CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Calthrina950]

+15 points for the Democrat, no matter who they may be and no matter who the GOP challenger is. I don't think this is a race, even if it's a strong GOP night overall.

The GOP is dead in the water in CA.

The natural result of their "Southern Strategy," and what they have to look forward to in the future in plenty of other diverse states.

Are you implying that the "Emerging Democratic Majority" is still going to be a reality?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Newsom is a Biden D Gov this is last term thank goodness he is leaving

[smoltchanov]

Newsom is a Biden D Gov this is last term thank goodness he is leaving

What's bad in being "Biden D Gov" IMHO - it's a plus, not minus. The sign that he is sane....

[coloradocowboi]

+15 points for the Democrat, no matter who they may be and no matter who the GOP challenger is. I don't think this is a race, even if it's a strong GOP night overall.

The GOP is dead in the water in CA.

The natural result of their "Southern Strategy," and what they have to look forward to in the future in plenty of other diverse states.

Are you implying that the "Emerging Democratic Majority" is still going to be a reality?

For sure. But it's nuanced. I think in California, the Democratic Party is already fractured into a center-right, pro-business faction and a center-left, social democracy faction and we are honestly far better governed and far better equipped to deal with the challenges of the future than other states. Republicans who have been able to align themselves more with center-right ideology, e.g. Schwarzenegger, Valadao, Poizner, Kim, and so on, have been able to win elections they shouldn't have been able to. Their "brand" aligns more with centrist democrats - pro status quo. The problem is that the national GOP's brand is much worse, pretty much accepted by 2/3 of the population here as outright fascism, and thus toxic.

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

[MT Treasurer]

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

The first paragraph sounds reasonable to me in that any successful R candidate will have to pick off enough dissatisfied/swingy voters from at least one of the two D coalition camps. Not a close follower of CA state politics, but I don't see why Rob Bonta would be particularly vulnerable given that he seems to be the only Dem in the upcoming primaries and his ability to play the race card.

[Roll Roons]

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

This is largely about California, not the country. California is not even really comparable to Virginia or New Jersey. It's far more Democratic and partisan than either.

The only kind of Republican who could possibly have a chance of winning statewide in California is someone who would have to completely divorce themself from the national GOP because the brand is just so toxic in most of the state. And that may well include dropping the Republican label and running as an Independent in all but name, like Poizner did and Schubert is doing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont donate to Cali D's they skipped people on Stimulus checks but this is his last term anyways he is like Arnold Schwarzenegger I supported Arnie was has disagreement with him

Thank goodness


They gave some people 24oo twice 1200 and some nothing at all, why give someone 2 stimulus checks and you could of gave others 600 while we had Federal stimulus

The same with Biden whom is also a DLC D he is the last one and in 28 there won't be anymore Biden

[OSR stands with Israel]

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

This is largely about California, not the country. California is not even really comparable to Virginia or New Jersey. It's far more Democratic and partisan than either.

The only kind of Republican who could possibly have a chance of winning statewide in California is someone who would have to completely divorce themself from the national GOP because the brand is just so toxic in most of the state. And that may well include dropping the Republican label and running as an Independent in all but name, like Poizner did and Schubert is doing.

The issue is the GOP base in CA is the National GOP base so its not really comparable to the situation in the North East at all.


In fact with the exception of Arnold the CA GOP was arguably to the right of the National GOP for the past two decades

[MT Treasurer]

For example, consider how Anne Marie Schubert left the GOP before running statewide or Poizner in 2018. They knew (and ascertained correctly, in Poizner's case) they would be stronger *without* the GOP. That's why Bonta is in serious peril, but Newsom is probably fine... unless he gets an organized challenge from his left. Because it is so diverse and its white population is relatively educated, conservatism is culturally irrelevant here. California's two centers of political gravity are establishment liberalism and grassroots progressivism. For a GOP candidate to win, they have to be able to ally with one of these two forces. That's really difficult to do when your politics is literally anti-diversity, pro cultural homogeneity, and anti-worker lol. That alienates pretty much everyone here except rednecks in the central valley and the most depraved of the wealthy and white in the suburbs.

I don't know about "demographics are destiny" arguments. They are unconvincing to me. But as someone who pays a lot of attention to popular culture, from which politics is always downstream, a political program focused on enriching the wealthy and powerful, being bellicose to other nations, and hostile to social progress of any kind is a terrible product for millennial and Gen Z audiences. The GOP doubles down on it because it turns out their Gen X and Boomer base, but these voters are literally committing mass suicide by unvaccination. They don't seem to be organized, don't have much time on this Earth, and are on what has been in the grand scheme of history the losing side: things not changing. Can the GOP get out of this. Absolutely, but California demonstrates it's not a Sophie's choice at all. Center-right politicians, e.g. Feinstein, and ballot initiatives, e.g. Prop 22, win all the time in California. I'd even say they are slightly more favored than progressives, although Bonta will be a real test of that. So longterm, as the country becomes more culturally like California (and it always does, sorry conservatives, but this is why you should never alienate Hollywood lol), the GOP is gonna have to figure out how to moderate plain and simple or they will become less and less competitive.

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

The first paragraph sounds reasonable to me in that any successful R candidate will have to pick off enough dissatisfied/swingy voters from at least one of the two D coalition camps. Not a close follower of CA state politics, but I don't see why Rob Bonta would be particularly vulnerable given that he seems to be the only Dem in the upcoming primaries and his ability to play the race card.

I don’t think Republicans will win a single statewide race in CA in 2022, but this poster phrased it quite differently than you. Your point that they need to peel off some dissatisfied voters from at least one of the two (and I think there are more than those two) D coalition camps (most likely the former) is definitely valid, but his view is that Republicans need to ally themselves with one of those camps, which I don’t think is a feasible (much less fruitful) strategy at all, even less so when applied to the national level or even other "diverse" states like TX or FL (diverse =/= necessarily trending/voting solidly Democratic!). The CA GOP might adopt some of their rhetoric and make concessions on certain issues pushed by or at least associated with either camp, but they have to carve out their platform/distinct brand to successfully present themselves as an anti-status-quo party (which I do think could be a winning message in CA if held together by a genuine pro-worker, pro-family, multi-racial party 'same-opportunities-for-all' banner). They certainly should be moving away from many excesses of movement conservatism, but there’s a world of difference between that and a Democratic-lite party, especially when it likewise subsumes unbridled cultural liberalism and nanny-state authoritarianism into its platform (I don’t buy that these are winning issues for Democrats, even in CA). Democrats also don’t receive record margins of support from non-white voters in CA because "Republicans demonize Hollywood."

I don’t dislike Elder personally and I think he’s more knowledgeable than people give him credit for, but a major reason why he underperformed generic R was because he was even more out of touch on economic rhetoric than in his support for Trump/Trumpian rhetoric, i.e., the worst possible Republican nominee for CA (with no campaigning/branding skills to make up for it). People were quick to read the CA recall as a sign of the demise of the Republican Party when Ciattarelli and Youngkin both showed that you can compete in a blue state without campaigning like a culturally liberal Democrat or as a Republican who combines the worst traits of Romney and Trump. More importantly, however, CA is just not the trendsetter it was in the 1950s-1990s (this has been borne out by more than a few election cycles now), so extrapolating CA's political shifts to the national level the way coloradocowboi did seems counterproductive and selective.

[coloradocowboi]

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

All I see in this response is condescension covering up a completely non-existent argument for your position lol. The fact remains that the GOP's racist rhetoric lost them California for a generation and will do the same. It's well-established in the peer reviewed lit, which I hold in higher esteem tbh than the cantankerous posts of someone who I've seen be wrong many times in this forum. In Nov of 2012, the GOP held numerous seats in CA that are either Dem or soon-to-be Dem (bye Garcia!) and very diverse, so there's some data for you that backs up my claims. Come back and snark at me when the GOP wins a recall instead of wasting milions of dollars to barely outperform their standard performance in what was otherwise a Republican wave year lol. What other trends could you be talking about besides the results of actual elections lol?

My point is that popular culture, despised as it is by Trumpers, still rules public opinion in CA. And it does elsewhere, but has less power. I remember when people like you made the exact same argument you're making now about gay rights. The thinking was that it was an artifact of liberal America and something that rural and southern states couldn't get behind, ever. And nonetheless,  PRRI recentlly found majority support in nearly every state for legal same-sex marriage. And a wealth of empirical literature links that to television, film, and social media disseminating liberal America's changing values on gay rights to young people across the nation. I never said that Republicans demonizing Hollywood is why anyone votes against the GOP, but rather that their culture war has poisoned their image with young and diverse voters. And that's also well supported by data.

What annoys me the most about responses like this it the accusation that I "live in a bubble." Sorry, I live in Los Angeles, the second biggest city in this country and one of the largest in the world. I spend every day talking about politics with my neighbors and community members, and by the way spent a whole year getting them to vote against the Democratic machine for a no-name, DSA candidate in a wealthy and relatively white city council district. So, I have a pretty good pulse on what they think. And I know it's fashionable here, as elsewhere, to finger wag at urbanites about how they "don't understand normal people" because I admittedly don't understand what motivates white, poor people in Montana to vote for a party that takes from them to give to the rich. But you equally don't understand anything about the normal people I encounter every day, who hate the GOP with a burning passion and everything it stands for, and who came out to vote in the millions, many for the first time, to boot Trump out of office and to rescue our governor from a Republican recall. There are millions of progressives in places like California, most of them working class and not some weird rich college kid caricature that fits your narrative. And there are also millions of center-right people of color who will never vote GOP because it's synonymous with racism. I don't get why this is controversial or confusing for you, when Rick Caruso himself just announced he was becoming a Democrat yesterday for the same rationale I just provided. The GOP brand is toxic anywhere that's young, hip, or diverse, and that's not going to change any time soon. Come to LA and ask why Larry Elder motivated so many progressives to come out to vote when they wouldn't have. It's not because of your fantasy that he was somehow conservative in the wrong way lol.

As you yourself note NJ and VA, where the electorate was older, whiter, and had lower turnout, were good races for the GOP while they got buried in CA. So, it looks like your counterevidence actually just bolsters my point. As the rest of the nation tends toward diversity, the Millennial generation, and higher voter turnout, it will pose challenges to a very unpopular, frankly uncool GOP.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/BrianDahleCA/status/1491268827044540420
Republican State Senator Brian Dahle is in
Hes pretty conservative and reps the most conservative part of the state he's probably gonna be the CA GOP's sacrificial Lamb I don't see Faulconer Cox or Jenner if they run beating him out for a second place in the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doesn't matter Newsom will win anyways

[Unelectable Bystander]

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

All I see in this response is condescension covering up a completely non-existent argument for your position lol. The fact remains that the GOP's racist rhetoric lost them California for a generation and will do the same. It's well-established in the peer reviewed lit, which I hold in higher esteem tbh than the cantankerous posts of someone who I've seen be wrong many times in this forum. In Nov of 2012, the GOP held numerous seats in CA that are either Dem or soon-to-be Dem (bye Garcia!) and very diverse, so there's some data for you that backs up my claims. Come back and snark at me when the GOP wins a recall instead of wasting milions of dollars to barely outperform their standard performance in what was otherwise a Republican wave year lol. What other trends could you be talking about besides the results of actual elections lol?

My point is that popular culture, despised as it is by Trumpers, still rules public opinion in CA. And it does elsewhere, but has less power. I remember when people like you made the exact same argument you're making now about gay rights. The thinking was that it was an artifact of liberal America and something that rural and southern states couldn't get behind, ever. And nonetheless,  PRRI recentlly found majority support in nearly every state for legal same-sex marriage. And a wealth of empirical literature links that to television, film, and social media disseminating liberal America's changing values on gay rights to young people across the nation. I never said that Republicans demonizing Hollywood is why anyone votes against the GOP, but rather that their culture war has poisoned their image with young and diverse voters. And that's also well supported by data.

What annoys me the most about responses like this it the accusation that I "live in a bubble." Sorry, I live in Los Angeles, the second biggest city in this country and one of the largest in the world. I spend every day talking about politics with my neighbors and community members, and by the way spent a whole year getting them to vote against the Democratic machine for a no-name, DSA candidate in a wealthy and relatively white city council district. So, I have a pretty good pulse on what they think. And I know it's fashionable here, as elsewhere, to finger wag at urbanites about how they "don't understand normal people" because I admittedly don't understand what motivates white, poor people in Montana to vote for a party that takes from them to give to the rich. But you equally don't understand anything about the normal people I encounter every day, who hate the GOP with a burning passion and everything it stands for, and who came out to vote in the millions, many for the first time, to boot Trump out of office and to rescue our governor from a Republican recall. There are millions of progressives in places like California, most of them working class and not some weird rich college kid caricature that fits your narrative. And there are also millions of center-right people of color who will never vote GOP because it's synonymous with racism. I don't get why this is controversial or confusing for you, when Rick Caruso himself just announced he was becoming a Democrat yesterday for the same rationale I just provided. The GOP brand is toxic anywhere that's young, hip, or diverse, and that's not going to change any time soon. Come to LA and ask why Larry Elder motivated so many progressives to come out to vote when they wouldn't have. It's not because of your fantasy that he was somehow conservative in the wrong way lol.

As you yourself note NJ and VA, where the electorate was older, whiter, and had lower turnout, were good races for the GOP while they got buried in CA. So, it looks like your counterevidence actually just bolsters my point. As the rest of the nation tends toward diversity, the Millennial generation, and higher voter turnout, it will pose challenges to a very unpopular, frankly uncool GOP.

This is possibly the single most arrogant and condescending thing I’ve read on this forum, perhaps worse than the original post he was commenting on. Get some fresh air!

[coloradocowboi]

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

All I see in this response is condescension covering up a completely non-existent argument for your position lol. The fact remains that the GOP's racist rhetoric lost them California for a generation and will do the same. It's well-established in the peer reviewed lit, which I hold in higher esteem tbh than the cantankerous posts of someone who I've seen be wrong many times in this forum. In Nov of 2012, the GOP held numerous seats in CA that are either Dem or soon-to-be Dem (bye Garcia!) and very diverse, so there's some data for you that backs up my claims. Come back and snark at me when the GOP wins a recall instead of wasting milions of dollars to barely outperform their standard performance in what was otherwise a Republican wave year lol. What other trends could you be talking about besides the results of actual elections lol?

My point is that popular culture, despised as it is by Trumpers, still rules public opinion in CA. And it does elsewhere, but has less power. I remember when people like you made the exact same argument you're making now about gay rights. The thinking was that it was an artifact of liberal America and something that rural and southern states couldn't get behind, ever. And nonetheless,  PRRI recentlly found majority support in nearly every state for legal same-sex marriage. And a wealth of empirical literature links that to television, film, and social media disseminating liberal America's changing values on gay rights to young people across the nation. I never said that Republicans demonizing Hollywood is why anyone votes against the GOP, but rather that their culture war has poisoned their image with young and diverse voters. And that's also well supported by data.

What annoys me the most about responses like this it the accusation that I "live in a bubble." Sorry, I live in Los Angeles, the second biggest city in this country and one of the largest in the world. I spend every day talking about politics with my neighbors and community members, and by the way spent a whole year getting them to vote against the Democratic machine for a no-name, DSA candidate in a wealthy and relatively white city council district. So, I have a pretty good pulse on what they think. And I know it's fashionable here, as elsewhere, to finger wag at urbanites about how they "don't understand normal people" because I admittedly don't understand what motivates white, poor people in Montana to vote for a party that takes from them to give to the rich. But you equally don't understand anything about the normal people I encounter every day, who hate the GOP with a burning passion and everything it stands for, and who came out to vote in the millions, many for the first time, to boot Trump out of office and to rescue our governor from a Republican recall. There are millions of progressives in places like California, most of them working class and not some weird rich college kid caricature that fits your narrative. And there are also millions of center-right people of color who will never vote GOP because it's synonymous with racism. I don't get why this is controversial or confusing for you, when Rick Caruso himself just announced he was becoming a Democrat yesterday for the same rationale I just provided. The GOP brand is toxic anywhere that's young, hip, or diverse, and that's not going to change any time soon. Come to LA and ask why Larry Elder motivated so many progressives to come out to vote when they wouldn't have. It's not because of your fantasy that he was somehow conservative in the wrong way lol.

As you yourself note NJ and VA, where the electorate was older, whiter, and had lower turnout, were good races for the GOP while they got buried in CA. So, it looks like your counterevidence actually just bolsters my point. As the rest of the nation tends toward diversity, the Millennial generation, and higher voter turnout, it will pose challenges to a very unpopular, frankly uncool GOP.

This is possibly the single most arrogant and condescending thing I’ve read on this forum, perhaps worse than the original post he was commenting on. Get some fresh air!

Cool, but whether what I said is "condescending" or not, the GOP is just wasting its time in diverse places like California because most of us perceive them as a party for bigots and know-nothings. Up to y'all to decide whether or not accept that reality. Newsom gonna win by 20+ points either way

[Unelectable Bystander]

What is this, Nov. 7, 2012? The bolded reads like a parody of "emerging Democratic majority" talking points and sounds like something Steve Schmidt and Kyle Kulinski would both (unironically) subscribe to.

Also really hard to take any analysis seriously that labels Dianne Feinstein a "center-right politician." Some people really need to get out of their bubble and actually pay attention to recent political/coalition-related trends rather than having wishful thinking and their personal preferences for what the two parties' coalitions should look like cloud their judgment.

All I see in this response is condescension covering up a completely non-existent argument for your position lol. The fact remains that the GOP's racist rhetoric lost them California for a generation and will do the same. It's well-established in the peer reviewed lit, which I hold in higher esteem tbh than the cantankerous posts of someone who I've seen be wrong many times in this forum. In Nov of 2012, the GOP held numerous seats in CA that are either Dem or soon-to-be Dem (bye Garcia!) and very diverse, so there's some data for you that backs up my claims. Come back and snark at me when the GOP wins a recall instead of wasting milions of dollars to barely outperform their standard performance in what was otherwise a Republican wave year lol. What other trends could you be talking about besides the results of actual elections lol?

My point is that popular culture, despised as it is by Trumpers, still rules public opinion in CA. And it does elsewhere, but has less power. I remember when people like you made the exact same argument you're making now about gay rights. The thinking was that it was an artifact of liberal America and something that rural and southern states couldn't get behind, ever. And nonetheless,  PRRI recentlly found majority support in nearly every state for legal same-sex marriage. And a wealth of empirical literature links that to television, film, and social media disseminating liberal America's changing values on gay rights to young people across the nation. I never said that Republicans demonizing Hollywood is why anyone votes against the GOP, but rather that their culture war has poisoned their image with young and diverse voters. And that's also well supported by data.

What annoys me the most about responses like this it the accusation that I "live in a bubble." Sorry, I live in Los Angeles, the second biggest city in this country and one of the largest in the world. I spend every day talking about politics with my neighbors and community members, and by the way spent a whole year getting them to vote against the Democratic machine for a no-name, DSA candidate in a wealthy and relatively white city council district. So, I have a pretty good pulse on what they think. And I know it's fashionable here, as elsewhere, to finger wag at urbanites about how they "don't understand normal people" because I admittedly don't understand what motivates white, poor people in Montana to vote for a party that takes from them to give to the rich. But you equally don't understand anything about the normal people I encounter every day, who hate the GOP with a burning passion and everything it stands for, and who came out to vote in the millions, many for the first time, to boot Trump out of office and to rescue our governor from a Republican recall. There are millions of progressives in places like California, most of them working class and not some weird rich college kid caricature that fits your narrative. And there are also millions of center-right people of color who will never vote GOP because it's synonymous with racism. I don't get why this is controversial or confusing for you, when Rick Caruso himself just announced he was becoming a Democrat yesterday for the same rationale I just provided. The GOP brand is toxic anywhere that's young, hip, or diverse, and that's not going to change any time soon. Come to LA and ask why Larry Elder motivated so many progressives to come out to vote when they wouldn't have. It's not because of your fantasy that he was somehow conservative in the wrong way lol.

As you yourself note NJ and VA, where the electorate was older, whiter, and had lower turnout, were good races for the GOP while they got buried in CA. So, it looks like your counterevidence actually just bolsters my point. As the rest of the nation tends toward diversity, the Millennial generation, and higher voter turnout, it will pose challenges to a very unpopular, frankly uncool GOP.

This is possibly the single most arrogant and condescending thing I’ve read on this forum, perhaps worse than the original post he was commenting on. Get some fresh air!

Cool, but whether what I said is "condescending" or not, the GOP is just wasting its time in diverse places like California because most of us perceive them as a party for bigots and know-nothings. Up to y'all to decide whether or not accept that reality. Newsom gonna win by 20+ points either way

I have an easy idea, I’ll call you a bigot too. You are clearly intolerant towards those having differing opinions from yourself. Isn’t that the definition of bigotry, and isn’t that an accurate statement? Your bigotry is blinding you from seeing these points but I will make them anyways:

1) Trump does not represent all republicans. Those same diverse people that rejected Trump also voted for a Korean American female republican and a Hispanic male republican. The number of female house republicans multiplied this cycle. The California GOP backed a black man for governor. That doesn’t sound like a racist or a sexist party to me.

2) Nobody cares if the GOP wins the California governor’s mansion and, as far as I’m concerned, it will forever be a lost cause for the GOP because of how many republicans are leaving for Florida and others.

3) Per Gallup, a plurality of Americans and almost an outright majority of Americans currently identify as republican leaning. Per multiple polls, Americans have a higher disapproval rating of the Democratic Party. What you are suggesting is simply untrue on a national scale.

4) Hollywood is one of the most hated institutions in America. It is clearly an asset, not a liability, to oppose institutions that are privileged and wealthy. Republicans should embrace being called the party of stupid people, because it only takes away from them being accused of being the party of wealthy corporations. That is a net benefit.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/BrianDahleCA/status/1491268827044540420
Republican State Senator Brian Dahle is in
Hes pretty conservative and reps the most conservative part of the state he's probably gonna be the CA GOP's sacrificial Lamb I don't see Faulconer Cox or Jenner if they run beating him out for a second place in the primary.

Ugh, first my assemblyman ran in the recall and now my state senator is running in the general. Glad I’ll have Dems at the state level starting next year. Sad to see that I’ll be out of a Dem district in the US House though. Supposedly that’ll be a swing district eventually, but that’s a conversation for another thread.

[DrScholl]

I have an easy idea, I’ll call you a bigot too. You are clearly intolerant towards those having differing opinions from yourself. Isn’t that the definition of bigotry, and isn’t that an accurate statement? Your bigotry is blinding you from seeing these points but I will make them anyways:

1) Trump does not represent all republicans. Those same diverse people that rejected Trump also voted for a Korean American female republican and a Hispanic male republican. The number of female house republicans multiplied this cycle. The California GOP backed a black man for governor. That doesn’t sound like a racist or a sexist party to me.

2) Nobody cares if the GOP wins the California governor’s mansion and, as far as I’m concerned, it will forever be a lost cause for the GOP because of how many republicans are leaving for Florida and others.

3) Per Gallup, a plurality of Americans and almost an outright majority of Americans currently identify as republican leaning. Per multiple polls, Americans have a higher disapproval rating of the Democratic Party. What you are suggesting is simply untrue on a national scale.

4) Hollywood is one of the most hated institutions in America. It is clearly an asset, not a liability, to oppose institutions that are privileged and wealthy. Republicans should embrace being called the party of stupid people, because it only takes away from them being accused of being the party of wealthy corporations. That is a net benefit.

1. From the official party standpoint Trump does represent Republicans and those that don't agree won't get very far in the party. Diversity isn't just backing candidates of color in order to say "I'm not racist", that's just posturing.

3. The proof is in actual results and not polling. Republican extremism has cost them a lot so much to the point where gerrymandering yielded them low results this cycle. All those suburbs they used to rely on to gerrymander with are now a headache for them.

4. The Republican Party is the ultimate institution for the privileged and wealthy. Rhetoric means nothing, it's the policy that counts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Newsom is a DLC Dem but the R party don't have anymore Schwarzenegger's to run, he was the only one to crack the Cali Dem party due to his moderate stance on immigration

Elder would have won but he kept going on Hannity and saying Clarence Thomas stuff against Blks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blks that I know don't like him they tolerate him it's Latinos and whites that like Newsom. People that are rich in Cali, it's the most expensive state to live along with Hawaii

Newsom has the same Approvals as David Ige

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/BrianDahleCA/status/1491268827044540420
Republican State Senator Brian Dahle is in
Hes pretty conservative and reps the most conservative part of the state he's probably gonna be the CA GOP's sacrificial Lamb I don't see Faulconer Cox or Jenner if they run beating him out for a second place in the primary.

I think Dahle's goal is not to win, but to get a leg up in in the eventual race to succeed LaMalfa in Congress.

[LobsterDuck]

John Cox is not running.

I wonder who the GOP unites behind now?

[Rat]

John Cox is not running.

I wonder who the GOP unites behind now?

Faulconer if they want any chance.

[President Johnson]

John Cox is not running.

I wonder who the GOP unites behind now?

Faulconer if they want any chance.

Doubtful. More likely he'd end up like Kashkari in 2014. Newsom would still win by at least 15-17 points, if not closer 20 points since Faulconer wouldn't excite die-hard Trump Republicans. And there are still a bunch of them in a state as big as California.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

John Cox is not running.

I wonder who the GOP unites behind now?

Faulconer if they want any chance.

The only way Faulconer has a chance is if he runs as an NPP candidate. And even then, the best he could hope for would be a 3-4 point win.

Poizner & (possibly) Schubert have shown that the only real avenue for a Republican to have a chance at statewide office is to not run as a Republican.