CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[BoiseBoy]

Final, final prediction. I'm not at all certain about this, especially with counties such as Lake, San Joaquin, Merced, and San Bernadino, but I am certain that the recall will fail by double digits, most likely over 14-15 points right now.

[BoiseBoy]

Posting crap like this will NOT help Republican turnout. These people are incredibly stupid.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/wayne-root-larry-elder-will-win-california-recall-electionbut-will-lose-rigged-election-just-like-trump/

[DaleCooper]

Posting crap like this will NOT help Republican turnout. These people are incredibly stupid.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/wayne-root-larry-elder-will-win-california-recall-electionbut-will-lose-rigged-election-just-like-trump/

"Your vote doesn't count!"

What a horrible way to speak to your voters.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned: 7,916,876
Dems 4,143,960 (52.3%)
Reps 1,981,634 (25.0%)
Ind/Other 1,791,282 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (40%), Reps (37%), Ind/Other (27%)

----

Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +27.3.

[TodayJunior]

Republicans will be lucky to break 40%. Their problem isn't enthusiasm, it's just stone cold math. I could be wrong here, but I surmise that the numbers are just not there mainly bc the people who have left CA are mostly Republicans who went to other states, whereas back in 2003 they still had enough of them and win enough Indy's to win statewide.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Total ballots returned: 7,916,876
Dems 4,143,960 (52.3%)
Reps 1,981,634 (25.0%)
Ind/Other 1,791,282 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (40%), Reps (37%), Ind/Other (27%)

----

Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +27.3.

Thanks for continuing to post these updates!

For reference, there were about 12.7 million ballots cast in the 2018 gubernatorial election and 17.5 million in the 2020 presidential election.

[kwabbit]

I'm interested to see how disproportionately Republican election day/in person voting is. I'd imagine the gap might be even more wide than the 2020 election, given the stop the steal/ VDM is illegitimate rhetoric obviously peaked after Trump's defeat. I'm thinking No +16 at this point, I think polls will again underestimate Republican performance as they become even more disconnected from traditional media sources.

Even though the recall is doomed to fail and evolved into a Larry Elder lead circus, at least it gave us election junkies something to focus on in 2021 lol.

[Minnesota Mike]

Total ballots returned: 7,916,876
Dems 4,143,960 (52.3%)
Reps 1,981,634 (25.0%)
Ind/Other 1,791,282 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (40%), Reps (37%), Ind/Other (27%)

----

Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +27.3.

Thanks for continuing to post these updates!

For reference, there were about 12.7 million ballots cast in the 2018 gubernatorial election and 17.5 million in the 2020 presidential election.

My guess is we end up with a total turnout of between 11-12 Mil which is on the high end of what I thought when this whole thing started. Without local/legislative races on the ballot it would be no surprise if turnout is just below the 2018 elections.

[Greedo punched first]

Do any John Cox 2018 districts vote no on recall?

2018 gubernatorial results:
Newsom
Cox

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm interested to see how disproportionately Republican election day/in person voting is. I'd imagine the gap might be even more wide than the 2020 election, given the stop the steal/ VDM is illegitimate rhetoric obviously peaked after Trump's defeat. I'm thinking No +16 at this point, I think polls will again underestimate Republican performance as they become even more disconnected from traditional media sources.

Except there's no history of polls underestimating Republicans in California. Quite the opposite actually.

[Greedo punched first]

Does CA-25 vote yes or no?

[Pink Panther]

Posting crap like this will NOT help Republican turnout. These people are incredibly stupid.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/wayne-root-larry-elder-will-win-california-recall-electionbut-will-lose-rigged-election-just-like-trump/

"Your vote doesn't count!"

What a horrible way to speak to your voters.

I wonder how close the CAGOP could have made this race. An outright victory would have been unlikely regardless, and the CAGOP are infamous for being incompetent, but I feel they could have done a much better job during this campaign, and get a morale victory for 2022, but this didn't happen. Will the CAGOP learn anything from this?

[wbrocks67]

I'm interested to see how disproportionately Republican election day/in person voting is. I'd imagine the gap might be even more wide than the 2020 election, given the stop the steal/ VDM is illegitimate rhetoric obviously peaked after Trump's defeat. I'm thinking No +16 at this point, I think polls will again underestimate Republican performance as they become even more disconnected from traditional media sources.

Even though the recall is doomed to fail and evolved into a Larry Elder lead circus, at least it gave us election junkies something to focus on in 2021 lol.

CA polls actually nailed the margin in 2020. 538 average was Biden +29 which is exactly what it was

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/california/

[Хahar 🤔]

4. Who enters/drops out of the 2022 gubernatorial race in the next few months

On this note, I recall a post I made in April. (That post, by the way, is entirely correct in all its parts, even though I've quoted only a portion here.)

In one sense it doesn't matter since this seems right now like an unwinnable race, but a poor performance for Faulconer this year would make it difficult for him to present himself as a credible candidate for 2022. California Republicans are perpetually in trouble (hence their reliance on self-funders), and having two gubernatorial elections in two years will certainly stretch them thin. If Republicans are all focused on this year, it's hard to say who'll be left for next year. My dark horse prediction is that the 2022 general election will pit Gavin Newsom against Chamath Palihapitiya.

Faulconer has in fact performed incredibly poorly (we don't need to see the actual results of the election to see that) and I can't see now how he'll be a credible candidate next year. Who exactly is going to give him money? Larry Elder 2.0 is definitely a possibility now, particularly since he's preemptively declaring himself the real winner of this election because of voter fraud. John Cox could still run again, since he apparently has an infinite supply of money to throw at his vanity runs for office; if no other opposition candidate with money steps up (Republican or otherwise), it's not out of the realm of possibility that he makes it to the general election again.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned: 7,916,876
Dems 4,143,960 (52.3%)
Reps 1,981,634 (25.0%)
Ind/Other 1,791,282 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (40%), Reps (37%), Ind/Other (27%)

Total ballots returned = 8,354,033
Dems 4,354,719 (52.1%)
Reps 2,108,229 (25.2%)
Ind/Other 1,891,085 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (42%), Reps (39%), Ind/Other (29%)

Dems are now +26.9 leading into Election Day. 2020 was +26.5.

[kwabbit]

I'm interested to see how disproportionately Republican election day/in person voting is. I'd imagine the gap might be even more wide than the 2020 election, given the stop the steal/ VDM is illegitimate rhetoric obviously peaked after Trump's defeat. I'm thinking No +16 at this point, I think polls will again underestimate Republican performance as they become even more disconnected from traditional media sources.

Except there's no history of polls underestimating Republicans in California. Quite the opposite actually.

That is true, I’m not expecting a big miss, just about a 1.5 or so in the Yes direction. I think it’s notable that 2020 was the first election where Democrats weren’t underestimated in California, most likely because of changing coalitions. As the GOP loses its traditional suburban educated White base, it will become less overestimated and as the Dems pick up those voters and shed Hispanic voters they will less underestimated. Trends from 2020 seem to have carried over into the recall, with Hispanic voters being more likely to support it (of course with a lot of variation across polling but on average) than their 2020 vote would imply. I think this creates the potential for Yes to be slightly underestimated by polling.

Of course I could be full of crap and No wins by 25 which is also a definite possibility. Just making the case in the opposite direction.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Posting crap like this will NOT help Republican turnout. These people are incredibly stupid.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/wayne-root-larry-elder-will-win-california-recall-electionbut-will-lose-rigged-election-just-like-trump/

"Your vote doesn't count!"

What a horrible way to speak to your voters.

I wonder how close the CAGOP could have made this race. An outright victory would have been unlikely regardless, and the CAGOP are infamous for being incompetent, but I feel they could have done a much better job during this campaign, and get a morale victory for 2022, but this didn't happen. Will the CAGOP learn anything from this?

I really hope this recall puts to bed the takes of "The CA GOP aren't a terrible state party, CA is just so blue".

No, the CA GOP are a terrible & incompetent state party. They've somehow gotten even more out-of-touch & crazier with this recall than without it. I kinda expected it, but even I'm surprised how much they fell off the deep end.

Even a single-digit result would've gave them tons of momentum statewide & nationally. Instead, Newsom may actually improve on his 2018 numbers for tomorrow & next year's races. I also wouldn't be surprised if he becomes more emboldened to advance even more progressive/liberal policies.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Posting crap like this will NOT help Republican turnout. These people are incredibly stupid.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/wayne-root-larry-elder-will-win-california-recall-electionbut-will-lose-rigged-election-just-like-trump/

"Your vote doesn't count!"

What a horrible way to speak to your voters.

I wonder how close the CAGOP could have made this race. An outright victory would have been unlikely regardless, and the CAGOP are infamous for being incompetent, but I feel they could have done a much better job during this campaign, and get a morale victory for 2022, but this didn't happen. Will the CAGOP learn anything from this?

I really hope this recall puts to bed the take of "The CA GOP aren't a terrible state party, CA is just so blue".

No, the CA GOP are a terrible & incompetent state party. They've somehow gotten even more out-of-touch & crazier with this recall than without.

Perhaps them picking up those four House districts made them cocky.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Perhaps them picking up those four House districts made them cocky.

And recalling State Sen. Josh Newman in the 2018 primaries (Though he won the seat back last November)

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1437547264705183749?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

Do Republicans believe that any election they lose is by definition fraudulent?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Do Republicans believe that any election they lose is by definition fraudulent?

The more Trumpian ones, I think so at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

Do Republicans believe that any election they lose is by definition fraudulent?

They don't believe that Democrats are full citizens, so yes, by definition.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1437547264705183749?s=20

So Elder is preemptively declaring voter fraud before all the ballots are collected and counted.  

Are Republicans just super advanced and know of the fraud before it happens or is Elder just a stoogie of the Big Lie seeking to push a conspiracy theory?

[Thunder98]

The Counties to watch tomorrow night:

Los Angeles County: Minority and White Dem turnout
Orange County: Suburban voters
Imperial County: Hispanic Turnout
Santa Clara County: Newsom's home region advantage
Kern County: Hispanic and GOP turnout
Santa Barbara County: Statewide Bellwether
Shasta County: GOP turnout
Yolo County: College voter turnout
San Francisco: Newsom's home turf
Nevada County: Ski Resorts