Pasco County (FL) - St. Pete Polls: Trump +17

[Roronoa D. Law]

Eh...a 4% swing to Biden is OK, I guess, but pretty weak compared to the swings we’ve seen in other district polls, which are very often double digits.

IIRC, Pasco is a very Trumpy place. Not hard to imagine that Biden barely makes any headway here.

Exurban areas like Pasco are the core of Trumpism in FL, not the rural areas.

Because of the legacy of segregation, most of the WWC neighborhoods in the sunbelt are mostly exurban areas. They can't afford to live in places like Alpharetta and East Cobb and don't want to live in minority heavy neighborhoods like Norcross and Riverdale.

[kireev]

Scott won this county by 15 points and still managed to win in 2018. However, the sample looks somewhat GOP-friendly because it's just way too white. 90% of the respondents are white, 2.5% black and 3% Hispanic. In 2019 6.7% of the population of Pasco county were black, 16.5% Hispanic and 72.7% non-Hispanic whites.  I would say blacks should be around 6% of the electorate there, Hispanic around 10%, white around 80%.

[krb08]

I'm a Pasco resident and personally, I don't know what to make of this result. Pasco is a very Trump-friendly county, but it saw one of the largest swings left of any county in FL between 2016 and the 2018 races. The margin in this poll actually represents a rightward swing from 2018.

Yes, it's four points left from 2016, but with the margin Biden is leading by nationwide, I'd expect Trump up by just 12-15. But who knows, St. Pete Polls isn't the most reliable pollster out there. Cool to get a poll of my county anyway.

[krb08]

Scott won this county by 15 points and still managed to win in 2018. However, the sample looks somewhat GOP-friendly because it's just way too white. 90% of the respondents are white, 2.5% black and 3% Hispanic. In 2019 6.7% of the population of Pasco county were black, 16.5% Hispanic and 72.7% non-Hispanic whites.  I would say blacks should be around 6% of the electorate there, Hispanic around 10%, white around 80%.

That's ridiculous, didn't even see that. Doesn't look like they weighted for it. Pasco is 27% nonwhite and this poll is only 10% nonwhite? That's a pretty big deal...

[Biden his time]

How did Pasco County, Florida actually vote?


2016 Presidential: R+21.35, Raw Vote Margin 51,959
142,101 (58.41%) Trump, 90,142 (37.06%) Clinton, 11,022 (4.53%) Neither

2020 Presidential: R+20.01, Raw Vote Margin 60,548
179,621 (59.36%) Trump, 119,073 (39.35%) Biden, 3,927 (1.29%) Neither

[One Term Floridian]

Remember that the 2018 results here for Senate, Governor, and Agricultural Commissioner were R+15, R+16, and R+14 respectively.

In that case, this is a decent poll for Biden. He will likely do much better than Gillum or Nelson in Miami-Dade, while roughly matching their numbers in the rest of the state.

We were so innocent back then

[Young Conservative]

How did Pasco County, Florida actually vote?


2016 Presidential: R+21.35, Raw Vote Margin 51,959
142,101 (58.41%) Trump, 90,142 (37.06%) Clinton, 11,022 (4.53%) Neither

2020 Presidential: R+20.01, Raw Vote Margin 60,548
179,621 (59.36%) Trump, 119,073 (39.35%) Biden, 3,927 (1.29%) Neither

Pasco County 2020
59.3% Trump
39.3% Biden
R+20

A swing of a little over 1 point to the left, but Trump netted almost 10k more votes here than in 2016 because of turnout.

[Mr.Phips]

Trends in counties like this, as well as Hernando and Volusia, are why it’s so hard for Dems to win in Florida. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trends in counties like this, as well as Hernando and Volusia, are why it’s so hard for Dems to win in Florida. 

Florida, politically speaking, pulls more from Ohio than from New Jersey.
Central Florida especially has a huge presence of MW transplants.

[lfromnj]

Trends in counties like this, as well as Hernando and Volusia, are why it’s so hard for Dems to win in Florida. 

Florida, politically speaking, pulls more from Ohio than from New Jersey.
Central Florida especially has a huge presence of MW transplants.

Look at Montgomery County Ohio and Pinellas FL for a remarkable pattern.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trends in counties like this, as well as Hernando and Volusia, are why it’s so hard for Dems to win in Florida. 

Florida, politically speaking, pulls more from Ohio than from New Jersey.
Central Florida especially has a huge presence of MW transplants.

Look at Montgomery County Ohio and Pinellas FL for a remarkable pattern.

Interesting.
Great find!