The thing that is fueling Republican success right now is not necessarily race, although we know they are eroding like mad there as well.
It is age. Republicans currently have in the "currently alive and voting demographic" two nice little cohorts of voters.
They are the Silents, who were born from 1928-1945. Especially among voters, the 1935-1945 demo is very strong for Republicans, as these are the people who were came of age with Ike, the red scares of the 50's, and got lots of anti-communist indoctrination. These are the folks that are SO SCARED of socialism.
The other fun living demo the Republicans have are late Baby Boomers and early Gen X, the Silents children. These folks were born from about 1960-1972 and came of age with Reagan. In their peak earning years, they were handily indoctrinated by their parents and by the greatest actor-president of all time.
Republicans are feeding off the fact that the Greatest Generation is nearly gone. These people and those immediately older were exposed to the liberal world of the Roaring 20's, the economic pain of the 1930's, and the can-do spirit of World War II. They came up with FDR and Truman and loved them.
For me, Betty Ford always kind of exemplified this era for me. These people talked sex in 1940 and in 1975 with their children, because they were more liberal than the canned hams that came after them. (See Carson, Johnny and Hefner, Hugh)
So now that all of these cool Greatest are gone, we got a bunch of crotchety "new" olds and a bunch of risk-averse, now-boring middle aged people who like to drone about taxes and "freedumb" like Kavanaugh, Brett (See Porky's)
The only saving graces of our country are the Older Boomers (1946-1958) who saw how badly Nixon screwed up, and their children, the Millennials. But once the Silents go completely Silent, the illusory power the Republicans hold will become increasingly clear...
...and then there's the Zoomers! Seriously is anyone under 40 a Republican?
Not that I know of? Cause the Republicans have been worthless and screwed up world since the GW days...when you come of age with that level of failing, it's hard to fall for their propaganda.
GW was, as you note, the fall of the GOP not Trump. That's when the deplorables started migrating en masse to the GOP and it was no longer a party that suited the suburbs. Trump is just the endpoint of that transition.
I doubt GW would have won the popular vote in 2004 if it weren't for 9/11.
