CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Donerail]

Steyer running, making enough Dem voters feel comfortable voting YES for recall to succeed, and then winning b/c Republican voters split between Faulconer, Cox and Grenell would be a truly incredible self-own for the California GOP. As such, it's basically fated to happen at this point.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Steyer running, making enough Dem voters feel comfortable voting YES for recall to succeed, and then winning b/c Republican voters split between Faulconer, Cox and Grenell would be a truly incredible self-own for the California GOP. As such, it's basically fated to happen at this point.

The only way it would be any better is if Newsom could run in the replacement part of the election and win it with a plurality. But alas, he can’t.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Probolsky Research survey of CA:

Newsom fav/unfav: 42-39 (all California voters)
47-37 (likely recall voters)

Recall Q: 40% support recall, 46% oppose (all voters)

35% support recall, 52% oppose (likely recall voters)

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2021/03/23/newsom-recall-poll/

Absenting a big scandal dropping Newsom will comfortably win.

Honestly think the race data there is the most interesting stuff, namely Latinos being 44.5% support to 41.4% oppose, and blacks being 18.8% support to 71.9% oppose. Really makes sense in the context of who's being hurt by Newsom's brownie point based covid rules.

I think also that there is a lot more partisanship among Black voters, leading them to be skeptical about a Republican-run recall. Latinos are more likely to be both/either conservative or far-left comparatively, so they are more comfortable with recalling Newsom because they don't see him as intrinsically "on their team."

Makes perfect sense, but still, 18.8% for recall is super high, from a study I found, 2003 recall support from Blacks was only 21%. I also personally know fellow Latinos, especially in LA, have had lots of problems with Covid, just due to the jobs and market they take part in, I don't have any black family to base how adverse the affect has been on them.

[brucejoel99]

Governors Schwarzenegger & Steyer hold a bluntly honest, wide-ranging & frankly inspiring conversation concerning the perils & rewards of running for & being elected Governor in recall elections (colorized, circa 2024).

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Newsom isn't loved by D's in Cali, he is a DLC Dem that didn't give 600 bucks to non EIC tax filers which Steyer probably would have because everyone pays sales taxes.

Steyer should really run in Cali recall

[brucejoel99]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

Tom Steyer's about to be the next Governor, isn't he?

[Mike Thick]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

Some of the reporters I follow on Twitter say this is made up, and the article doesn’t exist. But if something bad is floating around out there, probably gets picked up soon

[brucejoel99]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

Some of the reporters I follow on Twitter say this is made up, and the article doesn’t exist. But if something bad is floating around out there, probably gets picked up soon

If you're able to get into it, can you please explain what the "this" (some article?)/the "something bad" is?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

Some of the reporters I follow on Twitter say this is made up, and the article doesn’t exist. But if something bad is floating around out there, probably gets picked up soon

If you're able to get into it, can you please explain what the "this" (some article?)/the "something bad" is?

Or even the tweets. I suspect it’s something sexual (like when he screwed his campaign manager’s wife like 15 years ago), but I have no confirmation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Arnie Scharzenegger was a Kennedy and penetrated the Latino vote,

Yikes! Phrasing!

Looked intentional to me. I laughed

It's hilarious! But I don't know if Olawakandi has the capabilities to make a joke that good except on accident. No offense.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Arnie Scharzenegger was a Kennedy and penetrated the Latino vote,

Yikes! Phrasing!

Looked intentional to me. I laughed

It's hilarious! But I don't know if Olawakandi has the capabilities to make a joke that good except on accident. No offense.

It definitely was a solid joke either way.

[Mike Thick]

I have no idea what the article is lol. The twitterer in question was actually an in-the-know Sac person rather than a reporter

https://twitter.com/samanthacorbin/status/1374802357037408257?s=21

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

And this sir, is the into I like to see. Thank you for your contribution, and as such, I'll give my own. I've been informed by Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares that 2 SoCal Dem Assemblymen have been making the rounds and testing the water for a run.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

And this sir, is the into I like to see. Thank you for your contribution, and as such, I'll give my own. I've been informed by Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares that 2 SoCal Dem Assemblymen have been making the rounds and testing the water for a run.

Interesting; that may be how my source heard about it as well. He heard it from his boss who shall remain unnamed.

[Mike Thick]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

[Mike Thick]

Aight its investigation time

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

My only question is, do they get like pay for taking a smaller plane up, would they charter one together? "A couple of the Assemblymen I fly up to Sacramento with", iirc that was the wording, all in the context of dems running. In my mind it was some regular flight from LAX, but honestly might be too "low"  for them. Burbank makes lots of sense though, less hassle certainly.
Looking at your 3 picks, Holden had his Wikipedia page edited in late December, Chau in late January, and Nazarian in June of 2018. His is written the most like campaign excerpts though. Thought if any had super recent edits it'd help point us.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

My only question is, do they get like pay for taking a smaller plane up, would they charter one together? "A couple of the Assemblymen I fly up to Sacramento with", iirc that was the wording, all in the context of dems running. In my mind it was some regular flight from LAX, but honestly might be too "low"  for them. Burbank makes lots of sense though, less hassle certainly.
Looking at your 3 picks, Holden had his Wikipedia page edited in late December, Chau in late January, and Nazarian in June of 2018. His is written the most like campaign excerpts though. Thought if any had super recent edits it'd help point us.

From what my friend has told me about their job, I don’t think lawmakers flying coach from Burbank or LAX is that big of an issue. It’s only like an hour long flight.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

My only question is, do they get like pay for taking a smaller plane up, would they charter one together? "A couple of the Assemblymen I fly up to Sacramento with", iirc that was the wording, all in the context of dems running. In my mind it was some regular flight from LAX, but honestly might be too "low"  for them. Burbank makes lots of sense though, less hassle certainly.
Looking at your 3 picks, Holden had his Wikipedia page edited in late December, Chau in late January, and Nazarian in June of 2018. His is written the most like campaign excerpts though. Thought if any had super recent edits it'd help point us.

My friend schedules a lot of commercial flights, so I don’t think lawmakers flying coach from Burbank or LAX is that big of an issue. It’s only like an hour long flight.

Yeah I didn't think so, but still, knowing people, they could get some importance stuck in their head.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

My only question is, do they get like pay for taking a smaller plane up, would they charter one together? "A couple of the Assemblymen I fly up to Sacramento with", iirc that was the wording, all in the context of dems running. In my mind it was some regular flight from LAX, but honestly might be too "low"  for them. Burbank makes lots of sense though, less hassle certainly.
Looking at your 3 picks, Holden had his Wikipedia page edited in late December, Chau in late January, and Nazarian in June of 2018. His is written the most like campaign excerpts though. Thought if any had super recent edits it'd help point us.

My friend schedules a lot of commercial flights, so I don’t think lawmakers flying coach from Burbank or LAX is that big of an issue. It’s only like an hour long flight.

Yeah I didn't think so, but still, knowing people, they could get some importance stuck in their head.

Totally fair. I think that a statewide official would probably fly private in general, but from what I hear, state legislators generally don’t.

[Mike Thick]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

Looking online, Chris Holden has specifically said he opposes the recall. Nazarian and Chau have both praised Newsom really highly on social media recently. Obv that doesn't rule out a No On Recall, Yes On Bustamante situation, but given how this is breaking down on pro-and-anti-Newsom lines, might suggest something.

So far (halfway through the 20 SoCal Dem Assemblymen) the most likely person is Richard Bloom of Santa Monica.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

Looking online, Chris Holden has specifically said he opposes the recall. Nazarian and Chau have both praised Newsom really highly on social media recently. Obv that doesn't rule out a No On Recall, Yes On Bustamante situation, but given how this is breaking down on pro-and-anti-Newsom lines, might suggest something.

So far (halfway through the 20 SoCal Dem Assemblymen) the most likely person is Richard Bloom of Santa Monica.

I had thought about Bloom, but he seems like he would be far more likely to use LAX. Now, that doesn’t mean that Assm. woman M-V doesn’t use LAX, but I would bet that she uses Burbank because LA area traffic is of course infamous.