CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 08:31:57 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 18 19 ... 100
Author Topic: CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread  (Read 122719 times)
ChiefFireWaterMike
LordRichard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #325 on: February 22, 2021, 06:58:01 PM »

Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.
Mhm. Only question is when the election will happen.
Logged
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,792
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #326 on: February 23, 2021, 12:12:22 AM »

Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.
Mhm. Only question is when the election will happen.

And how much Newsom wins by
Logged
ChiefFireWaterMike
LordRichard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #327 on: February 23, 2021, 10:36:21 AM »

Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.
Mhm. Only question is when the election will happen.

And how much Newsom wins by
Oh yes. although I'd say, regardless of the recent scare about if the recall would make it, his survival is less likely than recall getting on the ballot.
Logged
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,792
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #328 on: February 23, 2021, 08:41:53 PM »

Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.
Mhm. Only question is when the election will happen.

And how much Newsom wins by
Oh yes. although I'd say, regardless of the recent scare about if the recall would make it, his survival is less likely than recall getting on the ballot.

Yea, but unless there’s some crazy splintering I doubt a republican wins. I can’t see the Democratic Party bucking him right now. Especially when Newsom has appointed like four of statewide officials. He’s pretty much consolidated his position
Logged
ChiefFireWaterMike
LordRichard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #329 on: February 23, 2021, 08:49:14 PM »

Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.
Mhm. Only question is when the election will happen.

And how much Newsom wins by
Oh yes. although I'd say, regardless of the recent scare about if the recall would make it, his survival is less likely than recall getting on the ballot.

Yea, but unless there’s some crazy splintering I doubt a republican wins. I can’t see the Democratic Party bucking him right now. Especially when Newsom has appointed like four of statewide officials. He’s pretty much consolidated his position

Considering the triaging so far of Question 2, it might not require much, if any, major splintering.  Dems, being smart, are focusing all on 1, but if they fail there, I think a republican is the odds on favorite.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #330 on: February 27, 2021, 03:57:07 PM »

Ric Grennell to meet with Trump, discuss bid for Governor.

Quote
Former acting national intelligence director Ric Grenell is slated to have dinner with former President Donald Trump Saturday evening to discuss his potential run for California governor, among other issues, according to three people familiar with the plans.

The sit-down, which is set to take place at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, comes as Grenell moves closer to launching a campaign in the possible upcoming recall election of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. Grenell strongly hinted during a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference Saturday morning that he was leaning toward a bid, saying that he has “never seen a better case for a recall” than the effort to recall Newsom.


“And of course, if a public official is still failing to deliver on their promises, and if you can’t limit their term or recall them in time, there's always one other option: You can run against them yourself,” Grenell said at the tail end of his speech.


Neither Grenell nor a Trump spokesman responded to requests for comment.

Trump has yet to publicly weigh in on the recall effort, though many of his staunchest backers have made clear they support Newsom’s removal. Former Trump aide Mercedes Schlapp, the wife of CPAC head Matt Schlapp, remarked onstage Saturday morning that Grenell would “make a great governor of California.”

The 54-year-old Grenell, a Palm Springs, Calif., resident, is close to the former president and is frequently in touch with him. In addition to spending several months as Trump’s acting director of national intelligence, Grenell was also ambassador to Germany in the Trump administration. Grenell campaigned aggressively for Trump’s reelection in 2020 and pushed Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of fraud after the vote.

Should he run, Grenell would likely be supported by a substantial fundraising operation. He was a major draw at Trump fundraisers during the 2020 campaign, and many of the former president’s biggest contributors have called on him to enter the contest. But while Grenell’s relationship with Trump is likely to help him with Republican voters, it could be a complicating factor. The former president got just 34 percent of the vote in California in 2020, and Democrats have signaled they’re eager to focus a recall campaign on Trump instead of questions about how Newsom has handled the coronavirus pandemic.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #331 on: February 27, 2021, 05:12:59 PM »

The CA GOP needs to pick a lane already. This would be the 3rd (4th?) gubernatorial race in a row where they think they have their ducks in a row but it gets engulfed into a establishment/conservative stampede towards the extreme right.

I felt Newsom was gonna avoid a successful recall already, but doubly so if it turns into the latest & greatest installment of the schizophrenic saga that is the CA Republican Party.
Logged
kwabbit
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #332 on: March 01, 2021, 02:30:31 PM »

With Newsom striking a deal to reopen schools, much of the impetus for recalling him has disappeared, and any chance for the recall to be successful likely has as well.

That being said, the recall movement should still be seen as a success, no matter the final outcome. It did pressure Newsom to respond to his constituents' concerns over school closings. And even if he defeats the recall, his political career will have been damaged enough to probably prevent him from launching a successful presidential campaign.

Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,807
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #333 on: March 01, 2021, 02:36:44 PM »

Rs are wasting money in Ca recall effort, this isn't 2003/ and our base will come out since it's a VBM Election
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #334 on: March 01, 2021, 02:59:29 PM »

Grenell must have terrible political instincts if he actually thinks he has a slight chance to win in the state of California in the 2020s. The recall probably won't succeed and if so, would elect another Democrat. Grenell may eke out Faulconer in a 2022 jungle primary for the second spot, but Newsom or any other serious Democrat would absolutely destroy this Trump buddy.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #335 on: March 02, 2021, 09:56:44 AM »

Grenell must have terrible political instincts if he actually thinks he has a slight chance to win in the state of California in the 2020s. The recall probably won't succeed and if so, would elect another Democrat. Grenell may eke out Faulconer in a 2022 jungle primary for the second spot, but Newsom or any other serious Democrat would absolutely destroy this Trump buddy.

If Grennell and Faulconer are the only serious GOPers running in a primary, Grennell will absolutely top him. I have predicted a more right-winger to beat Faulconer, but John Cox is also in the race and may split the conservative vote. But I agree Grennell, a Trump lackey, would have zero chance against Newsom.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #336 on: March 02, 2021, 06:25:42 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2021, 06:30:03 PM by Monstro Believed in a Blue Georgia (and a Blue Texas) »

And even if he defeats the recall, his political career will have been damaged enough to probably prevent him from launching a successful presidential campaign.

He's Governor of California and the former Mayor of San Francisco. His presidential campaign was doomed 10 years ago, let alone 2 years ago.

If Kamala Harris was polling poorly in California before she dropped her presidential run, what chance does/did Newsom have pre-COVID?
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #337 on: March 04, 2021, 02:47:56 PM »

More of an opinion piece, but some interesting factoids nonetheless.

Quote
LA Times: Orange County a problem for Newsom recall effort

If a Republican cause can’t win big in Orange County, it’s probably doomed statewide in Democrat-dominated California.

It’s just a matter of math: Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 advantage over Republicans in voter registration statewide. And independent voters — registered as “no party preference” — lean toward Democrats.

The apparent lack of heavy support in the former Republican stronghold of Orange County is one reason why the GOP-backed effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems headed for failure if it qualifies for a statewide ballot, as now seems likely.

A poll of 703 Orange County adults sponsored by Chapman University shows that they’re basically split over whether Newsom should be ousted before his term expires at the end of 2022 — a bad sign for recall pushers. In fact, Orange County residents lean slightly against the proposed recall, according to the survey.

Asked whether Newsom should be recalled, 48% of those interviewed answered yes and 52% said no.

Their views were largely shaped by political partisanship, of course. Among Republicans, 80% favored recalling the governor while 84% of Democrats opposed it. A slim majority of independents, 53%, supported the recall.

The last major independent statewide poll on the recall was conducted in late January by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.

Among registered voters, 36% favored the recall and 45% opposed it, with 19% undecided.

In Orange County alone, the IGS survey found 45% supporting the recall — similar to the Chapman survey — but only 39% opposed, with 16% undecided.

“The recall would have to be doing much better in Orange County if it were to be successful,” says Chapman political science professor Fred Smoller, who oversaw the poll.
[...]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-04/skelton-orange-county-republicans-democrats-california-governor-newsom-recall-chances
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #338 on: March 08, 2021, 03:23:27 PM »

Bernie has something to say here:

Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #339 on: March 08, 2021, 06:52:04 PM »


Bernie Sanders & being correct: name a more iconic duo.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,807
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #340 on: March 08, 2021, 08:40:26 PM »

Newsom passed a 600 check for only ETC workers which is silly, no wonder he is being recalled, you don't pass a stimulus for only people that work. California is an entitlement state
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #341 on: March 15, 2021, 11:38:37 AM »





Logged
ChiefFireWaterMike
LordRichard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #342 on: March 15, 2021, 12:50:45 PM »

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/exclusive-poll-californians-split-on-newsom-as-recall-looms/
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #343 on: March 15, 2021, 02:45:02 PM »


Full poll: https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/california-poll-governor-newsom-facing-potential-recall


My key takeaways

- So many decimals points
- Recall gets 38% with 14% undecided
- 16.4% of Democrats, 15.8% of Independents and 6.7% of Republicans are Undecided
- Newsom's job approval is at 42-40 with 18% undecided
- Undecideds in general make up double-digits whenever it's asked
- No Undecided/DK option for some of the questions
- Memerson

This poll & the recall is a waste of time.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #344 on: March 15, 2021, 02:50:34 PM »


Full poll: https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/california-poll-governor-newsom-facing-potential-recall


My key takeaways

- So many decimals points
- Recall gets 38% with 14% undecided
- 16.4% of Democrats, 15.8% of Independents and 6.7% of Republicans are Undecided
- Newsom's job approval is at 42-40 with 18% undecided
- Undecideds in general make up double-digits whenever it's asked
- No Undecided/DK option for some of the questions
- Memerson

This poll & the recall is a waste of time.

Most California polls, especially gubernatorial, were a waste of time in recent years.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #345 on: March 15, 2021, 03:03:46 PM »

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #346 on: March 15, 2021, 03:20:39 PM »

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

Who do you see as potentially successful governor of California? I agree that Newsom's tenure is underwhelming, though I oppose the recall (like most recalls, just go through regular elections). London Breed? Eleni Kounalakis? John Chiang? Adam Schiff?
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #347 on: March 15, 2021, 03:20:48 PM »

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

You alright? Seems like you're going through something right now.

Anyway, I'm against the recall & Schwarzenegger was much worse.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #348 on: March 15, 2021, 03:23:42 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2021, 03:29:30 PM by Blairite »

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

You alright? Seems like you're going through something right now.

Anyway, I'm against the recall & Schwarzenegger was much worse.

Schwarzenegger was much better than Gavin. And I've been anti-Gavin for years longer than I've been on this forum. I'm doing just fine, this is just how I always am about Gavin. I was furious when he won the primary in 2018 and only decided to back him over Cox at the last minute--a choice I now regret. He does not deserve his office.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #349 on: March 15, 2021, 03:28:54 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2021, 03:32:01 PM by Blairite »

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

Who do you see as potentially successful governor of California? I agree that Newsom's tenure is underwhelming, though I oppose the recall (like most recalls, just go through regular elections). London Breed? Eleni Kounalakis? John Chiang? Adam Schiff?

Schiff, Lieu, Becerra, and Breed are the obvious ones imo. Maybe Porter. I still think Villaraigosa would have been great but he's DOA.

The thing is, I oppose almost all recalls. I don't like the process at all. But if they're the law of the land, then they are to be used in two situations: 1) dereliction of duty or 2) corruption. In my view, Gavin meets both criteria. He hit the first when California surged in cases in November and thousands of excess deaths occurred here over the nation as a whole. That localized surge never had to happen and the fact that it did speaks to a failure on the part of statewide leadership. Those excess deaths are the fault of Gavin Newsom, personally. The second occurred when he violated his own Covid restrictions--which is self explanatory.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 18 19 ... 100  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 11 queries.