CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

I think we’ll see about 13-14 million ballots being returned.

That’s 60-65% of the 22 million RV.

2003 had about 62% participation.

1 million returns so far doesn’t mean much and comparisons to 2020 shouldn’t be taken, because returns will drop off at some point in 1 or 2 weeks compared to 2020.

My guess:

53.6% Remain in office
46.4% Recall him

That would be a bigger turnout than the 2018 midterm (12.5 mill). Maybe with the fact everyone was mailed a ballot but my guess is somewhere between 10-12 mill. The bigger the turnout the better for Newsom, the only way he is recalled is if Democratic turnout craters.

[wbrocks67]

Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

Update for the next page

Total ballots returned = 1,076,724
Dems 604,981 (56.2%)
Reps 236,038 (21.9%)
Ind/Other 236,002 (21.9%)

[Not Me, Us]

How did Elder become the main Republican in this race? Faulconer is a much more impressive candidate imo.

[Donerail]

How did Elder become the main Republican in this race? Faulconer is a much more impressive candidate imo.

so was john kasich or whoever, and yet

[DrScholl]

Outside of San Diego no one really knows who Faulconer is. Elder has been on the radio for years and California Republicans have always listened to a lot of radio. Plus there is that fact that Republicans tend to prefer more inexperienced and celebrity candidates nowadays.

[Storr]

How did Elder become the main Republican in this race? Faulconer is a much more impressive candidate imo.

so was john kasich or whoever, and yet

California Republicans aren't coalescing around a candidate that could actually win because the effort to impeach him was started and organized by mad wing nuts on the internet. Choosing a controversial talk radio host makes as your main opponent to Newsom make sense in that context.

Edit: DrScholl also makes a good point about Elder being well known among Republicans across the state due to being on radio. It makes sense California has a history of electing celebrities since its hard to become well known across such a large and diverse state. Texas is different since >75% of the population lives in the eastern third of the state.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Faulconer doesn't really energize the base in the same manner as Elder. Plus California is a very democratic state so my guess is most moderate suburban Republicans who would have been propelling Faulconer to first place had this been in the 2000s have already switched to the Democrats.

[President Johnson]

Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

Update for the next page

Total ballots returned = 1,076,724
Dems 604,981 (56.2%)
Reps 236,038 (21.9%)
Ind/Other 236,002 (21.9%)

Is this good or bad that the Democratic share decreases with each update? From which areas are these votes coming in? I guess the total number is still way, way too small for any estimation how this might go. I still struggle to see how Newsom loses, though the polls aren't that great.

[wbrocks67]

Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

Update for the next page

Total ballots returned = 1,076,724
Dems 604,981 (56.2%)
Reps 236,038 (21.9%)
Ind/Other 236,002 (21.9%)

Is this good or bad that the Democratic share decreases with each update? From which areas are these votes coming in? I guess the total number is still way, way too small for any estimation how this might go. I still struggle to see how Newsom loses, though the polls aren't that great.

Map:

https://twitter.com/Political_Data/status/1430005403421605894

[Хahar 🤔]

Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

Update for the next page

Total ballots returned = 1,076,724
Dems 604,981 (56.2%)
Reps 236,038 (21.9%)
Ind/Other 236,002 (21.9%)

Is this good or bad that the Democratic share decreases with each update? From which areas are these votes coming in? I guess the total number is still way, way too small for any estimation how this might go. I still struggle to see how Newsom loses, though the polls aren't that great.

These numbers don't indicate anything at all, and trying to get anything from them at this point amounts to haruspicy. Don't worry about it.

[Tintrlvr]

Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

Update for the next page

Total ballots returned = 1,076,724
Dems 604,981 (56.2%)
Reps 236,038 (21.9%)
Ind/Other 236,002 (21.9%)

Is this good or bad that the Democratic share decreases with each update? From which areas are these votes coming in? I guess the total number is still way, way too small for any estimation how this might go. I still struggle to see how Newsom loses, though the polls aren't that great.

Don't think we can say without comparisons to previous elections' trajectories in ballot returns, and even then it would be challenging to comment much.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

Update for the next page

Total ballots returned = 1,076,724
Dems 604,981 (56.2%)
Reps 236,038 (21.9%)
Ind/Other 236,002 (21.9%)

Is this good or bad that the Democratic share decreases with each update? From which areas are these votes coming in? I guess the total number is still way, way too small for any estimation how this might go. I still struggle to see how Newsom loses, though the polls aren't that great.

To be fair, the GOP share also decreases with each update.

And also to be fair, we've had like 2 updates.

[I’m not Stu]

Does Newsom survive, or do enough Democrats vote to recall?

[MT Treasurer]

That recall tracker is really neat, thanks for sharing. Does anyone have a link to an interactive county/precinct map that’s updated daily? (preferably that one)

[wbrocks67]

That recall tracker is really neat, thanks for sharing. Does anyone have a link to an interactive county/precinct map that’s updated daily? (preferably that one)

PoliticalData.com had a thing where you could sign up to get all the info in that tweet sent to your email every day, not sure if it's still up though. I signed up before though, I can share whenever I get it each day

[Girlytree]

Snowy is right newsom gonna be recalled replaced by AA Elder AAs against recall Latino trends going R

New Jersey Virginia Safe D
https://mobile.twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1430287761710493696
She retweeted this
https://mobile.twitter.com/michaeljknowles/status/1429867477861867522

[Minnesota Mike]

Absentee ballot retutun update.


https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-ballot-returns-top-25-searches/

Total ballots returned = 1,556,736*
Dems 884,638 (56.8%)
Reps 332,097 (21.3%)
Ind/Other 340,378 (21.9%)

* total does not quite equal Dems+ Rep + other. Off by 377 voters.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Images of the latest update.

[wbrocks67]

It appears so far that Dems have woken up.

Anything can happen here but would not be surprised if polls end up totally screwing up the LV screen.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Former CA Senate Majority Leader Gloria Romero (D) endorses Elder.

"Yes, I'm a Democrat. But the recall of Newsom is not about political party. It’s about Newsom. Larry Elder for governor."

https://drive.google.com/file/d/14lGYWA-HVg1pNhLLnEoxAWCHdUMwc4Bf/view

The recall is as much about political party as the olympics are about sports and nationalism

[Young Conservative]

It appears so far that Dems have woken up.

Anything can happen here but would not be surprised if polls end up totally screwing up the LV screen.

Right now partisanship is pretty much mirroring 2020 turnout. I expect GOP voters will turnout more early and in person than VBM

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Is it just me or does it seem odd that we haven’t had any new polls for what… almost two weeks?

[President Johnson]

What's the deal with Elder? The guy doesn't have any real qualifications for the job and reading his political positions on Wikipedia page tells me that he's a far-right nutjob. He'd not represent a majority of Californians.

[SnowLabrador]

What's the deal with Elder? The guy doesn't have any real qualifications for the job and reading his political positions on Wikipedia page tells me that he's a far-right nutjob. He'd not represent a majority of Californians.

Elder's counting on Democrats being complacent and/or thinking that recalling Newsom means they get a different Democrat.

[Girlytree]

What's the deal with Elder? The guy doesn't have any real qualifications for the job and reading his political positions on Wikipedia page tells me that he's a far-right nutjob. He'd not represent a majority of Californians.

If not for him and Dennis Prager, we might not have had South Park.

https://mobile.twitter.com/larryelder/status/977368935795273728