NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[n1240]

Seems like Garcia is extremely likely to win considering the issue with the results produced by the BOE yesterday didn't really affect the late round preference flows that much, only erroneously added a bunch of single preference votes to all of the candidates. Garcia needs to win the last round absentee vote by 8-10%, depending on absentee rejection rate and how many election day/provisional votes have not yet been tabulated, which seems pretty easy based on how well Garcia did in the early vote. Based on the preference flows, here is roughly how the election day and early vote last round went:

Election Day:

Adams 53.1%
Garcia 46.9%
Non-Exhausted votes: ~525k

Early Vote:

Garcia 56.6%
Adams 43.3%
Non-Exhausted votes: ~165k

So essentially the case for Adams winning now seems to be that he does better relative to Garcia on absentee votes than the early vote.

For anyone interested and can't find the early vote data, here are the numbers I used for early vote from taking the results from the BOE page shortly after polls closed, thus assuming all of these votes were just early votes.

[n1240]

Dave is trying really hard to compensate for the fact that he thought Adams was going to win.

Seems to me that Dave is analyzing the data he has in front of him as well as ever. Not his fault the NYC BOE is such a clusterf—k. And Adams very well still could win. Anyone who says otherwise based on some extremely faulty and erroneously released data is kidding themselves.

Correct me if I'm wrong though, but wasn't the missing Bronx data included in yesterday's erroneous dump?

There was 142k ballots added. 135k were the dummy test ones, and 7K were reportedly those missing Bronx votes. So technically weren't they already added yesterday?

Not sure if it was mentioned in this thread yet, but the erroneous test votes lined up very well with ballot order, here were the new round one votes received in the report produced yesterday by ballot order:

Foldenauer: 2492
Morales: 3171
Stringer: 4356
McGuire: 5002
Wiley: 9633
Prince: 7043
Chang: 8282
Garcia: 11633
Adams: 17598
Wright: 11616
Donovan: 13190
Yang: 16550
Taylor: 15079
Write-in: 16180

The only four out of the place are the candidates who received more than 10% of the vote overall, so it seems plausible that they were adding thousands of votes to each candidate in the test data, incrementing by a thousand going downwards in ballot order, so it makes sense there were a number of actual votes added to the total, with Adams doing the best which makes sense considering the votes were probably disproportionally from Bronx