CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Matty]

Man am I going to be glad when the mailing of ballots ends
 
Lol

[Gass3268]

Lassen is at 82% Yes

[Alben Barkley]

Imagine trying to claim voter fraud cost you the election when you lose by 20-30 points hahahahahahaha

[Pollster]

Polls nailed it.

[Person Man]

Orange County is at 58% No?

[Horus]

What’s gonna be real telling is how this compares to Biden in 2020 and 2018.

That’s what’s concerning to me.

The mail Ins line up exactly with the final results from 2020 general.

So the result is likely to be 5-7% better for the GOP than 2020 general.

That kind of swing would be deadly for the Dems in the midterms

Dude no

This is an off year election

The candidates, for all intents and purposes are "yes" and "no"

California has atypical demographics

This means nothing

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Newsom only doing two points better among Latino voters than white voters. Black voters are at 19% yes.

That's pretty good for the GOP.

Not that surprising tbh. Federal D voter at all levels =/= pro-Newsom

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

OVERALL: 70-30


Jesus Christ

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Man am I going to be glad when the mailing of ballots ends
 
Lol

"Ugh, people voting, right?!" - you

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What’s gonna be real telling is how this compares to Biden in 2020 and 2018.

That’s what’s concerning to me.

The mail Ins line up exactly with the final results from 2020 general.

So the result is likely to be 5-7% better for the GOP than 2020 general.

That kind of swing would be deadly for the Dems in the midterms

Yes and no, it’s hard to draw a 1-1 even though this is obviously partisan, there’s only republicans and democrats, no third party. The democratic side isn’t moving. It’s a mixed bag

[Oryxslayer]

Also, Larry Elder is winning counties in both the Bay Area and Sacramento metro, so looks like he will sweep that map.


But the second ballot has 3.5 million votes less that the first, with 6 million total.

[Matty]

What was up with the exit polls?

[Horus]

Newsom only doing two points better among Latino voters than white voters. Black voters are at 19% yes.

That's pretty good for the GOP.

Not that surprising tbh. Federal D voter at all levels =/= pro-Newsom

Of course but just something to look out for in the future. The plus side is minorities trending R while suburban whites trend D is a big help for redistricting.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Everything thus far looks like a pretty decisive rejection of the recall effort.

[fluffypanther19]

this isnt even remotely close. jeez, what a waste of time

[Lourdes]

"No" is leading in Inyo County 53-47.

[Continential]

It is hilarious seeing some rando named Brandon Ross get 6% in the recall replacement.

[Holmes]

My county of Solano at 69% yes to recall? Nice.

lol

[NOVA Green]

Orange County is at 58% No?

Must be a wave of conservative same day Conservative Asian-Americans and Latinos votes still to be counted....

[MillennialModerate]

Wtf happened in Santa Clara

[Sestak]

YES AT 70% in SOLANO COUNTY. THE RECALL LIVES AGAIN.



I love input errors

[politicallefty]

Placer County at 51.6% No. Lmao.

[swf541]

Wtf happened in Santa Clara

MSNBC seems to think its an error

[Non Swing Voter]

this still on track to be prescient?

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

• Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
• He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
• Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
• The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
• The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.

 

[Alben Barkley]

There is literally a higher chance that "No" wins by more than Biden did than that "Yes" wins.

Yet the networks always instacall CA on presidential election nights including last year.