CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Storr]

I guess I'm glad the presumptions can end. Although we've known for weeks now so not exactly climactic. The only thing that matters/mattered is when the votes are cast.

1.5 million is a very low threshold. Still, this recall would've never happened if it wasn't for the French Laundry incident happening within the 4 month extension window. I do worry that, unless some reforms are put in place, there'll be a serious GOP-led recall for every Democratic Governor in the near-future. Only a third of Trump 2016 voters are needed.

Hopefully Newsom winning by a convincing margin will discourage future GOP-led recall attempts.

[I’m not Stu]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Caitlyn Jenner might as well be Meghan McCain-someone who appeals to absolutely no one and seems to find a way to piss off every possible type of political demographic. I don't know if she knows this, and actually thinks she can win, but if so then it truly is entirely a vanity campaign. If we're lucky she'll be a footnote in this possible election like Kanye West was in 2020, in spite of their celebrity...and relationship to Kim Kardashian.

Is our politics just going become Six Degrees of Kardashian at this point? Trump even factors into that!

Why doesn't Jenner appeal to anyone? Explain. She was an U.S. Olympian....

She's too pro-Trump and right wing for Democrats, with trans activists thinking she is a  counterproductive spokesperson of theirs. And for Republicans she is possibly the poster-child for their paranoid fantasies of gender-bending athletes exploiting trans awareness for grandeur and prestige. She is also no longer the Bruce Jenner of their youth and they can't accept it. They are possibly too transphobic to even accept her as their "trans friend" to prove that theya ren't actually transphobic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D in a VBM Election

[Chips]

It is possible that Newsom could be removed if Democratic turnout is low, But I feel like enough Democrats will vote to where Newsom will remain in office by a 56-44% vote or something like that.

[JMT]

I’m rooting for a “no” vote on the recall, but I also do hope a credible Democratic candidates runs just in case the recall succeeds. It’s just too risky not to run someone. Running someone like Antonio Villaraigosa would be a good idea, in my opinion. He’s not necessarily a young, rising star in the party that would steal the spotlight from Newsom, but he’s also credible enough that if the recall succeeds, he could probably easily win the election to hold the seat for Democrats (especially given how many republicans are in the race to split the vote with each other).

[LabourJersey]

I’m rooting for a “no” vote on the recall, but I also do hope a credible Democratic candidates runs just in case the recall succeeds. It’s just too risky not to run someone. Running someone like Antonio Villaraigosa would be a good idea, in my opinion. He’s not necessarily a young, rising star in the party that would steal the spotlight from Newsom, but he’s also credible enough that if the recall succeeds, he could probably easily win the election to hold the seat for Democrats (especially given how many republicans are in the race to split the vote with each other).

I doubt there will be a high profile Dem running like Villaraigosa unless it looks like Newsom is doomed or badly damaged, neither of which look true right now.

He still has approval ratings around 51%, I find it really implausible that he loses especially since COVID can only go down in urgency/relevance in people's minds from here.

[Sir Mohamed]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

[I’m not Stu]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

[brucejoel99]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

Sir Mohamed literally answered that exact question, though of course, that not stopping you from trying to figure out how you can ask the same question in 500 different ways isn't at all surprising.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1386802857047851009?s=19

Given that CA has, what, 15M+ registered voters, it feels as though 1.5M seems like a very low threshold for a recall.

The recall and initiative guidelines were voted in place in 1911 and definitely should be updated I think Hiram Johnson had no clue how big the state would end up getting. I think it should probably be something like 25% of registered voters instead of 12 % of ballots cast in the last election especially with us having our elections in lower turnout midterms. I am a fan of having the ballot initiative process we have passed many laws it would take much longer to get through the state leg but it does have its downsides. and now its easy for corporations to buys laws (Prop 22 and 23)

That's an excellent reason to be *NOT* a big fan of ballot initiatives.

Pretty much all direct democracy "reforms" have been basically hijacked by political extremists and interests in order to push through policies that voters have barely thought about. Brexit is the biggest, most clear example of this but California's history of bad policies being pushed through the ballot should be warning enough.

Yeah, the biggest issues with the current recall/initiative system is the low signature requirement as well as how constitutional amendments only require 50%+1. Fortunately, Prop 22 (the Uber one) wasn’t an amendment, but it’s 7/8ths majority requirement for changes is extraordinarily odious.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Two stories to show just how DOA this recall is


LA Times: In dramatic turnaround, California now has the lowest coronavirus case rate in the U.S.

Months after a coronavirus surge sickened hundreds of thousands of people, left thousands dead and pushed hospitals to their breaking point, California’s virus case rate is now the lowest of any state in the nation, federal figures show.

Although the distinction doesn’t lessen the heavy toll exacted by the fall-and-winter wave, it does demonstrate the tremendous strides the state has made in its fight against the COVID-19 pandemic — progress that, to this point, has not been interrupted even as the state more widely reopens its economy.

For the record:

9:34 AM, Apr. 27, 2021An earlier version of this article reported that Dr. Mark Ghaly, the California Health and Human Services secretary, said that until October diners should probably eat outdoors at restaurants. Ghaly said people will probably prefer dining outdoors at restaurants instead of indoors until that time.

California’s latest seven-day rate of new cases was 32.5 per 100,000 people, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Over that same period, Hawaii had the second-lowest rate, at 36.8, and the nationwide rate was 114.7. California has for weeks reported one of the lowest case rates in the nation — though the top spot had remained largely out of reach.[...]

LA Times: L.A. County hits yellow tier marker; widest reopening could be a week away

Los Angeles County has one foot in the most lenient category of the state’s COVID-19 reopening system, a momentous achievement for a region that was once so ravaged by the coronavirus that it was considered the epicenter of the pandemic in California.

According to new state data released Tuesday, the county’s coronavirus case rate — adjusted based on the number of tests performed — dropped to 1.9 new cases per day per 100,000 people, reaching the threshold to enter California’s final yellow tier.

The county would have to maintain its numbers until next week to advance.

“It’s so encouraging to see the work we’re doing together having such a profound effect on the health and well-being of people all across our communities,” L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Monday, before the new state tiering data were unveiled.

Taking this next step would cap the county’s stunning rise up the California reopening ladder. It was only about six weeks ago that L.A. County first moved out of the most restrictive, purple tier, in which indoor operations are suspended or severely limited across a host of business sectors.

In the yellow tier, the last rung of California’s four-category, color-coded ladder, most businesses can operate indoors, with modifications.[...]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-04-26/california-lowest-coronavirus-case-rate-nation

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-04-27/la-county-hits-yellow-tier-widest-reopening-may-come-soon

[Donerail]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

But what would happen if you failed to vote for the replacement candidate, but yes on the recall?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

But what would happen if you failed to vote for the replacement candidate, but yes on the recall?

Absolutely nothing? what? Your vote Yes still counts, it's just like if you only voted for Prez, just cuz you didn't vote for any other office, your vote for Prez doesn't become invalidated.

[Donerail]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

But what would happen if you failed to vote for the replacement candidate, but yes on the recall?

Absolutely nothing? what? Your vote Yes still counts, it's just like if you only voted for Prez, just cuz you didn't vote for any other office, your vote for Prez doesn't become invalidated.

I see. But what happens if you vote "yes" on the recall, but for none of the replacement candidates?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

But what would happen if you failed to vote for the replacement candidate, but yes on the recall?

Absolutely nothing? what? Your vote Yes still counts, it's just like if you only voted for Prez, just cuz you didn't vote for any other office, your vote for Prez doesn't become invalidated.

I see. But what happens if you vote "yes" on the recall, but for none of the replacement candidates?

Well if you vote yes on recall, but none of replacements, the same thing would occur, except ofc, you'd get a stern letter saying you messed up.

[AtorBoltox]

The recall power should be eliminated. America has far too many provisions which just entrench minority rule

[PSOL]

Can’t the GOP just wait for Hispanics to become more GOP-friendly than this charade? I mean I fail to see what this accomplishes other than p!$$ing off the Libs in a very expensive fashion.

[bayareabay]

I'm voting no on recall and I'm fully confident it will fail.

[coloradocowboi]

Undecided on the recall, probably a no though, and it's losing either way 60-40

[Lognog]

I'm voting no on recall and I'm fully confident it will fail.

I can't wait for R's to go crazy when this obviously dumb idea that they've been working on for months fails

[President Johnson]

So it's up to Eleni Kounalakis soon to determine a date for the election? Hopefully they get this nonsense over with as soon as possible. It's going to fail spectacularly.

[StateBoiler]

The recall power should be eliminated. America has far too many provisions which just entrench minority rule

This is not an American thing as the power only exists where Progressives circa 1910 gained power.