CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Canis]

Newsoms approvals surged at the beginning of the outbreak but have been crashing down ever since If Biden wins and its a dem midterm a strong Republican like San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer could mount a serious Challenge would Faulconer stand a chance or is the state to far gone?

[Canis]

Decided to turn this into the CA megathread anyone have any thoughts on the LA mayoral election next year the race seems wide open with Garcetti term limited https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Los_Angeles_mayoral_election
Mike Feurer  seems to be the frontrunner of the declared candidates but his endorsement of Lacey shows exactly where he stands lol I expect at least one more major candidate to declare be it John Lee or Kevin De Leon but I doubt Lee would wanna lose his seat on city council for a run at mayor which he would not have a real good shot at winning. Gruel, Wesson, and Ridley Thomas could all run too honestly no idea who im gonna back none of the candidates look particularly good.
So who do you guys think will run or win? I feel like theirs no candidate who could run and not have to go to a runoff this race will probably be quite competitive

[Canis]

Yeah the only way I could see newsom lose to a D challenger is if he was challenged by a Hispanic moderate who could win the Hispanic vote and the republican vote but as we've seen in CA Sen 2018 thats not enough sometimes and before the Democrat who seemed like he could do that to beat Villaraigosa was in 2018 and Villas career is basically over.

[Canis]

Since we're discussing LA politics, what's everyones thoughts on the DA race? I'm honestly unsure how this turns out.

With COVID throwing a wrench into local campaigning, I'm going into November with the assumption that local incumbents are at a very good advantage. I can see Lacey winning by a bigger margin than expected (55-45?)

At the same time, Gascons got everyone you'd want endorsing him. State & County Democratic Parties, LA Times, SEIU, Newsom, Harris, Dolores Huerta, Warren, Bernie, among plenty others

This race is truly a tossup i predict it will turn out like LA sheriff 2018 with the incumbent with a small lead that evaporates as VBM comes in but I could really see it going either way im voting for Gascon and hopes he wins Rossi would have made a better DA though hope we get  a poll of this race

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1306692797920161794
In other LA County political news Villanueva looks like hes in huge trouble wonder if were gonna elect 3 new Sherrifs back to back lol

[Canis]

I called this years ago haha Newsoms facing a lot of flak rn cause of him attending a dinner party after tightening covid restrictions This starts out at Safe D but could move to likely I just don't see Falcourner getting 50% if he really overpreforms and D turnout is low he could get low-mid 40's but even then that's a bg stretch I wonder if any D's will hop in to challenge Newsom and if Faulcorner will be the only GOP opponent

[Canis]

Seems as though we have the first poll for Newsom vs Faulocner.
Survey USA poll says in San Diego county, 38% Faulconer, 36% Newsom, rest undecided, Faulconer draws 20% of Democrats while Newsom gets 12% of Republicans.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=229207e8-4908-4ea4-b0b8-a18e36b2d338&c=37

Impressive that Faulconers getting 20% of democrats but still being unable to break 40% in a county that your a two-term mayor of the largest city in doesn't really bode well in a state as democratic as California...

[Canis]

Monday is the last day of certification and they're at around 1.2 million signatures out of 1.49 million needed. So any day now (Though we've known for months now).


For a blast from the past, Mary Carey & Angelyne announced their replacement campaigns:

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-billboard-icon-angelyne-former-porn-star-mary-carey-say-theyll-run-to-replace-newsom-if-recall-qualifies/

A little strange that we've heard nothing yet I mean its obvious it'll qualify but shouldn't we know by now? Also any idea on who the dems will run in the race? the only name I've really heard been floated is Villa

[Canis]

....

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1385587301246541830

So the GOP vote is gonna be split 4 ways Doug Ose Kevin Faulconer John Cox Caitlyn Jenner and meanwhile the Democrat candidates have yet to announce. Pelosi did a really smart move by saying that we only need one democrat in the race because if the recall passes the gop vote is split a lot already its really smart politics. I don't see the recall passing though but its a good idea to keep the democratic vote consolidated.

[Canis]

When I was a baby my Dad ran into Angelyne in the Trader Joe's parking lot and my Dad knew Angelyne from the music industry and apparently, she picked me up and I tried to breastfeed from her and was going all crazy while she was holding me. (nothing important from that story just thought it was funny)
If no major democrats declare (Which I doubt because if the recall passes with no democrat on the ballot that is a disaster waiting to happen) I'll probably vote for Faulconer as he seems like the Republican who would be the least horrible and he seems like he has enough executive experience to govern the state well. Or I might cast a joke vote for Angelyne in honor of my baby self hilariously going nuts trying to breastfeed from her in a trader joes parking lot 2 decades ago.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1386802857047851009?s=19

Given that CA has, what, 15M+ registered voters, it feels as though 1.5M seems like a very low threshold for a recall.

The recall and initiative guidelines were voted in place in 1911 and definitely should be updated I think Hiram Johnson had no clue how big the state would end up getting. I think it should probably be something like 25% of registered voters instead of 12 % of ballots cast in the last election especially with us having our elections in lower turnout midterms. I am a fan of having the ballot initiative process we have passed many laws it would take much longer to get through the state leg but it does have its downsides. and now its easy for corporations to buys laws (Prop 22 and 23)

[Canis]

Only bringing this up because it's a local-ish story for me.


Press Enterprise: Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt to run in Newsom recall

Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt announced Friday night, April 30, that he will run for governor as a Libertarian in the upcoming recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Hewitt made the announcement before a crowd of at least 30 supporters gathered in downtown Riverside.

In an interview before speaking, Hewitt said he was running because “I’ve seen Riverside County shortchanged.” He cited the fact that the county doesn’t get its fair share of state funding and didn’t get enough coronavirus vaccine when doses were in short supply.

Hewitt’s campaign, he said, will feature a theme of “innovation overall.” Top priorities will include water, housing and education. Hewitt said he could balance his duties as a county supervisor with his campaign by skipping the ceremonial aspects of his current post.[...]

Hewitt previously formed an exploratory committee for a 2022 gubernatorial bid and said in early April he was open to running for governor next year or in a recall. If Newsom survives the recall, he would face re-election next year.

A former Calimesa mayor, Hewitt was elected in 2018 to represent the Board of Supervisors’ Fifth District, which includes the San Gorgonio Pass, Moreno Valley, Perris and Menifee. His upset win over former GOP Assemblyman Russ Bogh was lauded by the national Libertarian Party.

Hewitt is up for re-election in 2022, meaning he could run in the recall and not give up his supervisor seat.

As a supervisor, Hewitt has voted against most labor deals with county employee unions. He’s also been a critic of coronavirus business restrictions and tried unsuccessfully to get the county to forge its own reopening path.[...]

Hewitt also might face questions about a claim filed by a county employee who alleged Hewitt sexually harassed her during a visit to a Cherry Valley skilled nursing facility last May. That claim was settled for $50,000 in taxpayer funds.

Another claim, filed April 8 by a female ex-Hewitt staffer, accuses the supervisor and his chief of staff of “making disparaging and vulgar comments” and engaging in age and gender discrimination prior to the employee leaving county government. That claim is still pending, county spokeswoman Brooke Federico said.

But why? he currently holds the balance of power for the board of supervisors, it's literally libertarian controlled.

Yeah, I don't understand either apparently he can still run for reelection 2022 after he loses though so maybe he's just trying to get a decent performance for the Libertarians. He is literally the most powerful Libertarian across the country rn he represents more than a Million people in Riverside county.

Also in some other Recall news John Cox has decided to do some interesting campaign rebranding by calling himself "The Beast"
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1389300092570509312

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1389343867325992960
CA GOP.... What happened to you?

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/ABCLiz/status/1389679453958070274?s=19

[Canis]

Animal rights group mad at Cox for the Bear on the campaign trail. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bear-stunt-gop-governor-california-candidate_n_60927ea6e4b04620270e0695

[Canis]

New SurveyUSA poll:

April 30-May 2, 642 RV, MoE: 5.3%

First question
47% Remain in office
36% Recall
17% Not sure

Second question
9% Cox
5% Grenell
5% Jenner
3% Faulconer
3% Mercuri
3% Moorlach
3% Cernovich
3% Williams
2% Ose
26% Undecided
38% Would not support any

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e3ae1d7e-9d6e-44b2-b1f8-e51c51df9ea2

Very sad number for Faulconer lol also interestingly the Recall Leads narrowly among 18-30-year-olds and I can see that being true Newsoms very unpopular among my demographic I know many lefty young people who are undecided on the recall or supporting it it being about even with young voters right now makes sense to me.

[Canis]

New SurveyUSA poll:

April 30-May 2, 642 RV, MoE: 5.3%

First question
47% Remain in office
36% Recall
17% Not sure

Second question
9% Cox
5% Grenell
5% Jenner
3% Faulconer
3% Mercuri
3% Moorlach
3% Cernovich
3% Williams
2% Ose
26% Undecided
38% Would not support any

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e3ae1d7e-9d6e-44b2-b1f8-e51c51df9ea2

Very sad number for Faulconer lol also interestingly the Recall Leads narrowly among 18-30-year-olds and I can see that being true Newsoms very unpopular among my demographic I know many lefty young people who are undecided on the recall or supporting it it being about even with young voters right now makes sense to me.

Could be true, could not be true. But SurveyUSA's crosstabs have always been a bit finicky. I'd like another poll to see if young voters are a pro-recall group.

Like that one poll that got a bit of attention here due to Hispanics being more pro-recall than whites, then looking more like an outlier with each poll afterwards.

Agreed we need more polls to confirm or deny it.

[Canis]

Not sure if I'm surprised or not, but it feels like Faulconer has been MIA for months now. I completely forgot he was running.

Grennel is getting the Trumpist attention, Jenner the celebrity attention and now Cox with the bear thing (It may be stupid, but at least it gets him in the news a bit). Faulconer is gonna have to do something to get his name out and I'm not sure it's yelling for schools to reopen at the same time most schools are reopened.

We'll see as we get closer to the summer/fall or things really get under way. But as of right now, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up finishing 3rd or lower.

Agreed he's running a very quiet campaign while Jenner and Cox are getting a lot of media attention Cox also just bought a 6 million dollar ad buy across the state and I've started to see Cox ads I've seen nothing for Faulconer so far.

[Canis]

Watch all the peace loving LGBT activists say transphobic s*** about Caitlyn Jenner now that they realized she's based and red pilled.  We don't care what you do in the bedroom, if you love America, we support you.  I hereby endorse Caitlyn Jenner for governor~!

I thought you would endorse Newsom. He’s been the best governor when it comes to COVID!

Phil Scott would beg to differ with you.

Eh I mean Handling Covid in a state like Vermont with less than a million people is a lot easier than handling it in a state with 40 million people. I think Scott has handled Covid better but Newsoms been doing his best for how difficult a situation we were in. It's hard to compare their handling of the situation with how vastly different the states they govern are.

[Canis]

Reason 3187 Why the Recall will fail by 15+ points
https://twitter.com/akoseff/status/1391810882561220614

[Canis]

While Newsom could be a little more visionary and pass more good legislation, he's overall a pretty good governor. I don't get the disdain for him. The budget situation is excellent and a great accomplishment Brown, one of the best governors ever, handed over to him. Back in 2003, the large deficits were one reason Davis was voted out.

I can't wait to see Mr. 1000 pound bear and his buddies fail badly. And because it's so much fun, they will be slaughtered again in 2022.

A lot of the disdain is general California complaints; Homelessness, cost of living, housing shortage, etc. Apparently, none of those problems existed here until Newsom became Governor.

Yep these problems have worsened under Newsom but theirs no real correlation with his governance to their rise these problems have been getting worse and worse for decades. Hopefully, Newsom can come up with some solutions them but these are complicated problems and theirs no easy fixes for them.

[Canis]

Anyone outside the LA media market been getting Faulconer ads recently? Saw my first few here a couple days ago.

I got a few recently, I'm in the LA media market though. Wonder when we're gonna get a date for the election I'm pretty sure their gonna pick first Tuesday of November.

[Canis]

The deadline to file was today we officially have all our candidates I went to each website and not a big fan of any of em John Drake is the closest to me policy-wise but I'm not in favor of electing a completely inexperienced college student so I guess I'm gonna have to vote for Faulconer on question 2 ugh.. Faulconer was a decent mayor of San Diego and he's not completely nuts and of all the candidates running I trust him the most to not run the state into the ground but this is a pretty horrible bunch of candidates.
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/07/18/california-has-41-candidates-for-september-recall-election-1388537
List of all the candidates their party affiliation and websites for yall to look at
https://www.reddit.com/r/California_Politics/comments/onepr4/california_has_41_candidates_for_september_recall/h5rgt28?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

[Canis]

Larry Elder claims the ideal minimum wage is....nothing.

California workers currently earn a minimum of $13 or $14 an hour, but Larry Elder says he’d get rid of a legal baseline altogether.

“For somebody who’s never run a business to tell business people... ‘I’m going to jack up your price of labor, and you’re going to deal with it,’ to me, it’s offensive,” said Elder, a longtime conservative talk radio host and leading candidate to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in the recall election this fall.

“The ideal minimum wage is $0.00,” he added.

PSA: Vote Faulconer on question two.

Just in case.

Agreed he's the only candidate on the Question 2 line that has enough executive experience to run a state as big as California. I still hope we see none of these candidates in the governor's office ever.

[Canis]

I got a call last night that my mail-in ballot is on the way and will arrive within the day from the LA county registrar.