jeb Bush 59% (Wins all 50 delegates)

Condoleeza Rice 19%

Michelle Bachmann 14%

Ron Paul 5%

With the next primaries not being until the beginning of February, there was a short breather for everyone to catch their breath.


Current Delegate Count

Jeb Bush 50+12 from Mitch Daniels endorsement

Ron Paul 36

Condoleeza Rice 25

Michelle Bachmann 7
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« Reply #121 on: April 25, 2021, 01:28:49 AM »

Outside of American Presidential Politics, there were quite a few major stories in the first month of 2009.

The first big story of the month, was an Israeli airstrike at a recently nuclear plant rumored to be assembling components for nuclear weapons, seventeen miles east of Tabuk. Israeli Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz, confirmed there had been "credible" intelligence, provided by Mossad, the CIA, and MI6, that the Saudi's were building nuclear weapons. Prime Minister Ehud Barak, speaking while on working trip and meeting with United States Secretary of State Leon Panetta, and U.N Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, stated that "no enemy of Israel will acquire weapons of mass destruction".

Meanwhile, Croatia held a referendum on accession to the European Union on January 22. While a yes vote was generally favored to win, no one was really sure by how much. However, a mysterious ad campaign attacking the EU surfaced in Croatia, driving support for accession down, dramatically. Turnout was relatively weak, at only 34% of eligible voters.

Croatian European Union Accession Referendum

No 50.35%
Yes 48.79%

After the defeat of the referendum, Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic blamed Russia for the defeat of the referendum, claiming that "Russia has never given up on uniting the Slavs under their banner" at a rally in Zagreb.

Meanwhile, in non-political news, one of the biggest upsets in sporting history occurred, when Red Star Belgrade won their UEFA Champions League Group, a group that consisted of Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Chelsea, didn't lose a game, and only drew once.

Meanwhile, a major scandal occurred during the qualifying tournament for the Australian Open, in Melbourne, when Sergei Bubka won a match, then promptly collapsed of heatstroke, dying thirty minutes later. The main Grand Slam tournament was canceled, and many on the ATP and WTA tour agreed with the joint suggestion of Caroline Wozniacki and Rafael Nadal, that Australian Open be removed from the calendar, with Nadal stating that "something else will become the fourth Grand Slam tournament in time."
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« Reply #122 on: April 25, 2021, 02:43:30 AM »
« Edited: April 25, 2021, 03:46:38 PM by NewYorkExpress »

The Presidential race was upended by the news on January 30, that Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, better known as Vice President Beau Biden's son, had been diagnosed with terminal brain cancer and had been given less than three years to live. On February 1, Joe Biden announced, that due to his desire to spend his son's final years together, he would not run for a second term as Vice President, though he committed to serving out the remainder of his current term. Biden also preemptively ruled out running for President in 2016, in the same speech.

Now needing a running mate, President Obama and his campaign team, led by David Axelrod, Jim Messina and Howard Wolfson, began developing a shortlist of possible candidates to replace Biden on the ticket, with goal of having an announced running mate by Memorial Day.

The candidates that made the longtlist were:

1. Senator Hillary Clinton
2. Senator Bill Nelson
3. Former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine
4. Senator Kathleen Sebelius
5. Senator Evan Bayh
6. Former Senator Tom Daschle
7. Senator Tom Vilsack
8. California Governor Gavin Newsom
9. Senator Gabrielle Giffords
10. Senator Debbie Stabenow


2012 General Election polling (as of the Florida Primary)

Barack Obama (D) 49%
Michelle Bachmann (R) 28%

Barack Obama (D) 48%
Ron Paul (R) 34%

Barack Obama 45%
Jeb Bush (R) 43%

Barack Obama (D) 46%
Condoleeza Rice (R) 46%
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« Reply #123 on: April 25, 2021, 03:42:07 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2021, 08:57:27 PM by NewYorkExpress »

The next group of Primaries and caucuses took place on February 7, 2012. While they briefly were overshadowed by Beau Biden's cancer diagnosis, and the news that Vice President Biden would not be running for reelection, they quickly reestablished themselves in the mind's eye.

The Maine Caucuses were targeted by Ron Paul as a source of delegates. None of the other candidates seriously challenged him here (though Jeb Bush was airing ads here, and Newt Gingrich did visit the state before he suspended his campaign). Paul ultimately easily won the caucuses.

Maine Caucuses

Ron Paul 33% (Wins all 22 delegates)
Jeb Bush 25%
Condoleeza Rice 20%
Michelle Bachmann 17%


In Colorado, Jeb Bush and Condoleeza Rice were largely doing battle via the airwaves, as no candidate made many visits to the Centennial State. Bush had taken a narrow lead in polling from Mitch Daniels here, around the same time as the Iowa Caucuses, and held the endorsement of most prominent in state Republicans (though some, like Tom Tancredo, chose to endorse Bachmann instead). The result went back and forth between Bush and Rice for most of the night, with the race being called for Bush at noon February 8.

Colorado Primaries

Jeb Bush 29% (Wins all 19 delegates)
Condoleeza Rice 27%
Michelle Bachmann 19%
Ron Paul 16%

In Missouri, Bachmann, Bush and Rice dueled for a juicy delegate prize. Rice and Bush had divided establishment support here, with Roy Blunt and John Ashcroft (who had briefly run for President himself) endorsing Bush, while Kit Bond and Sarah Steelman endorsed Rice. The highest profile endorsement for Bachmann in Missouri, was former Governor Matt Blunt. This was a close primary, and wasn't called until shortly after midnight, when Jeb Bush emerged victorious.

Missouri Primary

Jeb Bush 30% (Wins all 49 delegates)
Michelle Bachmann 29%
Condoleeza Rice 28%
Ron Paul 9%

No one really doubted that Michelle Bachmann would win Minnesota, but Jeb Bush decided to challenge her here, reasoning that if Bachmann lost in her home state, she'd be knocked out of the race. Bachmann did make one major misstep, as on February 2, at a fundraiser in Duluth, she called Beau Biden's cancer diagnosis "Karma". Once again, outraged Democrats called on her to leave the race, and Vice President Biden stated on Meet The Press that Sunday, that the only reason he wasn't challenging Bachmann to a duel was because he didn't want a murder charge hanging over his head. In the end, it didn't matter, as Bachmann won Minnesota easily.

Minnesota Caucuses

Michelle Bachmann 50% (Wins all 34 delegates)
Jeb Bush 26%
Ron Paul 15%
Condoleeza Rice 8%

Current Delegate Count

Jeb Bush 149 Delegates

Ron Paul 2 delegates

Michelle Bachmann 41 delegates

Condoleeza Rice 25 delegates
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« Reply #124 on: April 25, 2021, 04:54:30 PM »

With the next group of primaries being at the end of February, once again, the candidates had some time to catch their breath.

However, that didn't mean things weren't going on elsewhere in the world.

After a delay of a month, due to a series of scheduling conflicts at the Rose Bowl (including a Lady Gaga concert, a audience with Pope Benedict XVI, and the NFC Championship Game (which had been moved from Dallas because of the forecast of an ice storm in the Dallas Fort-Worth Metro-Area on game day), the 2012 BCS National Championship Game finally was played on January 29, 2012, with the Alabama Crimson Tide defeating the Oregon Ducks 24-7.

On February 5, in Super Bowl XVLI, over nine hundred million television viewers, a record number, saw the New England Patriots defeat the Green Bay Packers 20-17, to become the first team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to finish an NFL season undefeated. The Super Bowl Halftime show, featuring Prince, with support from Diana Ross, was considered an instant classic, with the New York Times's A.O Scott calling it "the best Super Bowl Halftime show I've ever seen."

Meanwhile, in more sober news, a car bomb killed forty people in Mecca, and despite early fears that sectarian violence might be responsible, an American Right-Wing militia released a web tape claiming responsibility. The group, headed by a faceless individual named "Q" released a manifesto that called for the death of all those that were not White evangelical Christians, and explicitly endorsed Michelle Bachmann for President, stating that she will "bring White Christian America back to it's former glory".

In response, Saudi Arabia, as well as Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, asked for an Interpol red notice for Bachmann, and called on the United States to "arrest her immediately". Attorney General Merrick Garland agreed, and drafted an arrest warrant for the Presidential candidate for material support of terrorism, and incitement, and had it filed in the Southern District of New York.

Bachmann was arrested on February 10, and two days later, after a discussion with the cabinet and Congressional leaders of both parties (who were in agreement, that she was an enemy combatant and should be sent to Guantanamo Bay), Obama authorized the transfer of Michelle Bachmann to Guantanamo Bay.

On February 14, the RNC had an emergency meeting about what to do with Bachmann's delegates. Ultimately it was decided to not seat Bachmann's delegates. All campaign staff who worked on Bachmann's campaign, and pollsters who were employed by Bachmann would be blacklisted by the Republicans going forward (and it would be enforced).
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