CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Greedo punched first]

Did any Feinstein 2018 counties flip to yes so far?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Larry Elder teasing a 2022 run?
https://twitter.com/larryelder/status/1440095580403867651?s=20

Cringe.

[E-Dawg]

Did any Feinstein 2018 counties flip to yes so far?

Every Feinstein 2018 county voted no and none of them look likely to flip. If you meant Newsom 2018, then Merced already flipped to yes and San Bernadino most likely will too

San Bernardino shifted from +4.0% NO with 60% reporting to +3.6% NO With 77% reporting. Won't come close to flipping if the rate of changes stays the same.

Riverside shifted from +4.8% NO with 62% reporting to just +3.4% NO with 76% reporting. If it keeps shifting at that same rate, it will be very close but still not enough to flip.

My bolded takes above now look to have been wrong, the late ballots were a lot more Yes-leaning than we expected.

[wbrocks67]

We've crossed 11M

89% reporting

NO 6,984,595 (63.0%)
YES 4,094,764 (37.0%)

= 11,079,359

[Greedo punched first]

Is CA-48 the only Feinstein 2018 House district that voted for the recall?

[Skill and Chance]

Did any Feinstein 2018 counties flip to yes so far?

Every Feinstein 2018 county voted no and none of them look likely to flip. If you meant Newsom 2018, then Merced already flipped to yes and San Bernadino most likely will too

San Bernardino shifted from +4.0% NO with 60% reporting to +3.6% NO With 77% reporting. Won't come close to flipping if the rate of changes stays the same.

Riverside shifted from +4.8% NO with 62% reporting to just +3.4% NO with 76% reporting. If it keeps shifting at that same rate, it will be very close but still not enough to flip.

My bolded takes above now look to have been wrong, the late ballots were a lot more Yes-leaning than we expected.

L.A. county updates this evening, likely with a big pro-R batch of votes given what we saw elsewhere in SoCal yesterday.  L.A. probably falls below 70% No when this is all said and done, which would be a notbable underperformance vs. Newsom 2018/Biden 2020. 

[Greedo punched first]

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

[_.]

Los Angeles County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since Friday's update)

70.67% (-0.01%) / 1,902,791 votes (+141,838) / NO
29.33% (+0.01%) / 789,638 votes (+59,175) / YES


Los Angeles County stands firmly within the "No" column, refusing to dip below 70%.

[_.]

Sacramento County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since Friday's update)

61.97% (-1.45%) / 276,304 votes (+41,005) / NO
38.03% (+1.45%) / 169,596 votes (+33,898) / YES


In the capital, though, things look very different, as "Yes" makes a gain of nearly 3% in the margin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Merced finally flipped to Yes

Boooo. Riverside just flipped to yes

Yes  339,496  50.04   (+0.57)
No   339,020  49.96    (-0.57)


30k VBM + 5k provisionals left to count

Dems in disarray! The California GOP returns from the dead!

[_.]

San Bernardino County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since yesterday's update)

50.2803% (+0.0044%) / 279,015 votes (+26,667) / NO
49.7197% (-0.0044%) / 275,904 votes (+26,326) / YES


Oh, wow, this is coming down to the wire, isn't it?

[Kamala's side hoe]

L.A. county updates this evening, likely with a big pro-R batch of votes given what we saw elsewhere in SoCal yesterday.  L.A. probably falls below 70% No when this is all said and done, which would be a notbable underperformance vs. Newsom 2018/Biden 2020. 

>95% of estimated votes currently in, Yes is leading 70.7%-29.3% per NYT (as Abdullah posted).

[Greedo punched first]

Will CA-48 flip to no?

[Devils30]

This just wasn't a terribly impressive showing for Rs, there's no way around it. Even the rural places they improved in like Fresno, Merced, Stanislaus had fewer voters than 2018 while Orange had more. A lot of the GOP Hispanic improvement on the edges is just off-year turnout differences common to Cali elections.

[Oryxslayer]

This just wasn't a terribly impressive showing for Rs, there's no way around it. Even the rural places they improved in like Fresno, Merced, Stanislaus had fewer voters than 2018 while Orange had more. A lot of the GOP Hispanic improvement on the edges is just off-year turnout differences common to Cali elections.

yeah this is what we need to remember. If there's a reason OC voted to the left of the Inland Empire it was because the latter's Dem base is almost entirely Hispanic, so poor turnout like in the valley flips counties and sometimes districts without flipping voters.

[_.]

Riverside County Update

(Numbers in parentheses represent changes since yesterday's update)

50.36% (+0.31%) / 350,999 votes (+11,503) / YES
49.64% (-0.31%) / 346,011 votes (+6,991) / NO

This just wasn't a terribly impressive showing for Rs, there's no way around it. Even the rural places they improved in like Fresno, Merced, Stanislaus had fewer voters than 2018 while Orange had more. A lot of the GOP Hispanic improvement on the edges is just off-year turnout differences common to Cali elections.

yeah this is what we need to remember. If there's a reason OC voted to the left of the Inland Empire it was because the latter's Dem base is almost entirely Hispanic, so poor turnout like in the valley flips districts without flipping voters.

I'd argue it mainly has to do with the presence of East and Southeast Asians in Orange County, specifically the Vietnamese. Without which the margins may look different.

[Pericles]

Any data on the margins by congressional district? That might be the only useful information to come from this huge waste of time and money.

[S019]

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

Wait where did you get this CD data, I've been looking for it everywhere.

[Greedo punched first]

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

Wait where did you get this CD data, I've been looking for it everywhere.

From Wikipedia. This map shows that Cox won CA-39 and CA-45 in 2018.

[S019]

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

Wait where did you get this CD data, I've been looking for it everywhere.

From Wikipedia. This map shows that Cox won CA-39 and CA-45 in 2018.

No I mean the evidence that CA-39 voted No, I can't find LA and Riverside numbers for that district

[Greedo punched first]

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

Wait where did you get this CD data, I've been looking for it everywhere.

From Wikipedia. This map shows that Cox won CA-39 and CA-45 in 2018.

No I mean the evidence that CA-39 voted No, I can't find LA and Riverside numbers for that district

CA-39 doesn't cover Riverside County.

[S019]

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

Wait where did you get this CD data, I've been looking for it everywhere.

From Wikipedia. This map shows that Cox won CA-39 and CA-45 in 2018.

No I mean the evidence that CA-39 voted No, I can't find LA and Riverside numbers for that district

CA-39 doesn't cover Riverside County.

I mean San Bernardino, I thought Chino Hills was in Riverside for some reason.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Any data on the margins by congressional district? That might be the only useful information to come from this huge waste of time and money.

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

Wait where did you get this CD data, I've been looking for it everywhere.

To answer both questions, Orange County seems to be one of the few CA counties that tend to release districtwide votes with each update. That's why there's totals out for the OC House districts.

For every other country, you're gonna have to wait until they finish & release their statement of votes or when the state releases the supplemental.


As an aside, I'm jealous of how great the Orange County Registrar of Voters site is in terms of data & information. In contrast, Riverside & San Bernardino's provide the bare minimum with web design that looks to have been untouched since 2008

[DINGO Joe]

Any data on the margins by congressional district? That might be the only useful information to come from this huge waste of time and money.

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

Wait where did you get this CD data, I've been looking for it everywhere.

To answer both questions, Orange County seems to be one of the few CA counties that tend to release districtwide votes with each update. That's why there's totals out for the OC House districts.

For every other country, you're gonna have to wait until they finish & release their statement of votes or when the state releases the supplemental.


As an aside, I'm jealous of how great the Orange County Registrar of Voters site is in terms of data & information. In contrast, Riverside & San Bernardino's provide the bare minimum with web design that looks to have been untouched since 2008

It's like not even having to leave home (Atlas)

[Sbane]

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

Wait where did you get this CD data, I've been looking for it everywhere.

From Wikipedia. This map shows that Cox won CA-39 and CA-45 in 2018.

No I mean the evidence that CA-39 voted No, I can't find LA and Riverside numbers for that district

While I don't have precise numbers out of CA-39's LA County portion, there is precinct data that shows No carried every single precinct in Diamond Bar, Rowland Heights, Hacienda Heights and Walnut. It is safe to say this will flip the district to no considering the small lead for yes out of Orange County. Not to mention Chino Hills is very similar to these aforementioned cities and I would argue is more similar to these cities than anywhere else in San Bernardino County.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/newsom-recall-election-results-southern-california-analysis/