CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Newsom is gonna handily defeat the recall and the map will look identical to the 2018 governors race (With the possible exception of San Bernardino & Merced flipping against him).

Schools & colleges are planning for 100% on-campus learning for the fall, music venues are announcing concerts & festivals on an hourly basis, theme parks & restaurants are packed, 2/3 of the state are vaccinated in some way, case/death rates are around record lows & the French Laundry already feels like ancient history. And we don't even know when the recall is taking place!

Honestly, if it wasn't for every news story blanketing every breath he makes as related to this, I doubt most Californians would even know what or why Newsom is facing a recall.

[Sir Mohamed]

Newsom is gonna handily defeat the recall and the map will look identical to the 2018 governors race (With the possible exception of San Bernardino & Merced flipping against him).

Schools & colleges are planning for 100% on-campus learning for the fall, music venues are announcing concerts & festivals on an hourly basis, theme parks & restaurants are packed, 2/3 of the state are vaccinated in some way, case/death rates are around record lows & the French Laundry already feels like ancient history. And we don't even know when the recall is taking place!

Honestly, if it wasn't for every news story blanketing every breath he makes as related to this, I doubt most Californians would even know what or why Newsom is facing a recall.

I agree. Perhaps Orange will also vote for the recall itsself. That said, Newsom will again win Orange and Bernardine counties in next year's regular election, which he will win with ease.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I agree. Perhaps Orange will also vote for the recall itsself. That said, Newsom will again win Orange and Bernardine counties in next year's regular election, which he will win with ease.

I guess I'll be "bold" and say that I don't see Orange voting for the recall. If they do, it'll be by like 1-2%.

[Donerail]

Gavin changed the rules in 2019 to list your political party next to your name if you're being recalled ("Should Gavin Newsom, Democrat, be recalled from office?"). Shrewd move, except he forgot to file the paperwork to take advantage of the law he created. Pending a state court ruling, he'll be listed as Gavin Newsom, no party preference.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gavin changed the rules in 2019 to list your political party next to your name if you're being recalled ("Should Gavin Newsom, Democrat, be recalled from office?"). Shrewd move, except he forgot to file the paperwork to take advantage of the law he created. Pending a state court ruling, he'll be listed as Gavin Newsom, no party preference.

That's like when his wife accidentally joined the American Independent party.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/steffdaz/status/1410709767366930433

[Suburbia]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

[AZDem]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

Why is Wendy Williams friends with known grifter and scammer Vicki Gunvalson (she ran a cancer scam with one of her old boyfriends that became a huge deal on and off the show)? Gunvalson's "fiance" (many think is was just for show when she was on the Real Housewives of Orange Country t have a storyline) fraudulently tried to run for city council in Anaheim by claiming he lived in the city when in fact he didn't. He also tried to claim he was Hispanic, which also isn't true.

CA recently reported a 75 billion dollar budget surplus. Yeah, Wendy, the CA economy is a "joke". Maybe she doesn't like CA. Guess you can't expect too much from trash like her.
 

[Minnesota Mike]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

I have no idea who these people are.


Why does every minor "celebrity" feel the need to run for Governor of California?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

Ah yes, the coveted Wendy Williams endorsement. Newsom has no chance now!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

California's economy is larger than the UK's. Such a joke

[Suburbia]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

Why is Wendy Williams friends with known grifter and scammer Vicki Gunvalson (she ran a cancer scam with one of her old boyfriends that became a huge deal on and off the show)? Gunvalson's "fiance" (many think is was just for show when she was on the Real Housewives of Orange Country t have a storyline) fraudulently tried to run for city council in Anaheim by claiming he lived in the city when in fact he didn't. He also tried to claim he was Hispanic, which also isn't true.

CA recently reported a 75 billion dollar budget surplus. Yeah, Wendy, the CA economy is a "joke". Maybe she doesn't like CA. Guess you can't expect too much from trash like her.
 

So Lodge is a fraud, I guess? Lodge is a former police officer and US military member.....

https://www.instagram.com/stevelodge_oc/

Vicki is a scammer too? Oh boy....She's not the only housewife on that franchise to be involved in shady business deals....

[Suburbia]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

I have no idea who these people are.


Why does every minor "celebrity" feel the need to run for Governor of California?

Because only celebrities can save the CAGOP. Wayne Gretzky should have ran as well. Celebrities can excite people to vote. Although there are a lot of people who don't like when celebrities endorse politicians, people don't follow politics, so the famous people have to run so people can know what is going on

[Holmes]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

Why is Wendy Williams friends with known grifter and scammer Vicki Gunvalson (she ran a cancer scam with one of her old boyfriends that became a huge deal on and off the show)? Gunvalson's "fiance" (many think is was just for show when she was on the Real Housewives of Orange Country t have a storyline) fraudulently tried to run for city council in Anaheim by claiming he lived in the city when in fact he didn't. He also tried to claim he was Hispanic, which also isn't true.

CA recently reported a 75 billion dollar budget surplus. Yeah, Wendy, the CA economy is a "joke". Maybe she doesn't like CA. Guess you can't expect too much from trash like her.
 

So Lodge is a fraud, I guess? Lodge is a former police officer and US military member.....

https://www.instagram.com/stevelodge_oc/

Vicki is a scammer too? Oh boy....She's not the only housewife on that franchise to be involved in shady business deals....

We don’t care about cops and military in California. This isn’t Long Island or whatever tf.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/steffdaz/status/1410709767366930433

Sept. 15th headlines: "Gavin Newsom wins California recall election"

[The Dowager Mod]

Still a clown.
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1410916638896107524

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/steffdaz/status/1410709767366930433

Sept. 15th headlines: "Gavin Newsom wins California recall election"

... and John Cox thinks he'll finally be elected gov in 2022.

[Calthrina950]

Still a clown.
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1410916638896107524

If Jenner were somehow the Republican gubernatorial nominee in the regularly scheduled election next year, she would lose by the same 60-40% margin that Republicans typically lose by in California nowadays.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Still a clown.
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1410916638896107524

So… send them to a farm upstate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The majority of these homeless people are on SSA or Disability as of now, Shelters are taking only certain people, some of these people got evicted from their hotels due to fact they didn't pay rent when they're supposed to, but we have Brushfires, and we are in a drought, whom really wants to be outside in this heat


Now, that shelters are shut down they have nowhere to go, but on the street in Covid

[President Johnson]

I still don't get what's the point to waste millions of dollars and call voters to the polls to recall a Democratic governor in a rocksolid blue state 14 months before the next regular election takes place anyway? Just because said governor could do more to tackle crisis like homelessness? Or is his crime to listen to science during a pandemic? Of course Newsom wasn't perfect, but no comparison to Florida man or Cuomo. And in a new situation like this, some errors inevitably happen.

Even in the extremely unlikely event the recall succeeds and a Republican replaces Newsom, he or she would face a state legislature with a Democratic supermajority and would stand zero chance to survive 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still don't get what's the point to waste millions of dollars and call voters to the polls to recall a Democratic governor in a rocksolid blue state 14 months before the next regular election takes place anyway? Just because said governor could do more to tackle crisis like homelessness? Or is his crime to listen to science during a pandemic? Of course Newsom wasn't perfect, but no comparison to Florida man or Cuomo. And in a new situation like this, some errors inevitably happen.

Even in the extremely unlikely event the recall succeeds and a Republican replaces Newsom, he or she would face a state legislature with a Democratic supermajority and would stand zero chance to survive 2022.

Newsom is only leading 50/44% in the Recall he isn't safe, we don't know the turnout and there are rich people in Orange that vote R

[Oryxslayer]

I still don't get what's the point to waste millions of dollars and call voters to the polls to recall a Democratic governor in a rocksolid blue state 14 months before the next regular election takes place anyway? Just because said governor could do more to tackle crisis like homelessness? Or is his crime to listen to science during a pandemic? Of course Newsom wasn't perfect, but no comparison to Florida man or Cuomo. And in a new situation like this, some errors inevitably happen.

Even in the extremely unlikely event the recall succeeds and a Republican replaces Newsom, he or she would face a state legislature with a Democratic supermajority and would stand zero chance to survive 2022.

His crime was making a big personal up at a bad time for the state's residents. That is all that is needed when the recall bar is low and there are more than enough committed partisans to always start a recall motion. Admittingly, its hard to get both of those things to coincide. The temporary nature of the issue that triggered all this though means that the recall motion continued on by inertia even though other events are now much more important. Unsuccessful recalls, like Walker's in Wisconsin, are usually doomed by how distant they are from the motivating crisis, and whether or not there were more issues that kept said issue or other executive faults in the news and minds of voters.

[Donerail]

I still don't get what's the point to waste millions of dollars and call voters to the polls to recall a Democratic governor in a rocksolid blue state 14 months before the next regular election takes place anyway? Just because said governor could do more to tackle crisis like homelessness? Or is his crime to listen to science during a pandemic? Of course Newsom wasn't perfect, but no comparison to Florida man or Cuomo. And in a new situation like this, some errors inevitably happen.

Even in the extremely unlikely event the recall succeeds and a Republican replaces Newsom, he or she would face a state legislature with a Democratic supermajority and would stand zero chance to survive 2022.

I think people are underestimating the tail risk here. The Republican field is mostly full of clowns, yes, and California is a very Democratic state, but there is a path to defeat here. It is narrow, and mostly dependent on things that are outside the control of politicians. But it is going to be a rough summer. The hills are as dry right now as they usually are in September (the driest and hottest month), and the models are showing a major heat wave next week in the northern and central parts of the state. It is hard not to see the possibility of a very, very bad fire season that, along with high temperatures, produces the collapse of the power grid across the state. People don't like blackouts.

Would that be enough to throw out a governor? Probably not, but it's worth remembering that the recall is presented on the ballot as an up/down vote on Gavin. I understand wanting to get it over with, but man, I would not have scheduled the recall for September when all this will be at a peak.

I imagine most of the people who signed on to the recall were mad about the pandemic restrictions — Newsom imposed very stringent restrictions (that he did not care to follow himself) and they produced effectively the same health outcomes as DeSantis. But that will not be the issue over which the recall will be fought.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is lower turnout in an off yr election and having an Election in 2021 instead 2022 was the best way to defeat Newsom, this is a 5 pt race, this isn't a landslide