CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

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Feels like this thread is on life support until the recall verification (+ "Here we go" & "It's on" posts).

And even after that, I feel this is gonna be a very uneventful recall unless COVID recovery goes down the toilet in the next 2 months.

B-b-b-but what's going to happen to all the cons who blew their loads fantasizing about Gavin Mussolini being recalled for personally going around strangling small business owners with reusable plastic bags?

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Images of the latest update.

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Former CA Senate Majority Leader Gloria Romero (D) endorses Elder.

"Yes, I'm a Democrat. But the recall of Newsom is not about political party. It’s about Newsom. Larry Elder for governor."

https://drive.google.com/file/d/14lGYWA-HVg1pNhLLnEoxAWCHdUMwc4Bf/view

The recall is as much about political party as the olympics are about sports and nationalism

People are strongly underestimating how much this race is about region. The California Democratic Party is really two parties, with the North extremely dominant, and the recall is the only chance the South has right now at reclaiming some power. Some would put up with three years of a useless Republican Governor to get that.

Ya think someone who feels compelled to comment on this election would know when the governor is elected, but apparently not. Newsflash: The election was in 2018.

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Ballot return update.

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FYI this is the only correct choice on Question 2

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Starting to think Elder is literally throwing the election on purpose.

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1435695547386634253?s=20

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So, weird thing I've noticed about recall polling: 18-34s are seemingly all over the place.

Take YouGov, Suffolk, and SurveyUSA, in the last couple weeks.





18-34s are anywhere from Yes+13 to No+35, even as 65+s are a very consistent No+15ish in all of the polls. What the heck is going on with those LV screens?

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https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1435846135801946114

Crazy Larry gets cucked by TWO governors now. Sad!

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So, weird thing I've noticed about recall polling: 18-34s are seemingly all over the place.

Take YouGov, Suffolk, and SurveyUSA, in the last couple weeks.





18-34s are anywhere from Yes+13 to No+35, even as 65+s are a very consistent No+15ish in all of the polls. What the heck is going on with those LV screens?

Update: the new SurveyUSA poll has all age groups moving 5-6%, with the notable exception of 18-34s, who have moved 19 (!!) points towards No.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

So, weird thing I've noticed about recall polling: 18-34s are seemingly all over the place.

Take YouGov, Suffolk, and SurveyUSA, in the last couple weeks.

<snip>

18-34s are anywhere from Yes+13 to No+35, even as 65+s are a very consistent No+15ish in all of the polls. What the heck is going on with those LV screens?

Update: the new SurveyUSA poll has all age groups moving 5-6%, with the notable exception of 18-34s, who have moved 19 (!!) points towards No.

<snip>

STOP using SurveyUSA, for the love of man.

lmao well I'm not going to take them entirely seriously, but their LV screening for age is obviously doing something really funky and that's at least somewhat interesting

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Crosstabs.

The LA-area underperformance that some were talking about appears to have failed to materialize.

Comparing recall voter intention with approvals, seems like not pulling a 2003 and letting Elder continue hitting himself in the face has brought home a big chunk of Dem-leaning liberals and young people who are otherwise more lukewarm on his performance.



Net No vote, less Net approval

Ideology (Con -> Lib) 0 / +7 / +14 / +15 / +17 Age (Young -> Old) +25 / +17 / +12 / +8 / +5

Oh, ye of little faith who thought Dems should have run an actual candidate. Gaze upon these crosstabs and despair.

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Why or how exactly did a state race like this get nationalized? Why is this so much more nationalized  that the NJ or VA race?

It was the Republicans. They literally shot themselves in the foot. Not that they ever had a chance, but The whole thing’s been pretty funny.

Can you explain how republicans nationalized this? It seems to me that Newsom team consisntely had non California politicians all over the news.

Also you realize anyone the GOP would have had as the front runner would have been tabled all the same things they did to elder right?

You answered your own question. The CAGOP dug its own grave and laid down in it years ago. There are precisely zero Republicans who can win California with a similar platform to the national GOP, but that's exactly what CA Republicans keep clamoring for.

Faulconer had the faintest glimmer of a chance because he hadn't drunk the Kool-Aid, and the second he started getting flak from his right flank he folded himself into a pretzel and abandoned all hope of getting any votes outside the GOP, which, mind you, is a whopping 25% of Californians.

It's the exact same story over and over and over and over again ad nauseum. The CAGOP's single brain cell realizes they can't win with Trumpism, and then is excised by the rest of the party because they're too drunk on the national GOP's Kool-Aid. Repeat until all the brain cells are gone and you have a superminority in both chambers and haven't won a row office in 10 years because your rapidly shrinking base has zero self-awareness.

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Why or how exactly did a state race like this get nationalized? Why is this so much more nationalized  that the NJ or VA race?

It was the Republicans. They literally shot themselves in the foot. Not that they ever had a chance, but The whole thing’s been pretty funny.

Can you explain how republicans nationalized this? It seems to me that Newsom team consisntely had non California politicians all over the news.

Also you realize anyone the GOP would have had as the front runner would have been tabled all the same things they did to elder right?

What were the things they did to Elder? Point to his past history of extreme statements and demonstrate that his views were entirely unlike the median California voter? You seem very aggrieved by this whole election process and I can't understand what about this you think was unfair to Republicans.

Oh I don’t think anything about this in unfair. I just disagree and don’t understand how republicans nationalized this. To me it was totally nationalized by the democrats with bringing in big names who weren’t even California politicians and referencing things going on in different states and talking about future senate appointees.

Also I firmly believe elder or no elder that the democrats would have painted any GOP nominee as far right no matter how moderate they would have been.

The median voter in California is a Democrat who leans towards the left of the national party. The onus is not on Newsom and the CA Dems to avoid nationalizing, because that is exactly what makes turnout spike. The median voter in California wants Dianne Feinstein replaced by a liberal Democrat, vaccines mandated across the entire state, and is repulsed by Trumpism.

Republicans have completely failed at putting up any remotely palatable candidate statewide in the last 10 years, precisely because they have completely ignored the importance of catering your politics towards the people of your state. For a Republican to win, they need to completely disavow the national GOP because that name is radioactive toxic waste in the state of California. The CAGOP nationalized itself in 2010 and continues to nationalize itself, which is why it hasn't won diddly squat.

You can't point at Newsom pulling in the people who appeal to 60% of Californians and go 'wah wah how come they get to nationalize the race' because that's not how it works. That's not how any of this works.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Why or how exactly did a state race like this get nationalized? Why is this so much more nationalized  that the NJ or VA race?

It was the Republicans. They literally shot themselves in the foot. Not that they ever had a chance, but The whole thing’s been pretty funny.

Can you explain how republicans nationalized this? It seems to me that Newsom team consisntely had non California politicians all over the news.

Also you realize anyone the GOP would have had as the front runner would have been tabled all the same things they did to elder right?

What were the things they did to Elder? Point to his past history of extreme statements and demonstrate that his views were entirely unlike the median California voter? You seem very aggrieved by this whole election process and I can't understand what about this you think was unfair to Republicans.

Oh I don’t think anything about this in unfair. I just disagree and don’t understand how republicans nationalized this. To me it was totally nationalized by the democrats with bringing in big names who weren’t even California politicians and referencing things going on in different states and talking about future senate appointees.

Also I firmly believe elder or no elder that the democrats would have painted any GOP nominee as far right no matter how moderate they would have been.

The median voter in California is a Democrat who leans towards the left of the national party. The onus is not on Newsom and the CA Dems to avoid nationalizing, because that is exactly what makes turnout spike. The median voter in California wants Dianne Feinstein replaced by a liberal Democrat, vaccines mandated across the entire state, and is repulsed by Trumpism.

Republicans have completely failed at putting up any remotely palatable candidate statewide in the last 10 years, precisely because they have completely ignored the importance of catering your politics towards the people of your state. For a Republican to win, they need to completely disavow the national GOP because that name is radioactive toxic waste in the state of California. The CAGOP nationalized itself in 2010 and continues to nationalize itself, which is why it hasn't won diddly squat.

You can't point at Newsom pulling in the people who appeal to 60% of Californians and go 'wah wah how come they get to nationalize the race' because that's not how it works. That's not how any of this works.

Everything you said is accurate but do you really think even if the CAGOP changes course and nominates socially moderate to liberal republicans and avoids following the national GOP it would make any difference more than maybe a point or two?
I believe that no matter what the letter “R” next to the name will do them in no matter who they run or how well of a campaign they run. It seems like literally no matter who the candidate is even if it’s the CA GOP version of Charlie Baker dems in CA will just call that person a Trump candidate which is annoying since you can be a Republican and not have anything to do with Trump. That’s the most annoying part of this is how much they make this about Trump when he isn’t even on the ballot and isn’t president

As long as Trump remains the GOP's figurehead and the person every Republican sucks up to out of fear of getting primaried, nobody's convincing anyone that he's not a factor.

The CAGOP lives in terror of their base. They kicked out Chad Mayes for having two brain cells to rub together. Kevin Faulconer has more Democrats voting for him than Republicans. There is no appetite for serious governance or actual leadership in the CAGOP, not since their Faustian bargain with the Tea Party.

If you've managed to take Orange County, the birthplace of Reagan and Nixon, which voted for Bush by 20 points in 2004, and turn it blue up and down the ballot, there is something deeply deeply wrong with your approach to politics.

The modern California Republican is more concerned about sucking up to the national GOP and playing this self-effacing "Everyone hates California, that's why they're all leaving!! Right, guys?? Haha Commiefornia amirite" shtick than seriously appealing to anyone outside their base.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Why or how exactly did a state race like this get nationalized? Why is this so much more nationalized  that the NJ or VA race?

It was the Republicans. They literally shot themselves in the foot. Not that they ever had a chance, but The whole thing’s been pretty funny.

Can you explain how republicans nationalized this? It seems to me that Newsom team consisntely had non California politicians all over the news.

Also you realize anyone the GOP would have had as the front runner would have been tabled all the same things they did to elder right?

What were the things they did to Elder? Point to his past history of extreme statements and demonstrate that his views were entirely unlike the median California voter? You seem very aggrieved by this whole election process and I can't understand what about this you think was unfair to Republicans.

Oh I don’t think anything about this in unfair. I just disagree and don’t understand how republicans nationalized this. To me it was totally nationalized by the democrats with bringing in big names who weren’t even California politicians and referencing things going on in different states and talking about future senate appointees.

Also I firmly believe elder or no elder that the democrats would have painted any GOP nominee as far right no matter how moderate they would have been.

The median voter in California is a Democrat who leans towards the left of the national party. The onus is not on Newsom and the CA Dems to avoid nationalizing, because that is exactly what makes turnout spike. The median voter in California wants Dianne Feinstein replaced by a liberal Democrat, vaccines mandated across the entire state, and is repulsed by Trumpism.

Republicans have completely failed at putting up any remotely palatable candidate statewide in the last 10 years, precisely because they have completely ignored the importance of catering your politics towards the people of your state. For a Republican to win, they need to completely disavow the national GOP because that name is radioactive toxic waste in the state of California. The CAGOP nationalized itself in 2010 and continues to nationalize itself, which is why it hasn't won diddly squat.

You can't point at Newsom pulling in the people who appeal to 60% of Californians and go 'wah wah how come they get to nationalize the race' because that's not how it works. That's not how any of this works.

Everything you said is accurate but do you really think even if the CAGOP changes course and nominates socially moderate to liberal republicans and avoids following the national GOP it would make any difference more than maybe a point or two?
I believe that no matter what the letter “R” next to the name will do them in no matter who they run or how well of a campaign they run. It seems like literally no matter who the candidate is even if it’s the CA GOP version of Charlie Baker dems in CA will just call that person a Trump candidate which is annoying since you can be a Republican and not have anything to do with Trump. That’s the most annoying part of this is how much they make this about Trump when he isn’t even on the ballot and isn’t president

As long as Trump remains the GOP's figurehead and the person every Republican sucks up to out of fear of getting primaried, nobody's convincing anyone that he's not a factor.

The CAGOP lives in terror of their base. They kicked out Chad Mayes for having two brain cells to rub together. Kevin Faulconer has more Democrats voting for him than Republicans. There is no appetite for serious governance or actual leadership in the CAGOP, not since their Faustian bargain with the Tea Party.

If you've managed to take Orange County, the birthplace of Reagan and Nixon, which voted for Bush by 20 points in 2004, and turn it blue up and down the ballot, there is something deeply deeply wrong with your approach to politics.

The modern California Republican is more concerned about sucking up to the national GOP and playing this self-effacing "Everyone hates California, that's why they're all leaving!! Right, guys?? Haha Commiefornia amirite" shtick than seriously appealing to anyone outside their base.

We’ll in fairness even in 2010 and 2014 when Trump wasn’t a factor pro choice republicans like Meg Whitman and Neel Kashmiri got killed as well

That should be an argument for the CAGOP being bad at politics rather than being crushed by anti-Trump partisanship.

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Let's gooooo JOHN DRAKE

vote SUBMISSIVE AND BREEDABLE

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It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

 It does mean that 6 Rs can be Redistricted out of California

Why stop at 6? Go for 7.

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Does nobody else see the insanely low turnout in Imperial County, California?

Look, on New York Times currently, it says the following:

Imperial County, California (Pop 180K in 2020)
No - 61.3% - 8,830
Yes - 38.7% - 5,572
40% of estimated votes

Now compare it to another county of similar size:

Shasta County, California (Pop 182K in 2020)

Yes - 66.3% - 30,932
No - 33.7% - 15,726
74% of estimated votes


What's going on here? Is it that in Imperial County in‐person voting is much higher proportionally and we can expect for that to show a large increase? Do they have historically low turnout? When is our next Imperial County update?

Newsom won Imperial 20K - 12K in 2018, if anything that expected turnout seems really high lmao

Imperial has 88.5K registered voters, vs Shasta's 113K.

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I think we've all seen enough. I'm calling it. Gavin Newsom is retained as the Governor of California. Tough call, I know, but someone's gotta do it.