CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Newsom is more likely to face a credible challenger to his left than a credible Republican, but they would fail too. He isn't going anywhere, and it would be a waste of time to even try (although I welcome it).

Newsom has always been fairly progressive without angering more centrist Dems. He's not comparable to someone like Cuomo, who's more likely to lose to a primary opponent rather than a GOPer (neither will happen though). Unless a completely fractured field, the CA GOP is still strong enough to overcome any potential Dem challenger to Newsom to make it into the runoff as long as their leading candidate gets at least 20% of the vote in a jungle primary.

[AndyHogan14]

I could see Newsom being in trouble in a Biden midterm if his approval ratings get too low. I've seen people pointing out 2010 and 2018 as examples and I would caution against that. In 2010, while it was a Republican wave year nationwide, you have to remember that California had an extremely unpopular two-term Republican governor dragging Whitman (and the GOP as a whole) down. Also, Fiorina was plagued by scandal. In 2018, anyone that was even closely associated with the GOP (like Poizner) had the taint of Trump had no chance of winning in California.

While any Democrat is going to start out extremely favored in any statewide race, I do thing an "Independent" Republican could thread the needle and win if the Democrat in question has low approvals. First things first, however, Trump has to be gone. No Republican stands a chance here as long as Trump is the standard bearer of the Republican Party.

[Roll Roons]

I could see Newsom being in trouble in a Biden midterm if his approval ratings get too low. I've seen people pointing out 2010 and 2018 as examples and I would caution against that. In 2010, while it was a Republican wave year nationwide, you have to remember that California had an extremely unpopular two-term Republican governor dragging Whitman (and the GOP as a whole) down. Also, Fiorina was plagued by scandal. In 2018, anyone that was even closely associated with the GOP (like Poizner) had the taint of Trump had no chance of winning in California.

While any Democrat is going to start out extremely favored in any statewide race, I do thing an "Independent" Republican could thread the needle and win if the Democrat in question has low approvals. First things first, however, Trump has to be gone. No Republican stands a chance here as long as Trump is the standard bearer of the Republican Party.

I don't know. I feel like the Democratic base in California is just so huge and inelastic, and the Republican brand has become so toxic there, more so than in Maryland or Massachusetts. I agree that the best shot would be a Poizner scenario where a de facto Republican runs as an independent. He did have the best performance of any statewide Republican in 2018, but he was a known quantity and running against a particularly weak Democrat. So who knows.

[Calthrina950]

Newsom is, as has been stated on here, absolutely safe. The only way in which he, or any other Democrat loses, is if they're outed as Roy Moore 2.0. Barring that, no Republican (or independent) will be winning in California any time soon.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't think people outside of California understand just how toxic the GOP is here. We've got a similar political dynamic with Kansas, where it's practically a 3rd-party system of solid-right Republicans, solid-left Democrats & Moderates who can fit in either party depending where the electoral wind blows (Former "Schwarzenegger Republicans", I guess now "Maienschein Democrats"). Any GOP politician in a "nonpartisan" local office is DOA as soon as the R is next to their name in a remotely left-leaning district race.

Not to mention, 2016/2018 exit polls found voters under 40 support the GOP candidates in the 20s & 30s compared to support at the mid 30s-40 for everyone older. The California GOP seems well on their way to emulating the Hawaii GOP over the next couple cycles. And they haven't done any signs of "moderating" or a makeover to mitigate the damage. Just ask NPP Assemblyman Chad Mayes, who was stripped of his GOP Assembly leader part 3 years ago for supporting cap-and-trade & could lose this November to a generic solid-right Republican.

And for the record, Newsom's approval ratings still hover around 55%, pretty much what Jerry Brown got during his most recent governorship. He will not face a serious challenge, not face danger of losing re-election and could very well not face a Republican

[SevenEleven]

I don't think people outside of California understand just how toxic the GOP is here. We've got a similar political dynamic with Kansas, where it's practically a 3rd-party system of solid-right Republicans, far-left Democrats & Moderates who can be fit in either party depending where the electoral wind blows (Former "Schwarzenegger Republicans"). Any GOP politician in a "nonpartisan" local office is DOA as soon as the R is next to their name in a remotely left-leaning district race.

Not to mention, 2016/2018 exit polls found voters under 40 support the GOP candidates in the 20s & 30s compared to support at the mid 30s-40 for everyone older. The California GOP seems well on their way to emulating the Hawaii GOP over the next couple cycles.

And for the record, Newsom's approval ratings still hover around 55%, pretty much what Jerry Brown got for most of the 2010s. He will not face a serious challenge, not face danger of losing re-election and could very well not face a Republican

I hate to say it, but he's right. I can't see a republican winning a statewide race unless we get something like a Poizner, in a Bernie style midterm, against a scandal plagued Democrat. Then the "Republican" would win by maybe a point. I don't think we're so screwed so as to go to Hawaii levels, because with the exception of the seat I work in, the GOP is kinda at their screwed level already, maybe CA-50 as San Diego expands if exurbs and suburbs go that direction, although I don't know enough about San Diego to talk about its development.  Republicans do have a winnable brand, that of the Arnold Republicans, but they don't run in partisan races anymore, only the nonpartisan ones. You can see that with Councilman Lee in Los Angeles, he ran on an Arnold-esque  forget social issues just focus on taxes and over regulation, and kept a seat in republican hands on the Los Angeles City Council. The R next to your name is a death sentence in the coming years in all but the 7 seats that the GOP held in 2018.

 In a few decades, if there's a decrease in immigration, then maybe you can see the Latino population voting more Republican, that trend is evident with 4th and 5th Generation Latinos, only a large gain with Latinos could make Republicans competitive again at the state level, and it's sure not happening in the next decade. CA Gov is safe Dem unless a lock out happens, with only 2 republican candidates, and every Dem of note running, Newsom is safe, and will probably run for Feinsteins seat if she (hopefully not) decides to not run for relection in 2024, and wins it safe.

California is absolutely gone for Republicans and nothing about a "Bernie midterm" would change that.

Republicans simply do not have the numbers, the money to compete, the motive to even care to compete with no downballot presence to think of (it's going to be less than 7 after redistricting), and no viable candidate on their bench of any kind. The perfect storm that would be required for a non-Democrat to win in say the next ten years is so improbable that it isn't even worth considering. California voters are still in the process of moving further away from the GOP. In 2004, Bush won every congressional district in Orange County. Fifteen years later, Democrats hold every district in Orange County. Now that voting is so much easier in California, Republicans are cooked.

[coloradocowboi]

Agree with the others that GOP has no chance under any circumstances here. Not while they are still the racism party (which they will be for at least another decade thanks to their base).

Newsom is more likely to face a credible challenger to his left than a credible Republican, but they would fail too. He isn't going anywhere, and it would be a waste of time to even try (although I welcome it).

Newsom has always been fairly progressive without angering more centrist Dems. He's not comparable to someone like Cuomo, who's more likely to lose to a primary opponent rather than a GOPer (neither will happen though). Unless a completely fractured field, the CA GOP is still strong enough to overcome any potential Dem challenger to Newsom to make it into the runoff as long as their leading candidate gets at least 20% of the vote in a jungle primary.

Fairly progressive? How?

I can barely go outside today in central Los Angeles because of how bad the smoke is. Meanwhile, Newsom has approved 48 fracking permits just since April. He's from the centrist, establishment wing of the party.

I am not sure about that. It will really depend on who progressives nominate. After Bernie getting nearly 40% of the vote, I think we should hardly discount a progressive insurgent getting ~20% to Newsom's 40% in the initial primary. But then Republicans would rescue him. One way or the other, he gets re-elected somewhere in the 60-40 range even in the worst scenarios.

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

Republicans will get the top two slots.

[Canis]

Decided to turn this into the CA megathread anyone have any thoughts on the LA mayoral election next year the race seems wide open with Garcetti term limited https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Los_Angeles_mayoral_election
Mike Feurer  seems to be the frontrunner of the declared candidates but his endorsement of Lacey shows exactly where he stands lol I expect at least one more major candidate to declare be it John Lee or Kevin De Leon but I doubt Lee would wanna lose his seat on city council for a run at mayor which he would not have a real good shot at winning. Gruel, Wesson, and Ridley Thomas could all run too honestly no idea who im gonna back none of the candidates look particularly good.
So who do you guys think will run or win? I feel like theirs no candidate who could run and not have to go to a runoff this race will probably be quite competitive

[I’m not Stu]

Would Newsom still easily win if he faces another Democrat?

[Lognog]

Would Newsom still easily win if he faces another Democrat?

probably, he's popular

hard for a dem challenger to build of name ID in a huge state without party support

[Canis]

Yeah the only way I could see newsom lose to a D challenger is if he was challenged by a Hispanic moderate who could win the Hispanic vote and the republican vote but as we've seen in CA Sen 2018 thats not enough sometimes and before the Democrat who seemed like he could do that to beat Villaraigosa was in 2018 and Villas career is basically over.

[pikachu]

Decided to turn this into the CA megathread anyone have any thoughts on the LA mayoral election next year the race seems wide open with Garcetti term limited https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Los_Angeles_mayoral_election
Mike Feurer  seems to be the frontrunner of the declared candidates but his endorsement of Lacey shows exactly where he stands lol I expect at least one more major candidate to declare be it John Lee or Kevin De Leon but I doubt Lee would wanna lose his seat on city council for a run at mayor which he would not have a real good shot at winning. Gruel, Wesson, and Ridley Thomas could all run too honestly no idea who im gonna back none of the candidates look particularly good.
So who do you guys think will run or win? I feel like theirs no candidate who could run and not have to go to a runoff this race will probably be quite competitive

I personally know John, and worked on his campaign, I really don't think that he'd run for mayor unless something nukes the frontrunners and he sees an opening, I think he'd rather stay in his seat and keep that nearly $200k per year salary for a few more years then risk losing the race. I could see Kevin De Leon running, perhaps as a pathway to a new statewide run.

The Englender mess kills Lee’s campaign imo. Feuer, de Leon, and Ridley-Thomas are going to run, and I’d put the latter two as frontrunners because of name recognition, if nothing else.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Since we're discussing LA politics, what's everyones thoughts on the DA race? I'm honestly unsure how this turns out.

With COVID throwing a wrench into local campaigning, I'm going into November with the assumption that local incumbents are at a very good advantage. I can see Lacey winning by a bigger margin than expected (57-43?)

At the same time, Gascon has got some high-profile supporters. State & County Democratic Parties, LA Times, SEIU, Newsom, Harris, Dolores Huerta, Warren, Bernie, among plenty others.

Still, can't help but think that incumbents have a good advantage in this environment.

[Canis]

Since we're discussing LA politics, what's everyones thoughts on the DA race? I'm honestly unsure how this turns out.

With COVID throwing a wrench into local campaigning, I'm going into November with the assumption that local incumbents are at a very good advantage. I can see Lacey winning by a bigger margin than expected (55-45?)

At the same time, Gascons got everyone you'd want endorsing him. State & County Democratic Parties, LA Times, SEIU, Newsom, Harris, Dolores Huerta, Warren, Bernie, among plenty others

This race is truly a tossup i predict it will turn out like LA sheriff 2018 with the incumbent with a small lead that evaporates as VBM comes in but I could really see it going either way im voting for Gascon and hopes he wins Rossi would have made a better DA though hope we get  a poll of this race

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Since we're discussing LA politics, what's everyones thoughts on the DA race? I'm honestly unsure how this turns out.

With COVID throwing a wrench into local campaigning, I'm going into November with the assumption that local incumbents are at a very good advantage. I can see Lacey winning by a bigger margin than expected (55-45?)

At the same time, Gascons got everyone you'd want endorsing him. State & County Democratic Parties, LA Times, SEIU, Newsom, Harris, Dolores Huerta, Warren, Bernie, among plenty others

This race is truly a tossup i predict it will turn out like LA sheriff 2018 with the incumbent with a small lead that evaporates as VBM comes in but I could really see it going either way im voting for Gascon and hopes he wins Rossi would have made a better DA though hope we get  a poll of this race

I'm also expecting Lacey's lead to dwindle after election night. It's just hard to gauge the outlook. County law enforcement seems to be fanning the flames in the midst of the Compton shooting, news still trickles in about her husband pointing the gun at protesters, organizing hasn't let up & folks may seem ready to start fresh regarding criminal justice.

Yet at the same time, I don't know if folks think Lacey's done enough to be voted out or if Gascon is known enough to make a difference. And I keep bringing it up, but this is not a good election environment to be re-introducing yourself and challenging an incumbent. Lacey certainly has the advantage there, I think.

A Gascon blowout, dead-heat, Lacey blowout, any result wouldn't surprise me really. I just don't know

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Some ballot initiative polling from the Public Policy Institute of California:

September 4-13
1168 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%
Changes with April 1-9 poll

Prop. 15: “Increases Funding for Public Schools, Community Colleges, and Local Government Services by Changing Tax Assessment of Commercial and Industrial Property."

Yes 51% (-2)
No 40% (-7)
Don't know 9% (+8)

Prop. 16.: "“Allows Diversity as a Factor in Public Employment, Education, and Contracting Decisions. Legislative Constitutional Amendment."

Yes 31%
No 47%
Don't know 22%

N.B. they try to summarise the amendments when asking these questions, which could bias responses.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that 16 is failing. You would think that with the current environment the suburban voter would be more receptive to restoring affirmative action. Guess it isn't enough. The results map might be interesting given that the Prop's pulling in different types of lock-sold Dem voters than the usual partisan issue/candidate in a 50/50 race. I can see No doing better in the Bay Area and the whiter counties like Marin, and worse in the valley and LA when compared to say Poizer's electoral map.

[lfromnj]

The thing is there isn't any opposition besides the ballot statement which had to say

“   
Permits government decision-making policies to consider race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin to address diversity by repealing article I, section 31, of the California Constitution, which was added by Proposition 209 in 1996.
Proposition 209 generally prohibits state and local governments from discriminating against, or granting preferential treatment to, individuals or groups on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, education, or contracting.

However I expect the wokes to fall in place. Should pass by 10 points. Washington barely held on.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1306692797920161794
In other LA County political news Villanueva looks like hes in huge trouble wonder if were gonna elect 3 new Sherrifs back to back lol

[Heebie Jeebie]

2022 Predictions:

Governor:  Gavin Newsom
Senator:  Xavier Becerra
Lt. Governor:  Eleni Kounalakis
Attorney General:  Alex Padilla
Controller:  Eric Garcetti
Secretary of State:  Katie Porter

[2016]

The San Diego Mayor delivered a blistering Attack to Governor Gavin Newsom via Twitter:

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327594891531018240

[tosk]

yes almost certainly. he's also boosting a ballot initiative in 2022 if I remember correctly.

[Meatball Ron]

Ha. He'll be having a good night if he cracks 40%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I... agree... with kevin faulconer....

wow