NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[SInNYC]

Whether or not UBI makes sense at a national level, it has no bearing on whether it can or should be done at a city level. Cities (or states) have this thing called a budget, and also probably cant legally prevent benefits going to out-of-towners moving in.

Back to the original question, no love for Stringer here?

[SInNYC]

https://twitter.com/patkiernan/status/1384110763883696134

The details here are pretty interesting. People's choices dont seem to be particularly driven by ideology.

Morales voters go to Wiley-Adams/Yang-Mcguire/Stringer in that order, though roundoff error means it could be just a split but with a dispreference for Stringer.
Mcguire voters are  split between Adams, Stringer, and Yang.
Similarly Adams voters spit between Stringer and Yang.

[SInNYC]

https://twitter.com/patkiernan/status/1384110763883696134

The details here are pretty interesting. People's choices don't seem to be particularly driven by ideology.

Morales voters go to Wiley-Adams/Yang-McGuire/Stringer in that order, though roundoff error means it could be just a split but with a distinct preference for Stringer.
McGuire voters are  split between Adams, Stringer, and Yang.
Similarly Adams voters spit between Stringer and Yang.

That's not terribly surprising. People are still learning a lot about candidates and average voters don't differentiate the candidates to the degree that we on this site do.

But also some people have focus on things beyond ideology that matter. Like if I was an NYC voter I would definitely want a Mayor that's ready on Day 1 and my top 2 would be Garcia and Stringer, even though Garcia is considered to be much less progressive than Stringer (I'd disagree a little on that but that's not too important).

Also there's plenty of cases picking candidates of the same geography (some Progressive Brooklynites may be going for Adams just because) and of course same race (it's getting pretty obvious that many Asian New Yorkers like Yang for representational reasons)

I said "dispreference", not "distinct preference". Is there a reason why you changed it?

[SInNYC]

Donovan's ads basically say that he worked for Obama, and say nothing of substance - he was in my top 5 but even I found his campaign mindless.

He also has a scandal where his father is running a large PAC for him, though I'm not sure how much this is really hurting him. Since the campaign finance board determined that his father's PAC was not coordinated with his campaign, he was still eligible for NYC's very generous matching funds.

[SInNYC]

In an interview, the candidates was asked what the median price of a home in Brooklyn was, and some of the answers were completely disqualifying: https://www.newsweek.com/nyc-mayor-candidates-shaun-donovan-ray-mcguire-think-average-brooklyn-home-costs-100k-1590464

Correct answer: $900k

Wiley: $1.8 million
Stringer: $1 million
Yang: $900k
Garcia: $800k
Adams: $550k
Morales: $500k
Donovan: $100k
McGuire: $90k

IMHO, McGuire and Donovan are the only answers that are disqualifying. Donovan was HUD secretary??

Stringer, Yang and Garcia of course are best, though Yang probably just got lucky in getting closest.

I dont consider Adams and Morales disqualifying since its quite possible that the median 1-2 BR coop price is around 500-600K, while the average is weighted by single family houses.

Wiley probably thinks Brooklyn means  Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights, but many Manhattanites do.

[SInNYC]

In an interview, the candidates was asked what the median price of a home in Brooklyn was, and some of the answers were completely disqualifying: https://www.newsweek.com/nyc-mayor-candidates-shaun-donovan-ray-mcguire-think-average-brooklyn-home-costs-100k-1590464

Correct answer: $900k

Wiley: $1.8 million
Stringer: $1 million
Yang: $900k
Garcia: $800k
Adams: $550k
Morales: $500k
Donovan: $100k
McGuire: $90k

IMHO, McGuire and Donovan are the only answers that are disqualifying. Donovan was HUD secretary??

Stringer, Yang and Garcia of course are best, though Yang probably just got lucky in getting closest.

I dont consider Adams and Morales disqualifying since its quite possible that the median 1-2 BR coop price is around 500-600K, while the average is weighted by single family houses.

Wiley probably thinks Brooklyn means  Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights, but many Manhattanites do.

Yang actually is rather good on this stuff, surprise surprise that the math candidate can easily memorize the numbers that a staffer probably presented to him at one point:

I didnt know this tweet, but he thinks exactly like me as this is probably exactly how I would have answered. Maybe that makes him my safety vote (ie, 5th on preferences, over Adama/Mcguire/etc).

On a related note, does anybody have suggestions on how to vote in NYC's version of IRV? I've been thinking that my 5th place vote should be the least objectionable of the popular candidates. Is there a better strategy?

[SInNYC]

I am back with Stringer (probably behind Morales), unless something more turns up. What we know (according to both parties) is that the two were involved somehow. He was around 40 and she was in her early 30s working on his campaign, both single. Clearly, Stringer felt that they had something while she wasnt into him. There is some question about whether the two were involved before (possibly much before) the campaign when both were in the local D groups, as others have claimed that the two were casually involved. Its possible that she felt they were just flirting in a bar, while he felt that they had potential.

I'm not going to throw out Stringer based on this. Now if there were a good alternative, I would probably vote for that over Stringer just in case there is more evidence that comes out later, whether to make him a predator or even just to detract from his performance as mayor.

[SInNYC]

I am back with Stringer (probably behind Morales), unless something more turns up. What we know (according to both parties) is that the two were involved somehow. He was around 40 and she was in her early 30s working on his campaign, both single. Clearly, Stringer felt that they had something while she wasnt into him. There is some question about whether the two were involved before (possibly much before) the campaign when both were in the local D groups, as others have claimed that the two were casually involved. Its possible that she felt they were just flirting in a bar, while he felt that they had potential.

I'm not going to throw out Stringer based on this. Now if there were a good alternative, I would probably vote for that over Stringer just in case there is more evidence that comes out later, whether to make him a predator or even just to detract from his performance as mayor.

I mean, she’s accused him of groping her.  The allegation isn’t that he was flirting in a bar, it’s that he committed sexual assault.

The flirting sentence was referring to any prior relationship they may or may not have had, not the accusation.

[SInNYC]

The rankings on this as well as other polls is interesting in that there always seems to be a heavy gender identity factor - ie, people who vote female one round have a strong tendency to vote female in the next round regardless of ideology, and a smaller version for males.

I also dont understand the Wiley-Mcguire movement, which makes no sense to me since its neither identity nor ideology based.

[SInNYC]

https://twitter.com/emilyngo/status/1395812842201354243

And this is precisely why Trump and his allies are able to spread lies about elections. Incompetence and taking forever to get results makes people think that something is wrong with the process.

F**k it. Biden should declare martial law against the state of New York. I'm serious. If they don't get their s**t together? That's how the Capitol gets stormed again.

There are two big sources of delays here: 1) you get 7 days after the election for your absentee ballot to arrive, and 2) you get 10 days to cure your ballot. Which are you suggesting they get rid of?

Now if they were to spend forever getting the RCV results out after the above delays, thats a completely different story.

[SInNYC]

I honestly dont see the Garcia hype. She seems to be a pure manager, without much of a vision or sense of direction. Although ads dont mean much to me in general, her ads are content free and basically say you need to break glass to get something done (without making it about gender, explicitly at least).

But I guess in a race where none of the top candidates have really shown much vision, a good manager is OK. And in fairness, many past mayoral races have been about assembling a mix of demographics that gets to 50% rather than anything of substance.

[SInNYC]

This is my summary of the candidates:

Adams: demagogue, who knows what he will do
Yang: an Asian Bloomberg, seems like a nice guy. Also seems intelligent
Garcia: a Democratic Bloomberg, might be a decent manager
Wiley: a centrist who talks left, probably not as conservative as the above 3
Stringer: capable, but with serious harassment issues
Morales: progressive but no evidence that she can run anything, or walks the talk
Donovan: did you know he worked for Obama?
And the million dollar question: Will governor Cuomo let any of the above do anything?

And on the Republican side, we have
Silwa: guardian angel, enuf said
Mateo: Trumpster, probably as corrupt as Trump too.

Who is a person to vote for?

[SInNYC]

1) Wiley (meh)
2) Morales (ugh, placeholder to rank all 5 spots)
3) Stringer (ugh)
4) Garcia (strongly dislike her, but to stop Adams)
5) Yang (very strongly dislike him, to stop Adams)

Might put in someone else in the Morales spot. Not very happy with any of the candidates this go around but stopping Adams from becoming mayor is the priority.

Bragg for DA to try to stop Weinstein, wouldn’t be my first choice if it was RCV though.
Jumaane for advocate, Lander for Comptroller. Haven’t decided my council vote but Carlina Rivera will win in a landslide so doesn’t matter.
Manhattan BP maybe Hoylman? Have to do a bit more research on that before I vote.

Thats exactly where I am right now on mayor, including the uggh feelings, though I might swap Yang and Garcia. Right now, I think the 1-3 and 4-5 tiers are set for me, but the position within the tiers is up in the air. I'm normally pretty sure on my rankings of candidates (even without RCV), so this uncertainty reflects how truly horrid this set of candidates is.

I really really really wish I were in Manhattan just so that I could vote against Weinstein after her recent atack ad against Bragg and Quart, an ad that tries hard to not even mention her name (other than a small lo-contrast font 'new yorkers for tali' at the end, in the TV version at least).  

My ranking for comptroller is:
1 Lander
2 Corey Johnson
3 Weprin? Not sure.
4-5 Undecided, probably blank, or rank Lander 1-3 just to feel good
Probably not: Patel, Iscol
No way: Caruso-Cabrera (grifter vibes, unqualified)

[SInNYC]

Have a feeling Wiley’s momentum has faded / not gone high enough initially. The buzz just doesn’t seem to be there.

Going to be closely watching the Council elections as I’ve sort of given up on the mayors race. If we get a decently progressive council it could maybe mitigate the worst of Adams or Garcia.

My reason for ranking Yang over Garcia (in 4th/5th) is that I see him as more pliable to the Council. Garcia knows what she wants to do, which is to be a visionless technocrat listening to whatever the "experts" (ie, lobbyists) tell her.  Yang's lack of experience may make him do whatever the council wants, especially since I think his heart is in the right place.

[SInNYC]

YANG OUT

https://twitter.com/AlexMillerNews/status/1407531062591381510

Yang for Governor.

I don't think he's that stupid, politically speaking.

Go home, re-launch Venture for America, work on the podcast/probably launch a Youtube or Twitch channel, get a book deal on campaigning, spend some time with the kids and wife.

I think the earliest we'll see him again, if ever, is after 2024. I think he fully understands now that the center-left/technocrat politics just isn't popular enough yet is past its days in America.

fixed it for you

[SInNYC]

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

If I'm not misreading it somehow, there is at least one error in their mayoral simulation - in round 5 they eliminate Stringer instead of Donovan even though Stringer is higher.

While this is unlikely to affect the results of their simulation, it does call into question their entire results if they make such an obvious error.

[SInNYC]

I have no idea why they decided to release the result this way.  It seems to me they should first
a) count the absentee ballots once all of them are cured and then release the combined first round results then
b) do the round by round RCV and then release the results

it is not clear that the sequence of candidates being eliminated would be same once you add in the absentee ballots so this entire exercise  is a waste of time

I agree. They should have waited until after the curing deadline and only released RCV results the week of Jul 12.

However, people who dont understand the reason for the delay would be yammering away about how it takes so long to count.

[SInNYC]

Well, Adams was neither my first nor second choice, but he certainly hit a nerve with his message on crime. Seems like after eight years of the more left leaning DeBlasio, New Yorkers want to return to the days of Bloomberg in a sense.

BDB essentially endorsed Adams, though he didnt make a formal endorsement. Adams voters saw what they wanted to see in Adams, and it wasnt really ideological. Blacks saw someone who fought dirty cops (which is somewhat true). The Hispanic vote split (no major candidate was Latino). Adams got crucial endorsements from orthodox rabbis. Adams also had backing from major establishment figures.  I thought he had the best ads too.

I would like to see polling data, but I suspect Bloomberg fans voted for Mcguire and Yang.