CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[coloradocowboi]

Newsom is more likely to face a credible challenger to his left than a credible Republican, but they would fail too. He isn't going anywhere, and it would be a waste of time to even try (although I welcome it).

[coloradocowboi]

Agree with the others that GOP has no chance under any circumstances here. Not while they are still the racism party (which they will be for at least another decade thanks to their base).

Newsom is more likely to face a credible challenger to his left than a credible Republican, but they would fail too. He isn't going anywhere, and it would be a waste of time to even try (although I welcome it).

Newsom has always been fairly progressive without angering more centrist Dems. He's not comparable to someone like Cuomo, who's more likely to lose to a primary opponent rather than a GOPer (neither will happen though). Unless a completely fractured field, the CA GOP is still strong enough to overcome any potential Dem challenger to Newsom to make it into the runoff as long as their leading candidate gets at least 20% of the vote in a jungle primary.

Fairly progressive? How?

I can barely go outside today in central Los Angeles because of how bad the smoke is. Meanwhile, Newsom has approved 48 fracking permits just since April. He's from the centrist, establishment wing of the party.

I am not sure about that. It will really depend on who progressives nominate. After Bernie getting nearly 40% of the vote, I think we should hardly discount a progressive insurgent getting ~20% to Newsom's 40% in the initial primary. But then Republicans would rescue him. One way or the other, he gets re-elected somewhere in the 60-40 range even in the worst scenarios.

[coloradocowboi]

PPIC
January 21-31 (Last poll: November 4-23)
1,703 California residents (English & Spanish)

Newsom Job Approval

All Adults
Approve:  54%  (-4)
Disapprove:  36%  (-4)
N/A:  10%  (+9)

Likely Voters
Approve:  52%  (-7)
Disapprove:  43%  (+3)
N/A:  5%  (+4)

Basically, his approvals have fallen back down to his pre-COVID levels. PPIC's survey in early January 2020 had him 51-34 among all adults & 49-42 among likely voters.

And if you wanna compare recall to recall (despite the obvious differences in the electorate), Davis' PPIC approvals in February 2003 were 33-60 among adults & 24-72 among likely voters.


https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2021.pdf

Also of note is that only 70% of Democrats approve of Newsom. There is a sizable and vocal minority within the party that has been dissatisfied with him because they don't think he's been strict enough with COVID prevention. They won't oust him though, and should kinda be disregarded as part of his opposition because they aren't going to vote for Faulconer under any circumstances and will flock home to Newsom in a 1-1 matchup.

Newsom is only moderately popular, but his opposition is fractured. I am assuming he will both defeat the recall and win re-election in 22

[coloradocowboi]

Probolsky Research survey of CA:

Newsom fav/unfav: 42-39 (all California voters)
47-37 (likely recall voters)

Recall Q: 40% support recall, 46% oppose (all voters)

35% support recall, 52% oppose (likely recall voters)

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2021/03/23/newsom-recall-poll/

Absenting a big scandal dropping Newsom will comfortably win.

Honestly think the race data there is the most interesting stuff, namely Latinos being 44.5% support to 41.4% oppose, and blacks being 18.8% support to 71.9% oppose. Really makes sense in the context of who's being hurt by Newsom's brownie point based covid rules.

I think also that there is a lot more partisanship among Black voters, leading them to be skeptical about a Republican-run recall. Latinos are more likely to be both/either conservative or far-left comparatively, so they are more comfortable with recalling Newsom because they don't see him as intrinsically "on their team."

[coloradocowboi]

Undecided on the recall, probably a no though, and it's losing either way 60-40

[coloradocowboi]

Watch all the peace loving LGBT activists say transphobic s*** about Caitlyn Jenner now that they realized she's based and red pilled.  We don't care what you do in the bedroom, if you love America, we support you.  I hereby endorse Caitlyn Jenner for governor~!

What will Gavin Newsom do without the coveted "DabbingSanta endorsement?"  At this rate, he'll never win the Random Canadian Incel vote!  

You're really just proving the point of how nasty the left can be. Calling someone you don't know an incel because you disagree with them...

More offended by calling incels what they are than: 1. illegal wars, 2. massive poverty cause by corrupt politicians, 3. anti-LGBTQ sentiment, 4. cops killing kids

Just enough with these pearl-clutching statements already. Look at the state of our nation's politics, "the left's" mean comments on BBS boards and social media are hardly the source of the problem. So listen up snowflake, steel yourself, plug up those tear holes, and learn to deal with a little bit of "nasty" because god knows no matter how nice their words are that liberals and conservatives policies are a lot nastier than anything someone could say, especially calling some totally debased online edgelord an incel lmao

[coloradocowboi]

I just read that the cost of this recall is $215 million.

Conservatives wasting government resources on their made up problems, what else is new?

[coloradocowboi]

+15 points for the Democrat, no matter who they may be and no matter who the GOP challenger is. I don't think this is a race, even if it's a strong GOP night overall.

The GOP is dead in the water in CA.

The natural result of their "Southern Strategy," and what they have to look forward to in the future in plenty of other diverse states.

[coloradocowboi]

+15 points for the Democrat, no matter who they may be and no matter who the GOP challenger is. I don't think this is a race, even if it's a strong GOP night overall.

The GOP is dead in the water in CA.

The natural result of their "Southern Strategy," and what they have to look forward to in the future in plenty of other diverse states.

Are you implying that the "Emerging Democratic Majority" is still going to be a reality?

For sure. But it's nuanced. I think in California, the Democratic Party is already fractured into a center-right, pro-business faction and a center-left, social democracy faction and we are honestly far better governed and far better equipped to deal with the challenges of the future than other states. Republicans who have been able to align themselves more with center-right ideology, e.g. Schwarzenegger, Valadao, Poizner, Kim, and so on, have been able to win elections they shouldn't have been able to. Their "brand" aligns more with centrist democrats - pro status quo. The problem is that the national GOP's brand is much worse, pretty much accepted by 2/3 of the population here as outright fascism, and thus toxic.

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

[coloradocowboi]

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

All I see in this response is condescension covering up a completely non-existent argument for your position lol. The fact remains that the GOP's racist rhetoric lost them California for a generation and will do the same. It's well-established in the peer reviewed lit, which I hold in higher esteem tbh than the cantankerous posts of someone who I've seen be wrong many times in this forum. In Nov of 2012, the GOP held numerous seats in CA that are either Dem or soon-to-be Dem (bye Garcia!) and very diverse, so there's some data for you that backs up my claims. Come back and snark at me when the GOP wins a recall instead of wasting milions of dollars to barely outperform their standard performance in what was otherwise a Republican wave year lol. What other trends could you be talking about besides the results of actual elections lol?

My point is that popular culture, despised as it is by Trumpers, still rules public opinion in CA. And it does elsewhere, but has less power. I remember when people like you made the exact same argument you're making now about gay rights. The thinking was that it was an artifact of liberal America and something that rural and southern states couldn't get behind, ever. And nonetheless,  PRRI recentlly found majority support in nearly every state for legal same-sex marriage. And a wealth of empirical literature links that to television, film, and social media disseminating liberal America's changing values on gay rights to young people across the nation. I never said that Republicans demonizing Hollywood is why anyone votes against the GOP, but rather that their culture war has poisoned their image with young and diverse voters. And that's also well supported by data.

What annoys me the most about responses like this it the accusation that I "live in a bubble." Sorry, I live in Los Angeles, the second biggest city in this country and one of the largest in the world. I spend every day talking about politics with my neighbors and community members, and by the way spent a whole year getting them to vote against the Democratic machine for a no-name, DSA candidate in a wealthy and relatively white city council district. So, I have a pretty good pulse on what they think. And I know it's fashionable here, as elsewhere, to finger wag at urbanites about how they "don't understand normal people" because I admittedly don't understand what motivates white, poor people in Montana to vote for a party that takes from them to give to the rich. But you equally don't understand anything about the normal people I encounter every day, who hate the GOP with a burning passion and everything it stands for, and who came out to vote in the millions, many for the first time, to boot Trump out of office and to rescue our governor from a Republican recall. There are millions of progressives in places like California, most of them working class and not some weird rich college kid caricature that fits your narrative. And there are also millions of center-right people of color who will never vote GOP because it's synonymous with racism. I don't get why this is controversial or confusing for you, when Rick Caruso himself just announced he was becoming a Democrat yesterday for the same rationale I just provided. The GOP brand is toxic anywhere that's young, hip, or diverse, and that's not going to change any time soon. Come to LA and ask why Larry Elder motivated so many progressives to come out to vote when they wouldn't have. It's not because of your fantasy that he was somehow conservative in the wrong way lol.

As you yourself note NJ and VA, where the electorate was older, whiter, and had lower turnout, were good races for the GOP while they got buried in CA. So, it looks like your counterevidence actually just bolsters my point. As the rest of the nation tends toward diversity, the Millennial generation, and higher voter turnout, it will pose challenges to a very unpopular, frankly uncool GOP.

[coloradocowboi]

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

All I see in this response is condescension covering up a completely non-existent argument for your position lol. The fact remains that the GOP's racist rhetoric lost them California for a generation and will do the same. It's well-established in the peer reviewed lit, which I hold in higher esteem tbh than the cantankerous posts of someone who I've seen be wrong many times in this forum. In Nov of 2012, the GOP held numerous seats in CA that are either Dem or soon-to-be Dem (bye Garcia!) and very diverse, so there's some data for you that backs up my claims. Come back and snark at me when the GOP wins a recall instead of wasting milions of dollars to barely outperform their standard performance in what was otherwise a Republican wave year lol. What other trends could you be talking about besides the results of actual elections lol?

My point is that popular culture, despised as it is by Trumpers, still rules public opinion in CA. And it does elsewhere, but has less power. I remember when people like you made the exact same argument you're making now about gay rights. The thinking was that it was an artifact of liberal America and something that rural and southern states couldn't get behind, ever. And nonetheless,  PRRI recentlly found majority support in nearly every state for legal same-sex marriage. And a wealth of empirical literature links that to television, film, and social media disseminating liberal America's changing values on gay rights to young people across the nation. I never said that Republicans demonizing Hollywood is why anyone votes against the GOP, but rather that their culture war has poisoned their image with young and diverse voters. And that's also well supported by data.

What annoys me the most about responses like this it the accusation that I "live in a bubble." Sorry, I live in Los Angeles, the second biggest city in this country and one of the largest in the world. I spend every day talking about politics with my neighbors and community members, and by the way spent a whole year getting them to vote against the Democratic machine for a no-name, DSA candidate in a wealthy and relatively white city council district. So, I have a pretty good pulse on what they think. And I know it's fashionable here, as elsewhere, to finger wag at urbanites about how they "don't understand normal people" because I admittedly don't understand what motivates white, poor people in Montana to vote for a party that takes from them to give to the rich. But you equally don't understand anything about the normal people I encounter every day, who hate the GOP with a burning passion and everything it stands for, and who came out to vote in the millions, many for the first time, to boot Trump out of office and to rescue our governor from a Republican recall. There are millions of progressives in places like California, most of them working class and not some weird rich college kid caricature that fits your narrative. And there are also millions of center-right people of color who will never vote GOP because it's synonymous with racism. I don't get why this is controversial or confusing for you, when Rick Caruso himself just announced he was becoming a Democrat yesterday for the same rationale I just provided. The GOP brand is toxic anywhere that's young, hip, or diverse, and that's not going to change any time soon. Come to LA and ask why Larry Elder motivated so many progressives to come out to vote when they wouldn't have. It's not because of your fantasy that he was somehow conservative in the wrong way lol.

As you yourself note NJ and VA, where the electorate was older, whiter, and had lower turnout, were good races for the GOP while they got buried in CA. So, it looks like your counterevidence actually just bolsters my point. As the rest of the nation tends toward diversity, the Millennial generation, and higher voter turnout, it will pose challenges to a very unpopular, frankly uncool GOP.

This is possibly the single most arrogant and condescending thing I’ve read on this forum, perhaps worse than the original post he was commenting on. Get some fresh air!

Cool, but whether what I said is "condescending" or not, the GOP is just wasting its time in diverse places like California because most of us perceive them as a party for bigots and know-nothings. Up to y'all to decide whether or not accept that reality. Newsom gonna win by 20+ points either way