CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Honestly, there is maybe a path for Faulconer to get within single digits of winning.

No.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just popping in to say that Kounalakis has absolutely no profile and would not be the "mainstream Dem" choice in a recall election.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Kounalakis, Ma, and Yee have all kindasorta (jokingly? who knows) expressed interest in Gov runs before. I'm tempted to say Yee has the most profile just because she's been around the longest, but none of them have close to the profile Gavin or even Villaraigosa had last time.

Let's be honest, a row official probably couldn't pull it off. You need to look to congress and the mayors to find someone with a plausible shot at victory.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Kounalakis, Ma, and Yee have all kindasorta (jokingly? who knows) expressed interest in Gov runs before. I'm tempted to say Yee has the most profile just because she's been around the longest, but none of them have close to the profile Gavin or even Villaraigosa had last time.

Let's be honest, a row official probably couldn't pull it off. You need to look to congress and the mayors to find someone with a plausible shot at victory.

What about John Chiang? He'd probably do the best job.

I'm not sure he has the profile. He's not even in elected office anymore. The only person from that lane (former row officer) who I think could do it is Becerra, but running right now would be an obviously awkward decision. Otherwise you're looking at mayors (Garcetti, Faulconer, maybe Breed, maybe Schaff) or members of congress (Lieu, Schiff, Porter, maybe Khanna, etc.)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm not sure he has the profile. He's not even in elected office anymore. The only person from that lane (former row officer) who I think could do it is Becerra, but running right now would be an obviously awkward decision. Otherwise you're looking at mayors (Garcetti, Faulconer, maybe Breed, maybe Schaff) or members of congress (Lieu, Schiff, Porter, maybe Khanna, etc.)

I’m surprised you’re not pushing Steve Westly here - seems the obvious choice for neoliberals.

He definitely wouldn't be a serious candidate.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

What exactly is the problem with Newsom? I think California's problem is mainly too high cost of living and the homelessness crisis. His pandemic management could be better from what I read, but there are worse governors on this. I feel like Jerry Brown was by far the best governor in America in recent years.

Yeah Jerry was great. Gavin is no Jerry.

The issue with Newsom isn't what he's done (pandemic mismanagement and general corruption aside); it's what he hasn't done. I love California dearly but we have massive problems--all of which need to be addressed with landmark legislation like yesterday.

You're right about cost of living--but that isn't a fact of life; it's a product of deliberate choices the state has made. It wasn't always like this and it doesn't have to be this way going forward. We need zoning reform, infrastructure, improvements to K-12 education and our graduation rate, something done about homelessness, something done about the brutal social immobility faced by young Californians, something done about our increasingly unbearable taxes and regulations, HSR finished already, the Delta Tunnels, something done about insane local control, and more. And yet, Gavin hasn't bothered to tackle a single issue. It's like he doesn't even care about improving our state. I have no idea what he does all day because it sure as hell isn't working with the legislature on actually fixing sh!t.

I mean, c'mon, California is supposed to be the culmination of the American dream but we shrunk as a state last year. And yet, Gavin does nothing.

(And considering his tenure as Mayor of SF, this could be foreseen from a mile away.)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm frankly ambivalent on the recall. I don't like Gavin, which should be obvious if you've read anything else I've said in this thread. Blairite said it pretty well: we need someone who's going to at least take a potshot at solving CA's problems. I think we would have decent odds of replacing him with a better Democrat in a recall.

I was ambivalent on recall but I've moved pretty strongly to "yes" on ethical grounds. I don't like Gavin, I've never liked Gavin, and I think lots of other people could do the job of governor more effectively. I also don't much like recall elections as a thing and I'm skeptical of overturning the mandate of voters. However, they're the law of the land and if it is ever appropriate to invoke them, it's in the case of gross incompetence and corruption. In my view, both of these apply to Gavin's actions. This election is just a question of basic fairness. Hopefully a serious Democrat will run a strong and reform-minded campaign instead of letting this turn into the absolute sh!tshow it could easily become.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

You alright? Seems like you're going through something right now.

Anyway, I'm against the recall & Schwarzenegger was much worse.

Schwarzenegger was much better than Gavin. And I've been anti-Gavin for years longer than I've been on this forum. I'm doing just fine, this is just how I always am about Gavin. I was furious when he won the primary in 2018 and only decided to back him over Cox at the last minute--a choice I now regret. He does not deserve his office.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

Who do you see as potentially successful governor of California? I agree that Newsom's tenure is underwhelming, though I oppose the recall (like most recalls, just go through regular elections). London Breed? Eleni Kounalakis? John Chiang? Adam Schiff?

Schiff, Lieu, Becerra, and Breed are the obvious ones imo. Maybe Porter. I still think Villaraigosa would have been great but he's DOA.

The thing is, I oppose almost all recalls. I don't like the process at all. But if they're the law of the land, then they are to be used in two situations: 1) dereliction of duty or 2) corruption. In my view, Gavin meets both criteria. He hit the first when California surged in cases in November and thousands of excess deaths occurred here over the nation as a whole. That localized surge never had to happen and the fact that it did speaks to a failure on the part of statewide leadership. Those excess deaths are the fault of Gavin Newsom, personally. The second occurred when he violated his own Covid restrictions--which is self explanatory.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

Yes.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Larry Elder claims the ideal minimum wage is....nothing.

California workers currently earn a minimum of $13 or $14 an hour, but Larry Elder says he’d get rid of a legal baseline altogether.

“For somebody who’s never run a business to tell business people... ‘I’m going to jack up your price of labor, and you’re going to deal with it,’ to me, it’s offensive,” said Elder, a longtime conservative talk radio host and leading candidate to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in the recall election this fall.

“The ideal minimum wage is $0.00,” he added.

PSA: Vote Faulconer on question two.

Just in case.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Larry Elder claims the ideal minimum wage is....nothing.

California workers currently earn a minimum of $13 or $14 an hour, but Larry Elder says he’d get rid of a legal baseline altogether.

“For somebody who’s never run a business to tell business people... ‘I’m going to jack up your price of labor, and you’re going to deal with it,’ to me, it’s offensive,” said Elder, a longtime conservative talk radio host and leading candidate to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in the recall election this fall.

“The ideal minimum wage is $0.00,” he added.

PSA: Vote Faulconer on question two.

Just in case.

This unknown "Kevin Paffrath" guy is somehow leading in a replacement poll for presumably no other reason than the fact that there happens to be a "(D)" next to his name. Is he any good?

No, he is not.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Lets say Newsom gets recalled, what could a Republican Governor do with a Democratic state legislature with veto-proof super majorities?

Competently or incompetently manage the executive branch, respond to emergencies, oversee FEMA and the national guard through fire season, etc.

Which is why it's actually so important that Faulconer beats Elder or Paffrath on question two. The mechanisms of state government could absolutely melt down with someone that stupid at the top.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Lets say Newsom gets recalled, what could a Republican Governor do with a Democratic state legislature with veto-proof super majorities?

Competently or incompetently manage the executive branch, respond to emergencies, oversee FEMA and the national guard through fire season, etc.

Which is why it's actually so important that Faulconer beats Elder or Paffrath on question two. The mechanisms of state government could absolutely melt down with someone that stupid at the top.

I will be voting for James Hanink of the American Solidarity Party (https://jameshanink.com/) for the second question on the recall. I'm definitely voting no on the recall itself since Newsom-while mediocre-has benefited me personally with the stimulus check and other needed spending. Hanink will give voice to the principles of consistent life ethics and the politics of solidarity in the State of California.

Good for you. I'm not interested in throwing away my vote in a first past the post election. Not that I'd vote ASP anyway.