CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #375 on: March 18, 2021, 09:56:07 AM »
« edited: March 18, 2021, 10:12:33 AM by StateBoiler »

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

It's an invisible primary. Republicans are (mostly) going to gravitate to one candidate, if they want the best chance at not electing another Democrat to replace Newsom.

You have a lot more faith in the California Republican Party than any one in California does.

It's not going to happen. Not with a "moderate" Mayor who is detested by 1/3 of the party, not with a Trumpist who is detested by 1/3 of the party, not with a random OC businessman who lost to Newsom by 24% and especially not with some early 2000s Congressman who faded away in 2018 for said random OC businessman & Travis f**kin Allen.

Simply put, the California Republican Party is a schizophrenic mess. Short of a Schwarzengger-like figure entering the race (You tell me who that'd be), they're gonna keep on pointing fingers while Newsom/Democrats just have to shake their heads & laugh.

The Rock. Per his new TV sitcom he's running for president in 2032. Needs to learn somewhere.

(I kid...some.)

Re Newsom and Democrats shaking their heads and laughing, the L.A. Times did an analysis comparing Covid deaths in the state to Florida and the much criticized DeSantis. California is 7% less deaths than Florida per capita, but that difference can easily be explained by Florida's older population considering how the lethality of Covid is significantly higher among the elderly (average age in Florida is 5 years higher than California). Meanwhile you have public schools that can't or won't reopen in parts of the state due to teachers' unions and this lost year is going to be the biggest driver of achievement gaps for these kids compared to the schools there that are in session in living memory, so we're failing the public school kids, he imposed all these restrictions on people's lives that he himself did not live up to go to a campaign fundraiser, which is not great optics, and meanwhile the state's economy is shot to hell. And per Blairite, with a supermajority Democratic legislature he does not have one achievement. He'll probably defeat the recall, but he's not a good Governor.

Think the most realistic good result considering the state of California politics is Newsom is removed and he is replaced by another Democrat.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #376 on: March 18, 2021, 12:37:37 PM »

So now that Becerra’s confirmed, it’s time for Gavin to pick his replacement. Some names that have been floating around:
 - Rep. Adam Schiff
 - State Assemblyman Rob Bonta
 - Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg
 - State Sen. Anna Caballero
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President Johnson
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« Reply #377 on: March 18, 2021, 02:32:40 PM »

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #378 on: March 18, 2021, 09:44:45 PM »

So now that Becerra’s confirmed, it’s time for Gavin to pick his replacement. Some names that have been floating around:
- Rep. Adam Schiff
- State Assemblyman Rob Bonta
 - Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg
 - State Sen. Anna Caballero
I'd say give the guy his career capping for the out honestly.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #379 on: March 19, 2021, 01:08:31 AM »

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.

I'm in for Bonta too honestly. Fits the moment and he could potentially be Gov one day
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #380 on: March 19, 2021, 01:11:34 AM »

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.

I'm in for Bonta too honestly. Fits the moment and he could potentially be Gov one day

I’d echo this. We don’t need to be taking more folks from the US House as also mentioned.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #381 on: March 19, 2021, 10:52:26 AM »

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.

I'm in for Bonta too honestly. Fits the moment and he could potentially be Gov one day

I’d echo this. We don’t need to be taking more folks from the US House as also mentioned.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/us/politics/dianne-feinstein-biden.html?force_isolation=true

Quote
Buried in this (mostly wishcasting) article about Democrats trying to push California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) out of her seat in favor of someone younger and more left-wing is the nugget that Nevada Rep. Dina Titus (D) is thought to be actively lobbying the Biden administration for an ambassadorship, possibly to Greece. Should Titus be named an Ambassador she would vacate her deep-blue NV-1 seat covering the center of the Las Vegas metro area.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #382 on: March 19, 2021, 01:37:43 PM »

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.

I'm in for Bonta too honestly. Fits the moment and he could potentially be Gov one day

I’d echo this. We don’t need to be taking more folks from the US House as also mentioned.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/us/politics/dianne-feinstein-biden.html?force_isolation=true

Quote
Buried in this (mostly wishcasting) article about Democrats trying to push California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) out of her seat in favor of someone younger and more left-wing is the nugget that Nevada Rep. Dina Titus (D) is thought to be actively lobbying the Biden administration for an ambassadorship, possibly to Greece. Should Titus be named an Ambassador she would vacate her deep-blue NV-1 seat covering the center of the Las Vegas metro area.

Ok, she shouldn't get that ambassadorship, then. Not that complicated.
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Kevin
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« Reply #383 on: March 20, 2021, 12:11:13 PM »

Pardon my ignorance, but how exactly does a California recall work?

From my understanding, if enough voter signatures are collected statewide, a "Yes" or "No" option is presented to voters? If the "Yes" side wins does that mean Democrats will have replace Newsom on the ballot for the next two rounds of special election voting?

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #384 on: March 20, 2021, 12:35:35 PM »

Pardon my ignorance, but how exactly does a California recall work?

From my understanding, if enough voter signatures are collected statewide, a "Yes" or "No" option is presented to voters? If the "Yes" side wins does that mean Democrats will have replace Newsom on the ballot for the next two rounds of special election voting?



If enough signatures are collected and approved by the state then a two-question vote is presented to the electorate. The first question is a majoritarian "should X be recalled?" which must win a majority of the vote. If "Yes" wins the first question than the second question "Who should replace X" is implemented. The second questions formatting has not changed since the governator in '03: everyone is on a giant ballot and the plurality winner is inaugurated. The incumbent cannot be an option on the second question.

Its essentially the reverse of the normal system, requiring a majority to be obtained first before looking at the blanked primary. Of course it is extremely unlikely right now the recall succeeds because the Democrats are (rightly) branding the first question a partisan one, and no replacement candidate with the potential to cut through the partisan opinions has expressed interest. This will likely lead to a rejection of question one by a similar degree to the presidential vote, which is why we got "No" winning in a poll of OC not that long ago.
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Donerail
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« Reply #385 on: March 20, 2021, 02:58:29 PM »

From my understanding, if enough voter signatures are collected statewide, a "Yes" or "No" option is presented to voters?
Yes

If the "Yes" side wins does that mean Democrats will have replace Newsom on the ballot for the next two rounds of special election voting?
Nope. There aren't multiple rounds of voting and there's no special election — there's just two questions on the recall ballot, yes/no on Gavin and selecting one name from a list for who you want to replace Gavin in the event yes wins. If yes gets 50%+1, the name that got the most votes on the second question becomes Governor. It is possible to win with a plurality (and it's possible that more people vote to retain Gavin than votes for any of the alternatives, but that doesn't matter as long as it clears 50%).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #386 on: March 20, 2021, 09:54:13 PM »

Newsom isn't gonna be recalled in a VBM system, Arnie Scharzenegger was a Kennedy and penetrated the Latino vote, Latinos, have been able to get section 8 vouchers from the Cali system and has that advantage over AA since they have more kids, that's why they will vote for Newsom

Also, they intermarry with Native Americans especially in SF where I used to live, they don't work to make ends meet they use Per Capita as well 3K a mnth for each tribe, passed by Ronald Reagan, whom said socialism will be the next evil
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #387 on: March 21, 2021, 12:29:38 AM »

Arnie Scharzenegger was a Kennedy and penetrated the Latino vote,

Yikes! Phrasing!
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #388 on: March 21, 2021, 04:40:16 PM »

Arnie Scharzenegger was a Kennedy and penetrated the Latino vote,

Yikes! Phrasing!

Looked intentional to me. I laughed
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #389 on: March 23, 2021, 10:35:11 PM »

Lolololololololololol

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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #390 on: March 23, 2021, 10:37:06 PM »

Lolololololololololol


I mean, he could dump the cash if he wanted. I encourage and beg for his entry, can't be worse.
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PSOL
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« Reply #391 on: March 23, 2021, 10:49:56 PM »

I’d vote for Tom Steyer over Newsom.
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Not Me, Us
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« Reply #392 on: March 24, 2021, 12:13:54 AM »

Is it weird that I kind of like Tom Steyer? He was pretty endearing during his presidential run and was actually my third choice.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #393 on: March 24, 2021, 01:18:40 AM »

I'm cool with Tom Steyer, but what I'd really like to see is his lone plaid tie make a run for Governor too.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #394 on: March 24, 2021, 03:08:29 AM »

He’s not the worst option out there. But that’s more a function of CADems having so many terrible people than him actually being good.

Friendly reminder that he forced FOs to work 90 hours a week for his climate org that was secretly a proto-2020-campaign.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #395 on: March 24, 2021, 07:26:26 AM »

Why are people worried about Newsom, he isn't being voted out in a VBM Election, he was on MSNBC and fully aware that D's won big in District 30 due to high turnout in a VBM Election
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #396 on: March 24, 2021, 08:47:05 AM »

Probolsky Research survey of CA:

Newsom fav/unfav: 42-39 (all California voters)
47-37 (likely recall voters)

Recall Q: 40% support recall, 46% oppose (all voters)

35% support recall, 52% oppose (likely recall voters)

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2021/03/23/newsom-recall-poll/

Absenting a big scandal dropping Newsom will comfortably win.
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #397 on: March 24, 2021, 09:41:36 AM »

Probolsky Research survey of CA:

Newsom fav/unfav: 42-39 (all California voters)
47-37 (likely recall voters)

Recall Q: 40% support recall, 46% oppose (all voters)

35% support recall, 52% oppose (likely recall voters)

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2021/03/23/newsom-recall-poll/

Absenting a big scandal dropping Newsom will comfortably win.
Honestly think the race data there is the most interesting stuff, namely Latinos being 44.5% support to 41.4% oppose, and blacks being 18.8% support to 71.9% oppose. Really makes sense in the context of who's being hurt by Newsom's brownie point based covid rules.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #398 on: March 24, 2021, 09:47:10 AM »

The recall was always a longshot at best. Newsom is going to survive and win reelection next year. GOPers picked the wrong fight.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #399 on: March 24, 2021, 11:32:01 AM »

Probolsky Research survey of CA:

Newsom fav/unfav: 42-39 (all California voters)
47-37 (likely recall voters)

Recall Q: 40% support recall, 46% oppose (all voters)

35% support recall, 52% oppose (likely recall voters)

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2021/03/23/newsom-recall-poll/

Absenting a big scandal dropping Newsom will comfortably win.
Honestly think the race data there is the most interesting stuff, namely Latinos being 44.5% support to 41.4% oppose, and blacks being 18.8% support to 71.9% oppose. Really makes sense in the context of who's being hurt by Newsom's brownie point based covid rules.

I think also that there is a lot more partisanship among Black voters, leading them to be skeptical about a Republican-run recall. Latinos are more likely to be both/either conservative or far-left comparatively, so they are more comfortable with recalling Newsom because they don't see him as intrinsically "on their team."
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