CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[CityofSinners]

Probolsky Research survey of CA:

Newsom fav/unfav: 42-39 (all California voters)
47-37 (likely recall voters)

Recall Q: 40% support recall, 46% oppose (all voters)

35% support recall, 52% oppose (likely recall voters)

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2021/03/23/newsom-recall-poll/

Absenting a big scandal dropping Newsom will comfortably win.

[CityofSinners]

There will be a million comparison to Arnold Schwarzenegger. Arnold was a much better candidate

He had higher name-id and a better image. Schwarzenegger was active in (GOP) politics including ballot measures.
Jenner is really untested.

[CityofSinners]

I wonder how much of the total vote is already in. 2018 turnout was 12.5 million and 2020 17 million.

I would assume the turnout is a bit below 2018. Maybe around 11 million.

[CityofSinners]

my prediction is if NO wins by 15+ points dems will put a measure reforming recalls on the ballot in 2024. The larger the recall victory the larger the reform will be.

[CityofSinners]

Could Paffrath finish second in the 2022 primary?

The only reason Paffrath is even mentioned because SurveyUSA decided to include him as the only democrat. Other polls including all dems have him in the low single digits.

Once this recall is done nobody will care about Paffrath anymore.

[CityofSinners]

I think we all agree CA republicans didn't run their best campaign. I wonder though how much that mattered.
Imagine CA republicans ran the in your opinion perfect campaign. How much better would they do?

My guess would be 5 percentage points. This recall was all about Newsom. Even a perfect campaign would just have gotten some voters who disapprove of Newsom but hate Elders even more.

[CityofSinners]

https://twitter.com/RzstProgramming/status/1436801065140334596

At this point it's like beating a dead Horse. This is Safe Newsom.