CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Sbane]

I think early voting is responsible for the current turnout rates. I can’t imagine GOP turnout being higher in Chula Vista than in Huntington Beach after the polls close.

That's not what the map depicts. It is only showing where each party has a turnout advantage. Looks like in most of Southern California the Democrats hold an advantage but it is weakest or even flipped in places with a higher Hispanic population, such as Chula Vista or Santa Ana. White Democrats are turning out just fine, Hispanics ones not so much. Maybe many will show up today. We shall see.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 7,327,713
Dems 3,852,837 (52.6%)
Reps 1,819,002 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,655,874 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (37%) Reps (34%), Ind/Other (25%)

Total ballots returned = 7,757,346
Dems 4,070,655 (52.5%)
Reps 1,931,763 (24.9%)
Ind/Other 1,754,928 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (39%), Reps (36%), Ind/Other (27%)

Gonna steal wbrocks67's thunder for a sec.


Total ballots returned: 8,722,954
Dems 4,509,992 (51.7%)
Reps 2,233,539 (25.6%)
Ind/Other 1,979,423 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (43%), Reps (42%), Ind/Other (30%)

----

Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +26.1.

Total ballots returned = 9,120,304
Dems 4,690,627 (51.4%)
Reps 2,357,031 (25.8%)
Ind/Other 2,072,646 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (45%), Reps (44%), Ind/Other (32%)

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Well, I don’t know that there’s rain anywhere in the state, so at least we don’t have to worry about “rain in NorCal” takes in this thread.

[wbrocks67]

Yay! Exit poll!

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1437833387419516940

Also since its Edison, we can compare to the 2018 Edison exit poll for CA-GOV

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/california

[Oryxslayer]

Yay! Exit poll!

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1437833387419516940

Time to set the clock for 11:01 PM EST, cause that is when it will probably be called. Boston and Cleveland mayors will be more interesting contests tonight.

[Gass3268]

Not a ton of E-Day voters in Orange County in the first three hours:

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1437825737751347205?s=20

[Greedo punched first]

What counties might Elder lose on the replacement question?

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1437545443026739207

Ah, here we go again, my friends! The GOP just doesn't lose elections anymore. And when they do, it's rigged.

This must have been the same illegal voters that cost the orange buffoon the NPV in 2016. B'cause, you know, he didn't lose by 2.9 million to HRC.

Lmao, Republicans Trumpicans are such pathetic losers.

They should do some soul searching and try to convince people with rational arguments instead of crying foul and passing voter supression laws in other states.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Let's gooooo JOHN DRAKE

vote SUBMISSIVE AND BREEDABLE

[Canis]

What counties might Elder lose on the replacement question?

Possibly San Diego to Faulconer, the bluest counties in the bay area to Paffrath or another D, and Kiley has a good chance at winning at least one of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Placer.

Besides those Elder should sweep the rest of the state.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1437545443026739207

I seem to remember reading somewhere that it’s illegal to spread misinformation about the date of an election.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

What counties might Elder lose on the replacement question?

Possibly San Diego to Faulconer, the bluest counties in the bay area to Paffrath or another D, and Kiley has a good chance at winning at least one of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Placer.

Besides those Elder should sweep the rest of the state.

Idk about Kiley’s chances in those counties, but they’re definitely the ones to watch to see how he does. I would be interested to see if he wins his assembly district area (idk if that’ll have to be calculated manually or if it will be in the statement of vote or something when it’s certified).

[Real Texan Politics]

In case no one's mentioned it already, polls close at 8pm PST (aka 9pm MST, 10pm CST, and 11pm EST).

I doubt people in the EST will know the winner by midnight, but what time in PST should we expect a call to be made?

[Хahar 🤔]

In case no one's mentioned it already, polls close at 8pm PST (aka 9pm MST, 10pm CST, and 11pm EST).

I doubt people in the EST will know the winner by midnight, but what time in PST should we expect a call to be made?

8 PM PDT, not 8 PM PST.

[Gass3268]

In case no one's mentioned it already, polls close at 8pm PST (aka 9pm MST, 10pm CST, and 11pm EST).

I doubt people in the EST will know the winner by midnight, but what time in PST should we expect a call to be made?

They have an exit poll, they will be able to make a call at poll closing time, unless they are extremely cautious.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/OCRegistrar/status/1437869940200153097

(as of about 1:00 PT) Looks like terrible ED turnout in OC.

[BoiseBoy]

Here are a few links I've found for results when polls close.

NBC

Washington Post

NBC-7 San Diego

I hope we'll get an NYT or Politico page up as well.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

/snip
(as of about 1:00 PT) Looks like terrible ED turnout in OC.

This doesn't surprise me at all. In-person voting was never gonna be a significant factor, especially when everyone is mailed a ballot and off-year elections here always have pathetic in-person turnout.

Hell, I didn't even know there was gonna be in-person voting until a week ago. And I live in California!

[Oryxslayer]

/snip
(as of about 1:00 PT) Looks like terrible ED turnout in OC.

This doesn't surprise me at all. In-person voting was never gonna be a significant factor, especially in an off-year election when everyone is mailed a ballot

Like I said, expect 75% or more of the vote to be mail or other pre-election forms tracked by the PoliticalData numbers.

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s not count our chickens before they hatch.
Even if we win the recall, it will likely be by an embarrassing margin. Let’s wait and see…

[soundchaser]

Let’s not count our chickens before they hatch.
Even if we win the recall, it will likely be by an embarrassing margin. Let’s wait and see…

What would you consider "an embarrassing margin"? Anything under 10%? 15%?

[wbrocks67]

Let’s not count our chickens before they hatch.
Even if we win the recall, it will likely be by an embarrassing margin. Let’s wait and see…

going to bookmark this b/c this take is looking really bad

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was such a waste of money by Rs

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

[wbrocks67]

I'm going to assume Indies, however, are more likely to break 50/50 this time around, instead of Newsom's 53/46 in 2018 or Biden's +22 in 2020.