CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Mike Thick]

This shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been watching him for the past six months or so. Or longer, for that matter

[Sir Mohamed]

The CA GOP is dead as the dodo in statewide races for the foreseeable future. Faulconer would have been a good candidate 10-15 years ago, and still is compared to their bench, but he's not going anywhere.

And I doubt waiting to 2026 would change much for the better. By then, he'll be out of office for too long to be any news.

[Young Conservative]

The CA GOP is dead as the dodo in statewide races for the foreseeable future. Faulconer would have been a good candidate 10-15 years ago, and still is compared to their bench, but he's not going anywhere.

And I doubt waiting to 2026 would change much for the better. By then, he'll be out of office for too long to be any news.

A strong run by Faulconer, a socially liberal and climate conscious republican, would help the GOP brand though and potentially help some congress and state legislative candidates.

[JMT]

I feel like Faulconer doesn't really have anything to lose by running in 2022. He definitely will not win, but he was term limited as Mayor and probably can't win any statewide office anyway, so he might as well go for Governor. Even though he won't win, the GOP would have a strong candidate at the top of the ticket, which could help Republicans down ballot.

[Sir Mohamed]

The CA GOP is dead as the dodo in statewide races for the foreseeable future. Faulconer would have been a good candidate 10-15 years ago, and still is compared to their bench, but he's not going anywhere.

And I doubt waiting to 2026 would change much for the better. By then, he'll be out of office for too long to be any news.

A strong run by Faulconer, a socially liberal and climate conscious republican, would help the GOP brand though and potentially help some congress and state legislative candidates.

I think it depends where the national party goes after Trump, which I'm not too optimistic about. The electorate has changed and became more partisan.

Btw, Arnold's decisive win in 2006, when the electorate was less polarized and the CA GOP in better shape, didn't help other candidates much either.

[Young Conservative]

The CA GOP is dead as the dodo in statewide races for the foreseeable future. Faulconer would have been a good candidate 10-15 years ago, and still is compared to their bench, but he's not going anywhere.

And I doubt waiting to 2026 would change much for the better. By then, he'll be out of office for too long to be any news.

A strong run by Faulconer, a socially liberal and climate conscious republican, would help the GOP brand though and potentially help some congress and state legislative candidates.

I think it depends where the national party goes after Trump, which I'm not too optimistic about. The electorate has changed and became more partisan.

Btw, Arnold's decisive win in 2006, when the electorate was less polarized and the CA GOP in better shape, didn't help other candidates much either.

2006 was a very different environment than 2022 will be.

[One Term Floridian]

Faulconer is the only CA GOPer with a snowball’s chance of winning. With Nuisance Newsome running the state’s tourism industry to the ground and running for re-election in a Biden midterm, I will be changing CA Gov to Likely D if Faulconer runs and wins the nomination

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

To the people saying he couldn’t win statewide, the San Diego based seat of the Board of Equalizers was held by a Republican as recently as 2018

[Mike Thick]

To the people saying he couldn’t win statewide, the San Diego based seat of the Board of Equalizers was held by a Republican as recently as 2018

This seat is much less Democratic than California as a whole, and was even more Republican pre-Trump

[SevenEleven]

The CA GOP is dead as the dodo in statewide races for the foreseeable future. Faulconer would have been a good candidate 10-15 years ago, and still is compared to their bench, but he's not going anywhere.

And I doubt waiting to 2026 would change much for the better. By then, he'll be out of office for too long to be any news.

A strong run by Faulconer, a socially liberal and climate conscious republican, would help the GOP brand though and potentially help some congress and state legislative candidates.

I think it depends where the national party goes after Trump, which I'm not too optimistic about. The electorate has changed and became more partisan.

Btw, Arnold's decisive win in 2006, when the electorate was less polarized and the CA GOP in better shape, didn't help other candidates much either.

2006 was a very different environment than 2022 will be.

Yep, CA will elect more Democrats in 2022 than they did in 2006.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

To the people saying he couldn’t win statewide, the San Diego based seat of the Board of Equalizers was held by a Republican as recently as 2018

This seat is much less Democratic than California as a whole, and was even more Republican pre-Trump

Yea, I’m not saying that one seat is a showing they can win statewide, just pointing out the man has options after leaving office

[Galeel]

Realistically this is safe D but he's probably the best candidate Republicans can hope for.

[AndyHogan14]

I wouldn't be opposed to voting against Newsom as long as I was assured that Democrats would retain their supermajorities in the legislature (which is likely). I'll probably vote for Newsom in the end, but for state races I am, at least, persuadable.

[Woody]

I always thought that Faulconer was the best guy the GOP could recruit. Picking up the governorship + Newsom getting his ass kicked here would be glorious.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I wouldn't be opposed to voting against Newsom as long as I was assured that Democrats would retain their supermajorities in the legislature (which is likely). I'll probably vote for Newsom in the end, but for state races I am, at least, persuadable.

I don't think that there are enough seats where republicans are even going to get a nominee in the top two to flip those supermajorities.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/11/19/gops-faulconer-seriously-considering-a-run-against-newsom-1337251
Looking like this'll be real

[Canis]

I called this years ago haha Newsoms facing a lot of flak rn cause of him attending a dinner party after tightening covid restrictions This starts out at Safe D but could move to likely I just don't see Falcourner getting 50% if he really overpreforms and D turnout is low he could get low-mid 40's but even then that's a bg stretch I wonder if any D's will hop in to challenge Newsom and if Faulcorner will be the only GOP opponent

[Roll Roons]

I've heard people compare Newsom's dinner party to the infamous picture of Chris Christie on the beach during a state government shutdown.

[S019]

I've heard people compare Newsom's dinner party to the infamous picture of Chris Christie on the beach during a state government shutdown.

Difference is that Newsom is not in a very hostile state for his party. If he loses re-election, we're probably talking about a wave worse than 2010, and maybe even worse than 1994

[Donerail]

Faulconer could do very well if the election was tomorrow but I just don't think people will hold onto their anger after we get a vaccine. His "best" shot here is probably to gather 1.5 million signatures during a pandemic. Good luck to him.

[Roll Roons]

I've heard people compare Newsom's dinner party to the infamous picture of Chris Christie on the beach during a state government shutdown.

Difference is that Newsom is not in a very hostile state for his party. If he loses re-election, we're probably talking about a wave worse than 2010, and maybe even worse than 1994

I know. Just thought it was a kind of funny (and accurate) comparison.

[KaiserDave]

I mean I don’t like Newsom but he’s obviously going to win by +15

[Mike Thick]

People will forget about this specific incident. The perception is what will stick, particularly if Newsom does more dumb stuff

[lfromnj]

Honestly the moderate parts of the CA GOP are just full of idiots who act moderate on the wrong issues. Prop 16 was given to them in the legislature some moderate idiot hero Republicans decided to support it like Scott Wilk, who is barely winning in his Clinton +3 district similar to Garcia's but with a bit more GOP areas. There was no chance Prop 16 would have passed in a Clinton +3 district yet the idiot supported it instead of campaigning against it. The proposition might have failed at nearly  70% in his district. Like I expected it to pass statewide by 8-10 points( I was laughably wrong here) but no way it would have passed in his district. Why not actually campaign against the Democrats when they obviously went too far?

The CA GOP has to actually offer voters a choice and stop thinking being a moderate hero wins everywhere if its the wrong issue.



If Falcouner runs its still a Safe D race but he should try to campaign on a few conservative issues that are actually popular statewide. If Newsom keeps screwing up he could get relatively close like Edmondson in OK did and how OK 5th might have been won for D's in 2018. The mini downballot wave if this happens might just recede but at least it would rebuild a bench.

[Galeel]

Will Faulconer run as GOP or an independent?