Do we have any idea what coalitions the candidates have locked down for sure? I understand it's early, but are there are any voting blocs that are unlikely to change who they're backing?
I have no knowledge of voter preferences on the ground, but I'm extremely confident Yang will win East/Southeast Asian voters. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic slump have probably handed him the nomination at this point.
Yang, Wiley, Morales, and maybe Menchaca.
I have the same top three and am also going for Yang desite understanding the criticisms of him, lol. (I actually live in Queens now, need to change my voter registration to the city) Heavy backing for Yang amongst my Asian-American friends here in NYC, even amongst the leftist types who were Bernie backers in 2020.
This post describes me pretty well aside from the "not strongly engaged" part.
Don't forget the young people who have positive impressions of Yang as a candidate from 2020 (and don't know much about the other candidates) and are not aware that he's one of the right wing candidates in this race. Despairing of that message breaking through before June.
Not talking about activist types here, just a bunch of people who were for Bernie or Warren but not strongly engaged in the political process. They should be a weak flank of the current Yang coalition but doesn't seem to be much movement there. I see a lot of them anecdotally.
Got any thoughts on Yang hate? I admit I am more inclined to support him because he is Asian, but I do think he'd be a more positive, competent and imaginative leader than the rest of the field. However I do think some of the criticisms of him, such as his presidential campaign's bro culture and that bad op-ed about Asian Americans having to prove their American-ness are legitimate. But they seem incommensurate with the level of hatred that he garners from twitter and heavily online people.
edit: Also don't think any of the criticism of him is racially motivated, which is good?
