CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I can already tell this is gonna be a fun thread over the next 3-6 months

[brucejoel99]

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/exclusive-poll-californians-split-on-newsom-as-recall-looms/

An incumbent Democratic governor of one of the most Democratic states in the Union being favored to not be kicked out of office? Shocking.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

Who do you see as potentially successful governor of California? I agree that Newsom's tenure is underwhelming, though I oppose the recall (like most recalls, just go through regular elections). London Breed? Eleni Kounalakis? John Chiang? Adam Schiff?

Schiff, Lieu, Becerra, and Breedliterally anyone else are the obvious ones imo. Maybe Porter. I still think Villaraigosa would have been great but he's DOA.

The thing is, I oppose almost all recalls. I don't like the process at all. But if they're the law of the land, then they are to be used in two situations: 1) dereliction of duty or 2) corruption. In my view, Gavin meets both criteria. He hit the first when California surged in cases in November and thousands of excess deaths occurred here over the nation as a whole. That localized surge never had to happen and the fact that it did speaks to a failure on the part of statewide leadership. Those excess deaths are the fault of Gavin Newsom, personally. The second occurred when he violated his own Covid restrictions--which is self explanatory.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In other news, Newsom & the CA Democratic Party officially launched their anti-recall campaign today.

The first slate of recall opponents (anti-recall endorsers?) they've announced are Alex Padilla, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Stacy Abrams, Katie Porter & Ro Khanna.

https://stoptherepublicanrecall.com/


Pretty clear that they're gonna be making this as much about Trump & Republicans 'stealing' a Governors seat as they possibly can (As they should be)

[I’m not Stu]

A majority yes vote and a split Democratic vote could lead to a Republican governor even if Democrats get a large majority of the vote.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

A majority yes vote and a split Democratic vote could lead to a Republican governor even if Democrats get a large majority of the vote.

We know

Personally, I would implement instant run-offs in case of a successful recall.

Yes, it could prove to be overwhelming should 100+ candidates run like in 2003. But I'll be pissed if John Cox's pisspoor 38% in 2018 turns into a successful 38% in 2021.

[StateBoiler]

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

The thing that's annoying about Newsom is he had to get tricks pulled and national resources put into him to win the Mayor of San Francisco. He was taken to a run-off by the Green Party candidate and the Democrats were scared at the time. How do you go from "I need national party help to defeat a Green for Mayor" to "I'm the best candidate the Democrats can run for Governor"? Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

Yes.

[brucejoel99]

Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

Yes.

"Honesty is such a lonely word."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs wasted money on the recall, NEWSOM isn't losing a recall in a VBM Election, we had high D turnout in District 30 where an AA female won and Santa Ana and Orange and Huntington Beach and Burbank where middle class Latinos live is Titanium D

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

It's more to do with regional unity than organization. The Bay Area has higher turnout than most other regions & they're more-or-less on the same page politically.

In the case of something like Southern California, it's a much more fragmented net to cast and they're not exactly enthusiastic to turnout either. There's a wide gap between LA City Democrats & LA County Democrats, let alone those in OC, San Diego, Ventura, Inland Empire, etc.

Just look at the 2018 primary with with 'northerner' Newsom & 'southerner' Villaraigosa. The latter couldn't even win the city he was mayor of, whereas Newsom was winning some greater bay area counties 5 to 1

[President Johnson]

A majority yes vote and a split Democratic vote could lead to a Republican governor even if Democrats get a large majority of the vote.

We know

Personally, I would implement instant run-offs in case of a successful recall.

Yes, it could prove to be overwhelming should 100+ candidates run like in 2003. But I'll be pissed if John Cox's pisspoor 38% in 2018 turns into a successful 38% in 2021.

Even if this scenario - that has a very slim chance to begin with - were to become true, Cox wouldn't get a full term in 2022. There is just no chance. He'd be a 14 month lame duck governor with a two thirds Democratic legislature passing laws over his vetos.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

A majority yes vote and a split Democratic vote could lead to a Republican governor even if Democrats get a large majority of the vote.

We know

Personally, I would implement instant run-offs in case of a successful recall.

Yes, it could prove to be overwhelming should 100+ candidates run like in 2003. But I'll be pissed if John Cox's pisspoor 38% in 2018 turns into a successful 38% in 2021.

Even if this scenario - that has a very slim chance to begin with - were to become true, Cox wouldn't get a full term in 2022. There is just no chance. He'd be a 14 month lame duck governor with a two thirds Democratic legislature passing laws over his vetos.

I am absolutely aware. I was just thinking in terms of the upcoming recall, knowing full well any Republican would be DOA next year.

I would still prefer not to live, even a day, in the world with California Governor Cox, Falcouner or Grenell. Especially if said Republican sputtered by with less than 45-50%

[JMT]

Doug Ose running, if the recall happens:

https://twitter.com/jeremybwhite/status/1371953916707966980?s=21

[NewYorkExpress]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

[Donerail]

Doug Ose announced he was running for governor in 2018, no one noticed or cared, and he dropped out two months later. He is not a particularly strong candidate.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

[NewYorkExpress]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

[Holmes]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

California isn't gonna vote for a Republican... period. California has changed considerably since 2010, and don't forget that Republicans also suffered serious losses in California in 2010. You can make the point that a Republican can win with 30% of the vote if the recall passes, but using "lean/likely/safe" ratings in this case is flawed.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I’m assuming that any Dems are remaining mum until it’s confirmed that there will be a recall. I hope that the Dem Party coordinates and gets only one major candidate to run (aside from the perennials on both sides).

[brucejoel99]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

It's an invisible primary. Republicans are (mostly) going to gravitate to one candidate, if they want the best chance at not electing another Democrat to replace Newsom.

[Mike Thick]

Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

It's more to do with regional unity than organization. The Bay Area has higher turnout than most other regions & they're more-or-less on the same page politically.

In the case of something like Southern California, it's a much more fragmented net to cast and they're not exactly enthusiastic to turnout either. There's a wide gap between LA City Democrats & LA County Democrats, let alone those in OC, San Diego, Ventura, Inland Empire, etc.

Just look at the 2018 primary with with 'northerner' Newsom & 'southerner' Villaraigosa. The latter couldn't even win the city he was mayor of, whereas Newsom was winning some greater bay area counties 5 to 1

The Bay has been solidly Democratic for like decades now. Contrast that with most of the L.A. area and San Diego, which only started giving Dems huge numbers in the 90's and 2000's. Huge huge head start on organization.

As for the Republicans: they're going to be split three ways between Cox, Grenell, and Faulconer. There is no "invisible primary" here. They are going to beat each other to death.

[brucejoel99]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

It's an invisible primary. Republicans are (mostly) going to gravitate to one candidate, if they want the best chance at not electing another Democrat to replace Newsom.

You're giving the CA Republican Party a bit too much credit, given that this is the same party that managed to get itself locked-out of the general in 3 of the last 4 marquee statewide elections.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

It's an invisible primary. Republicans are (mostly) going to gravitate to one candidate, if they want the best chance at not electing another Democrat to replace Newsom.

You have a lot more faith in the California Republican Party than any one in California does.

It's not going to happen. Not with a "moderate" Mayor who is detested by 1/3 of the party, not with a Trumpist who is detested by 1/3 of the party, not with a random OC businessman who lost to Newsom by 24% and especially not with some early 2000s Congressman who faded away in 2018 for said random OC businessman & Travis f**kin Allen.

Simply put, the California Republican Party is a schizophrenic mess. Short of a Schwarzengger-like figure entering the race (You tell me who that'd be), they're gonna keep on pointing fingers while Newsom/Democrats just have to shake their heads & laugh.