CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[PSOL]

WOW! Gavin celebrating his victory in the recall by signing a bill that will effectively abolish single-family zoning in California. Thank you SIR!

https://twitter.com/hknightsf/status/1438638420889276422

BIG MANDATE ENERGY!

Next stop soviet apartment blocks!

Please god, I need to move out of my current crapper

[Adam Griffin]

CASOS said there were 2.9 million ballots left to be counted (as of a few hours ago). Looks like we're on track for ~12.5m ballots.

[NOVA Green]

CASOS said there were 2.9 million ballots left to be counted (as of a few hours ago). Looks like we're on track for ~12.5m ballots.

IMHO CA SoS numbers need to be carefully vetted vs county #s, since have experienced database upload differential numbers in Cali vs County in the past....

Obviously certain counties are much easier to quantify, but I've seen multiple times Large Counties such as Alameda and Los Angeles had issues where the estimated vote out numbers ended up being a false metric....

Always tend to be cautious on Cali, especially with the "estimated total remaining column on the report.

[wbrocks67]

CASOS said there were 2.9 million ballots left to be counted (as of a few hours ago). Looks like we're on track for ~12.5m ballots.

Which is pretty incredible since thats 2018 midterm levels. So much for Dems being asleep at the wheel in a Biden midterm.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

WOW! Gavin celebrating his victory in the recall by signing a bill that will effectively abolish single-family zoning in California. Thank you SIR!

https://twitter.com/hknightsf/status/1438638420889276422

BIG MANDATE ENERGY!

Next stop soviet apartment blocks!

This is deregulation, so no.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1438935966803062784?s=20

Only the most demographically concentrated areas are highlighted and analyzed, but you can see the overflow in surrounding precincts not dominated by one group.

[President Johnson]

Will Orange County stay in the No column? The margin somewhat decreased after the latest update.

[Skill and Chance]

Will Orange County stay in the No column? The margin somewhat decreased after the latest update.

If "all in person votes now counted" is accurate, it almost surely will stay a No county.

[Gass3268]

Will Orange County stay in the No column? The margin somewhat decreased after the latest update.

If "all in person votes now counted" is accurate, it almost surely will stay a No county.

Ballots have until the end of the day to come in if they were postdated on Tuesday, but I can't imagine that would be a whole lot. Yes would have to win ~60% of the remaining vote to flip the county.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

WOW! Gavin celebrating his victory in the recall by signing a bill that will effectively abolish single-family zoning in California. Thank you SIR!

https://twitter.com/hknightsf/status/1438638420889276422

BIG MANDATE ENERGY!

Next stop soviet apartment blocks!

Here's hoping!

[Matty]

Regarding OC

If newsom significantly overperformed Biden in ethnic areas, and “No” is winning the county by 4-5, where did he underperform Biden?

South OC?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1438935966803062784?s=20

Only the most demographically concentrated areas are highlighted and analyzed, but you can see the overflow in surrounding precincts not dominated by one group.

What do they attribute this to?  Increased racism after the election due to covid?

[Oryxslayer]

Regarding OC

If newsom significantly overperformed Biden in ethnic areas, and “No” is winning the county by 4-5, where did he underperform Biden?

South OC?

Turnout discrepancies. Newsom's doing much better in minority towns but those towns have a lower % of the vote. The white areas are therefore a higher percentage. The trend in these are even or slightly backwards from 2020. But the bigger impact is that the white towns have a lower starting Democratic baseline, so increasing their relative turnout drops the overall topline.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1438954559465009156?s=20

[Matty]

Sorry for asking again, but is there a Twitter user who has put up the city by city vote totals yet?

[Oryxslayer]

Sorry for asking again, but is there a Twitter user who has put up the city by city vote totals yet?

Here you go, but these are a day or two old so don't have those added votes calculated.

[Roll Roons]

Just wondering, what was the result in Beverly Hills?

[S019]

Has anyone calculated the results by congressional district yet?

[Non Swing Voter]

Has anyone calculated the results by congressional district yet?

Seems like a lot of work for numbers that are just going to get updated soon.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

CASOS said there were 2.9 million ballots left to be counted (as of a few hours ago). Looks like we're on track for ~12.5m ballots.

Which is pretty incredible since thats 2018 midterm levels. So much for Dems being asleep at the wheel in a Biden midterm.

The #resistance will still be strong in 2022.

[Devils30]

The CA numbers are very good for Dems, not Biden's 29% but final number will probably only be 2-3% off and better than Newsom's 2018.

The drop from 2020 also has everything to do with normal Cali midterm turnout patterns and little to nothing with Latino slippage. Newsom lost Fresno and Stanislaus in 2018 despite Clinton winning in 2016. Dems always do worse in midterms compared to presidentials in CA, even during Trump era. Newsom also only won Orange by 0.2 last time...3-4% this time most likely.

[Matty]

For my own sanity, I need the VA race to be close in order to get y’all off your belief that the dems will
Keep the house

[DrScholl]

I think the era of Trump has ended the days of Democrats not being able to turn out their voters. It's no longer a challenge to convey to low propensity voters what is at stake because we are basically in a non-stop political cycle.

[Matty]

I think the era of Trump has ended the days of Democrats not being able to turn out their voters. It's no longer a challenge to convey to low propensity voters what is at stake because we are basically in a non-stop political cycle.

Hopefully the ending of mailing of ballots in most states will end that

[DrScholl]

I think the era of Trump has ended the days of Democrats not being able to turn out their voters. It's no longer a challenge to convey to low propensity voters what is at stake because we are basically in a non-stop political cycle.

Hopefully the ending of mailing of ballots in most states will end that

Why is it that you have to rely on fewer people having the opportunity to vote for Republicans to win? If your party is down to that strategy then that means that they shouldn't be in control because clearly they are not what the majority of the voters want in many places.

[Skill and Chance]

Riverside is almost surely going to flip now.