CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I guess that turnout for this race will be low on both sides after what happened with the recall.

[Canis]

One race that will definitely be one to watch is the race for AG. Crime is one of the top issues in California today.
 The New AG Rob Bonta was recently appointed has been running as a progressive so far and in my opinion, has been doing a decent job so far.

Anne Marie Schubert is the Sacramento DA is running as an independent she was responsible for prosecuting the golden state killer shes running a tough on crime campaign but has been keeping her campaign out of hot-button partisan issues and has been endorsed by dozens of DA's, judges, and Sheriffs. If she makes the runoff she will definitely be the most dangerous opponent for Bonta as Poizner showed in 2018 NPP candidates can outrun R's by quite a lot.
 
Nathan Hochman is a former US Assistant Attorney General and has been endorsed by Pete Wilson Steven Cooley and most of the CA GOP. Hochman seems to be running a strong campaign for a republican but with California, partisan lean Bonta should be fine if he makes the runoff though Hochman might do better than your average R.

Steven Bailey and Eric Early are also back from 2018 I don't expect either of them to do too well but they may end up playing spoiler by splitting the Republican vote and allowing Schubert to make the top 2.

How do yall see the race playing out? and if Schubert makes the top two could Bonta lose? Im backing Bonta regardless of his opponent I'm pretty happy with the job he's done so far.

[Canis]

Faulconer is officially out
https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1502134116438867968
Looks like the stage is set for this to be a Newsom vs Dahle Showdown.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/10/newsom-recall-2022-california-governors-race-00016417

[President Johnson]

Faulconer is officially out
https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1502134116438867968
Looks like the stage is set for this to be a Newsom vs Dahle Showdown.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/10/newsom-recall-2022-california-governors-race-00016417

Would actually be hilarious if Newsom faces some random guy who nobody ever heard of and who never held any political office.

[Duke of York]

Isn't Brian Dahle a state senator still running for governor?

[DrScholl]

Dahle is still in and the only Republican with name recognition in the race.

[Oryxslayer]

Dahle is still in and the only Republican with name recognition in the race.

The state GOP has basically been emasculated by the recall, at least for 2022. Do a bit of digging and you'll find articles to describing how they halfheartedly are looking far down the ballot for targets and defenses. It's weirdly would be one of the best times for a primary challenge - as I theorized during the recall since the state GOP would be out of steam, the challenger could have a shot at the second runoff slot - but Dahle is the only non-Newsom candidate from any party with any seriousness.

[Canis]

Dahle is still in and the only Republican with name recognition in the race.

The state GOP has basically been emasculated by the recall, at least for 2022. Do a bit of digging and you'll find articles to describing how they halfheartedly are looking far down the ballot for targets and defenses. It's weirdly would be one of the best times for a primary challenge - as I theorized during the recall since the state GOP would be out of steam, the challenger could have a shot at the second runoff slot - but Dahle is the only non-Newsom candidate from any party with any seriousness.

Yeah, the recall made it clear that beating Newsom just ain't gonna happen GOP donors don't want to set any more money on Fire. Looks like the CA GOP's resources are gonna be used to mostly defend incumbents in congress and the state legislature and also go after some local nonpartisan races. Here in LA county they've been fundraising for scandal-ridden sheriff Alex Villanueva and trying to get the 3rd or 4th recall attempt on DA George Gascon on the ballot.

California is pretty much a three-party system at this point with the Progressive Dems, the Moderate Dems and the Republicans now.

[I’m not Stu]

Does Newsom likely face Dahle?

[gerritcole]

California is pretty much a three-party system at this point with the Progressive Dems, the Moderate Dems and the Republicans now.
[/quote]

CA has more registered independents than republicans

[Canis]

California is pretty much a three-party system at this point with the Progressive Dems, the Moderate Dems and the Republicans now.

CA has more registered independents than republicans
[/quote]
It briefly did Republicans have slightly more now
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/report-registration/154day-primary-2022
Democrats
10,275,371
46.7%
Republicans
5,271,141 
23.95%
No Party Preferance
5,039,628
22.9%

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

California is pretty much a three-party system at this point with the Progressive Dems, the Moderate Dems and the Republicans now.

CA has more registered independents than republicans

It briefly did Republicans have slightly more now
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/report-registration/154day-primary-2022
Democrats
10,275,371
46.7%
Republicans
5,271,141 
23.95%
No Party Preferance
5,039,628
22.9%

Wonder what the raw numbers were back when I > R

[Minnesota Mike]

Unofficial statewide candidate list in California.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1503887154241441795

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1504247814200594434/photo/1
Controllers also gonna be one to watch
Ron Galprien is LA city's controller and he's been endorsed by pretty much all the local Dem politicians here.
Malia Cohen has been endorsed by the CA democratic party and is the most progressive candidate in the race shes who I'm most likely voting for.
Steve Glazer hopped in at the last minute he's one of the most moderate dem state senators he was part of the effort to kill calcare.
The mayor of Monterey is also in the race I don't expect her to be a significant player at all she doesn't have any endorsements or money and is running as a moderate.
Theirs only one R in the race so the rs have a good chance of making the runoff which is a fractured field but I also think a Galprien Cohen runoff is not completely out of the realms of possibility.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In regards to the AG race, I feel this is gonna be a repeated talking point between now and November:


LA Times: A D.A. issued dire warnings about the Sacramento gun battle suspect. He was released early from prison anyway

The man arrested for possessing a machine gun at the scene of Sunday’s deadly shooting in Sacramento was allowed to leave prison in February despite opposition from the county’s district attorney to his early release.[...]

Almost exactly a year ago, Dist. Atty. Anne Marie Schubert’s office opposed Smiley Martin’s release from state prison to the Board of Parole Hearings in a two-page letter, first reported by the Sacramento Bee. The district attorney’s office asked that he not be freed because he is a career criminal and a danger to the community. Schubert released the letter after a records request but would not comment further.

“Inmate Martin has, for his entire adult life, displayed a pattern of criminal behavior,” wrote Deputy Dist. Atty Danielle Abildgaard. “While the current case on review may not be ‘violent’ under the Penal Code, Inmate Martin’s criminal conduct is violent and lengthy.[...]

California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation officials said the Board of Parole Hearings denied Martin parole under nonviolent parole review in May 2021, but he was later released in February 2022.

He had entered the state prison system in January 2018 with a 10-year sentence. But CDCR officials said prior to reaching a CDCR facility, Martin had already received 508 days of pre-sentencing credits, and received a variety of additional post-sentencing credits and hence was let go early this year, having served his sentence.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-05/sacramento-shooting-suspect-got-out-of-prison-early-despite-da-opposition

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

In regards to the AG race, I feel this is gonna be a repeated talking point between now and November:


LA Times: A D.A. issued dire warnings about the Sacramento gun battle suspect. He was released early from prison anyway

The man arrested for possessing a machine gun at the scene of Sunday’s deadly shooting in Sacramento was allowed to leave prison in February despite opposition from the county’s district attorney to his early release.[...]

Almost exactly a year ago, Dist. Atty. Anne Marie Schubert’s office opposed Smiley Martin’s release from state prison to the Board of Parole Hearings in a two-page letter, first reported by the Sacramento Bee. The district attorney’s office asked that he not be freed because he is a career criminal and a danger to the community. Schubert released the letter after a records request but would not comment further.

“Inmate Martin has, for his entire adult life, displayed a pattern of criminal behavior,” wrote Deputy Dist. Atty Danielle Abildgaard. “While the current case on review may not be ‘violent’ under the Penal Code, Inmate Martin’s criminal conduct is violent and lengthy.[...]

California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation officials said the Board of Parole Hearings denied Martin parole under nonviolent parole review in May 2021, but he was later released in February 2022.

He had entered the state prison system in January 2018 with a 10-year sentence. But CDCR officials said prior to reaching a CDCR facility, Martin had already received 508 days of pre-sentencing credits, and received a variety of additional post-sentencing credits and hence was let go early this year, having served his sentence.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-05/sacramento-shooting-suspect-got-out-of-prison-early-despite-da-opposition

I don’t know that it could really be used against anyone, but it definitely could help Schubert.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

/snip

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-05/sacramento-shooting-suspect-got-out-of-prison-early-despite-da-opposition

I don’t know that it could really be used against anyone, but it definitely could help Schubert.

That's what I was implying

[LDP Everywhere]

It looks like the American Independent Party isn’t doing their usual thing this year of supporting the most right wing Republicans. Anyone know why?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vote for Rick Caruso, Bass is outta luck

[All Along The Watchtower]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

My state senator. Bleh. Glad I won’t be in an abomination of a district that stretches from the Sac metro area to Oregon after this election.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

You can almost track the trajectory of the CAGOP just by their gubernatorial candidates:

2006: Incumbent Governor from Los Angeles
2010: Businesswoman from Silicon Valley
2014: Investment banker from Orange County
2018: Businessman from Orange County
2022: State Sen. from Lassen County

[Mr. Smith]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

You can almost track the trajectory of the CAGOP just by their gubernatorial candidates:

2006: Incumbent Governor from Los Angeles
2010: Businesswoman from Silicon Valley
2014: Investment banker from Orange County
2018: Businessman from Orange County
2022: State Sen. from Lassen County

By the same token for Dems:

2006: State Treasurer from LA..
2010: Former Governor from the Bay Area (East Bay)
2014: Re-Election
2018: Lt. Governor from the Bay Area (SF)
2022: Re-election

So 2026...hmmm, which Bay Area sort will it be this time?

[President Johnson]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

You can almost track the trajectory of the CAGOP just by their gubernatorial candidates:

2006: Incumbent Governor from Los Angeles
2010: Businesswoman from Silicon Valley
2014: Investment banker from Orange County
2018: Businessman from Orange County
2022: State Sen. from Lassen County

By the same token for Dems:

2006: State Treasurer from LA..
2010: Former Governor from the Bay Area (East Bay)
2014: Re-Election
2018: Lt. Governor from the Bay Area (SF)
2022: Re-election

So 2026...hmmm, which Bay Area sort will it be this time?

Eleni Kounalakis, London Breed, Fiona Ma or Rob Bonta?

[Sir Mohamed]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

You can almost track the trajectory of the CAGOP just by their gubernatorial candidates:

2006: Incumbent Governor from Los Angeles
2010: Businesswoman from Silicon Valley
2014: Investment banker from Orange County
2018: Businessman from Orange County
2022: State Sen. from Lassen County

By the same token for Dems:

2006: State Treasurer from LA..
2010: Former Governor from the Bay Area (East Bay)
2014: Re-Election
2018: Lt. Governor from the Bay Area (SF)
2022: Re-election

So 2026...hmmm, which Bay Area sort will it be this time?

Eleni Kounalakis, London Breed, Fiona Ma or Rob Bonta?

Yup, but remove Breed from the list. I think she's more likely to replace DiFi in 2024.