NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I don't think Andrew Yang will realistically win, but I haven't really been following this race. Hopefully he does well.

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1350526053484277764

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Do we have any idea what coalitions the candidates have locked down for sure? I understand it's early, but are there are any voting blocs that are unlikely to change who they're backing?

I have no knowledge of voter preferences on the ground, but I'm extremely confident Yang will win East/Southeast Asian voters. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic slump have probably handed him the nomination at this point.

Yang, Wiley, Morales, and maybe Menchaca.

I have the same top three and am also going for Yang desite understanding the criticisms of him, lol. (I actually live in Queens now, need to change my voter registration to the city) Heavy backing for Yang amongst my Asian-American friends here in NYC, even amongst the leftist types who were Bernie backers in 2020.

This post describes me pretty well aside from the "not strongly engaged" part.

Don't forget the young people who have positive impressions of Yang as a candidate from 2020 (and don't know much about the other candidates) and are not aware that he's one of the right wing candidates in this race. Despairing of that message breaking through before June.

Not talking about activist types here, just a bunch of people who were for Bernie or Warren but not strongly engaged in the political process. They should be a weak flank of the current Yang coalition but doesn't seem to be much movement there. I see a lot of them anecdotally.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Do we have any idea what coalitions the candidates have locked down for sure? I understand it's early, but are there are any voting blocs that are unlikely to change who they're backing?

I have no knowledge of voter preferences on the ground, but I'm extremely confident Yang will win East/Southeast Asian voters. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic slump have probably handed him the nomination at this point.

Yang, Wiley, Morales, and maybe Menchaca.

I have the same top three and am also going for Yang desite understanding the criticisms of him, lol. (I actually live in Queens now, need to change my voter registration to the city) Heavy backing for Yang amongst my Asian-American friends here in NYC, even amongst the leftist types who were Bernie backers in 2020.

This post describes me pretty well aside from the "not strongly engaged" part.

Don't forget the young people who have positive impressions of Yang as a candidate from 2020 (and don't know much about the other candidates) and are not aware that he's one of the right wing candidates in this race. Despairing of that message breaking through before June.

Not talking about activist types here, just a bunch of people who were for Bernie or Warren but not strongly engaged in the political process. They should be a weak flank of the current Yang coalition but doesn't seem to be much movement there. I see a lot of them anecdotally.

Got any thoughts on Yang hate? I admit I am more inclined to support him because he is Asian, but I do think he'd be a more positive, competent and imaginative leader than the rest of the field. However I do think some of the criticisms of him, such as his presidential campaign's bro culture and that bad op-ed about Asian Americans having to prove their American-ness are legitimate. But they seem incommensurate with the level of hatred that he garners from twitter and heavily online people.

edit: Also don't think any of the criticism of him is racially motivated, which is good?

Reminds me of the VP hate on Atlas, although I think the Kamala hate on here was a bit more rooted in her race and gender. Some of the Yang hate might be racially/ethnically motivated (not really on Twitter so I can't assess that front), but I don't think it's a factor on Atlas. I get (and kind of agree with) what he was trying to say in that op-ed, but yeah it wasn't going to jive well with Asian Americans who've experienced more overt racism and bullying from non-Asians.

He would definitely be a more positive and competent leader than the 2016 GOP presidential primary candidate his campaign is reminiscent of (not that that means much). Haven't been following the race super closely, but I don't think the support he's garnered from landlords says as much about how his adminstration would go as people are suggesting.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Me: Andrew Yang is not terrible

Everyone Else on this forum: So you have chosen death

This feels a lot like the 2020 primaries in how vocally anti-Biden the “progressive establishment” Atlas hivemind was. As with last year, I’m *supporting* a candidate even though I broadly agree with the criticisms of them because I don’t see how the alternatives are better.

Yang supporters: this is worth a read. He’s a mayoral candidate, not your based God-Emperor.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Yang is going to have the near unanimous block vote of Asians and Orthodox Jews (see Tweet above). Not sure a couple of newspaper endorsements are going to be able to stop him.

This is not clear at all re: Asians. Polling has not shown a unanimity. He has the support of major figures in the Fujianese and Taiwanese communities, and some backing in the Korean community as well. None of that in the Bangladeshi or Nepalese communities.
I agree with Bronz - Adams has a solid shot.

Scoop: Dianne Morales's campaign does not use VAN for some reason lol

What about non-Chinatown Chinese, Filipinos, Indians, Vietnamese, etc? I doubt any of them vote nearly as much as a bloc as the communities you listed, but the impression I've gotten from other posters is that those groups are also leaning towards Yang due to being younger and more likely to be 1.5+ gen transplants. I really can't see Millennial transplants as a whole preferring Adams to Yang in a 2-way matchup.

I don't have any skin in the game, and I don't think Adams would be that bad either. But I generally prefer more socially liberal and culturally cosmopolitan candidates, and Adams reminds me of the things I didn't like about Biden.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Yang is going to have the near unanimous block vote of Asians and Orthodox Jews (see Tweet above). Not sure a couple of newspaper endorsements are going to be able to stop him.

This is not clear at all re: Asians. Polling has not shown a unanimity. He has the support of major figures in the Fujianese and Taiwanese communities, and some backing in the Korean community as well. None of that in the Bangladeshi or Nepalese communities.
I agree with Bronz - Adams has a solid shot.

Scoop: Dianne Morales's campaign does not use VAN for some reason lol

What about non-Chinatown Chinese, Filipinos, Indians, Vietnamese, etc? I doubt any of them vote nearly as much as a bloc as the communities you listed, but the impression I've gotten from other posters is that those groups are also leaning towards Yang due to being younger and more likely to be 1.5+ gen transplants. I really can't see Millennial transplants as a whole preferring Adams to Yang in a 2-way matchup.

I don't have any skin in the game, and I don't think Adams would be that bad either. But I generally prefer more socially liberal and culturally cosmopolitan candidates, and Adams reminds me of the things I didn't like about Biden.

I don't think the Viet community (mostly up in the Bronx, pretty poor) really fits in with your description.
None of these communities vote as a bloc (friends of mine have put out a massive AAPIAgainstYang letter), but institutional support does carry weight with primary voters (remember this election is going to have like 30% turnout max).

I would know, I posted a link to that letter in this thread and encouraged everyone to read it.

I guess the transplant Asian types I had in mind would be more likely to be in more diverse parts Brooklyn and Queens.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Viet restaurant in Brooklyn

Filipino restaurant in Manhattan

Khmer "bodega" (lmao) in the Bronx

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Interesting how Change's Post-NYT endorsement RCV simulation has Yang and Adams tied for the 7th through 10th rounds. Guess a 50-50 split is better than 53 Adam-47 Yang?

I'm really curious what the crosstabs look like.

Adams Strongest Among African Americans; Yang’s Support Is Broader

While Adams is in the top four among all major racial and ethnic groups, his lead is due primarily to his strength among African American voters: 41% plan to rank him first.

Andrew Yang, meanwhile, is the first choice of 34% of Asian American voters -- higher than his support among any other major demographic group. But he is in first or second place among nearly all gender, age, and racial/ethnic groups, and in all five boroughs.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Opening Statements Summarized

Dianne Morales: "I'm ready to be Mayor" (lol), choose the future.
Andrew Yang: I'm not connected to the city machines, hopeful, optimistic, big change
Scott Stringer: I've been here a while, seen the issues, lost my mom to COVID. NY is resilient and tough, and I know the issues.
Kathryn Garcia: I'm the crisis manager, I delivered meals, plowed the streets, pumped the water during Sandy. Make NYC livable for everyone. Oh by the way I was endorsed by the New York Times.
Eric Adams: We're in a crisis, I've been here in New York forever, I've been struggling and fighting for our city at every level.
Maya Wiley: "I am Maya Wiley." I'm a civil rights advocate, time to challenge inequality, make things better. End police violence, I'm a mom, won't accept ongoing police violence. First Mom Mayor.
Ray McGuire: "Relentless" recovery. I'll turn things around, I'm an outsider, not connected to the machines. I'll get things done.
Shaun Donovan: Time to rebuild. I have experience rebuilding our city. Obama trusted me after the Great Recession, and leading the recovery from Hurricane Sandy. I "have bold ideas and a track record to make those ideals real"

Huh, I didn’t know Stringer’s mom passed away from COVID. Really sorry for his loss, I’m tempted to list him just above Adams on my imaginary RCV ballot now.

Black and Asians don't get along in NYC, Yang will HAVE to address that

The NYPD hasn’t been all that proactive about preventing hate crimes. Adams will HAVE to address that

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I liked Wiley, she took on Adams the most and was effective, but I still think she's an out of touch pundit. Stringer would be so great if he wasn't so compromised. As for Garcia, the good is just accompanied by a lot of bad. Morales remains completely unqualified and unprepared and terminally online.

Wiley gives me Elizabeth Warren vibes for some reason. Is it just me?

Yeah I got major Warren vibes from her self-introduction. It’s mostly what her voice sounds like.

I thought she and Yang made really good points about excessive regulations for small business  owners/restaurant owners/vendors.

Yang also made a solid point (right before the 1 hour mark) on how effective governance requires coordination with non-government actors and more broadly civil society in general. There's a bunch of important issues that require more than just government action. Climate change is a good example of this- the political will to implement the infrastructure reforms and consumer/behavioral incentives we need to mitigate and adapt just... doesn’t exist right now, ESPECIALLY not at the federal level.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The rankings on this as well as other polls is interesting in that there always seems to be a heavy gender identity factor - ie, people who vote female one round have a strong tendency to vote female in the next round regardless of ideology, and a smaller version for males.

I also dont understand the Wiley-Mcguire movement, which makes no sense to me since its neither identity nor ideology based.

I mean, they're both (at least part, in Wiley's case) black.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://twitter.com/emilyngo/status/1395812842201354243
And this is precisely why Trump and his allies are able to spread lies about elections. Incompetence and taking forever to get results makes people think that something is wrong with the process.

F**k it. Biden should declare martial law against the state of New York. I'm serious. If they don't get their s**t together? That's how the Capitol gets stormed again.

There are two big sources of delays here: 1) you get 7 days after the election for your absentee ballot to arrive, and 2) you get 10 days to cure your ballot. Which are you suggesting they get rid of?

Now if they were to spend forever getting the RCV results out after the above delays, thats a completely different story.

The first, no question. Require ballots to be received by poll closing. Woke liberals will say this is vOter suPrESsion. But Oregon, which is not exactly a red state, does all-mail elections and requires exactly that.

Not trying to defend NY's incompetence, but OR has less than half the popuation of NYC alone.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

AOC endorsing Wiley is a pretty embarrassing error.

Agreed, Yang would be better for the left in NYC. But Wiley is a better ideological fit for her brand.

Interesting to see who's endorsed who as of June 2nd: https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/endorsements-nyc-mayoral-candidates.html

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I wonder if the recent string of endorsements for Wiley will help her. The primary is still almost 2 weeks away. Not a lot of time left to consolidate the progressive vote but it's still a chance none the less.

Anyways as long as Yang doesn't win.

I could be wrong on this, but there probably aren’t enough persuadable progressive voters left for Wiley to beat out Yang or Adams in the first round. Shame, she was one of my preferred non-Yang candidates. Adams doesn’t seem all that bad compared to Stringer though.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Might be better to have people think you live in Jersey than showing them the actual place you live in if it looks like this

https://twitter.com/juliakmarsh/status/1402642048197578760

EDIT: oh my...

https://twitter.com/osamabishounen/status/1402771158525628420

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Christ… every time one of these people open their mouths I think I shouldn’t even bother ranking them.
https://twitter.com/jccoltin/status/1403882410958262274?s=21

I hope the silent majority in NYC shows up to vote in this primary and rejects this kind of thinking. The renaissance in NYC of the last decade, with capital, wealth, and new residents flowing into the area, happened as a direct result of lowering crime and pro-development policies, and people like Wiley just want to throw all that away in the name of wokeness. It cannot possibly be true that New Yorkers actually want their city to go back to the way it was in the 1970's and 1980's. It should help that moderates who would have registered as Republicans in the past are probably registered as Democrats now.

I never took you for a anti-poor type guy.

No, NYC is not in a Renaissance right now. New York is an unlivable mess due to the housing crisis. And it's mostly thanks to people like Stephen Ross, responsible for the Hudson Yards abortion, building luxury housing and condos everywhere to make maximum profit instead of badly needed high density housing that would actually keep up with the demand. It's happening to some extent in every city, but New York needs to be different to adapt and continue being a mecca for everyone who wants to come. And not just spoiled brats with daddy's credit card, Chinese tourists, and Google employees.

These "spoiled brats" you refer to are the ones driving wealth and capital into the NYC area, turning it around from the 1970's and 80's when NYC was a wasteland.

CraneHusband has a point about “spoiled brats”. I hope the irony of said hipster gentrifiers being associated with Wiley and Wiley-type candidates isn’t lost on him.

I would still rank Wiley above Garcia and Adams. But I’m moving her down to #3 below Art Chang on my imaginary ballot.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Dear God, as someone who works and volunteers in the mental health field — put a fork in him. He’s over. What an absolutely disgusting mischaracterization of mental illness.

Yeah this isn't a good look for him. I'm pretty sure this is in the context of looking at anti-Asian hate crimes from a mental health perspective though (as opposed to a racial perspective).

If I am being honest, I don't think that bigotry against Asians is much of a problem in general (which is not to say that it doesn't exist or anything like that - it clearly does) and I am also very suspicious of the supposed increase in anti-Asian hate crimes, which strikes me as Stamp's law in action and also, if I am being more honest, a reflection of Asian prejudice against Blacks. If you are looking for racist motives when you previously ignored them, you might suddenly find lots of cases that could be labeled as hate crimes when, really, they are examples of vicious anti-social behavior of criminals who aren't really motivated by racial animus - they just have no values or morals, while also being influenced enough by background racism to say something prejudiced to their victim, even though they'd attack a Mexican woman as soon as they'd attack a Chinese woman. Overall, I view this phenomenon as being similar to the phenomenon of Trump supposedly causing an increasing in racist bullying in schools - I guarantee this was a function of teachers paying more attention. I was constantly called racial slurs in school in the 2000s. I just thought that was normal and thus never talked about it with authority figures.

This is not to dismiss the problems of vicious criminal behavior. Asians are clearly being victimized more and more by crime, which is increasing substantially in some cities. Asians have every reason to be concerned about this. It's important to see it for what it is though: if you think it's driven by racist hatred and not by the motives of anti-social predators, that is pretty likely to cause communalist animosity, increase racial resentment and conflict etc. If you see it for what it actually is, there are easy solutions that can bring people of all backgrounds together: take crime very seriously and work to reduce it using all levers available.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/outrage-pandemic-racism-may-boost-asian-american-voter-turnout-nyc-rcna1201

Now, ahead of next week's mayoral and City Council primaries in New York City, community leaders say outrage over anti-Asian racism and excitement about the historic bids of Andrew Yang and other Asian American candidates could similarly boost the group’s participation in local elections.

“People are starting to understand that the next step to directing your energy against anti-Asian hate is to vote and talk to elected officials,” Christine Chen, executive director of the national civic engagement organization APIAVote, told NBC Asian America. “They’re the ones who are going to resource mental health capabilities. They’re the ones who can help incorporate Asian American history into the K-12 curriculum.”

The rise in bias incidents over the past year has “incited more interest about how policy can play a role in keeping our community members safe,” said Sandra Choi, civic participation manager at the MinKwon Center for Community Action, a Flushing-based grassroots group that serves working-class Korean and Asian communities.

The new voting process, which allows New Yorkers to select up to five candidates on the ballot, has in some ways pushed mayoral and City Council hopefuls to engage with racial and ethnic groups that fall outside their base, said Howard Shih, research and policy director at the nonprofit organization Asian American Federation.

“There’s a lot more interest from candidates to reach out to Asian American voters as much as possible,” he said.

To educate voters about ranked-choice voting — and the importance of picking five candidates instead of just one — the organization produced a tutorial video that has been translated into multiple Asian languages, including Mandarin, Tagalog and Bangla. It also organized a mayoral forum in which candidates discussed the most pressing issues for the Asian American electorate, including initiatives to combat anti-Asian hate, support small businesses and create more culturally competent services.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Slingshot Strategies allegedly has Yang beating Adams in the early vote so far 20-19

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://twitter.com/JuanMaBenitez/status/1406645487697076224
lol

It feels kinda gross to me that Adams’ closing argument is literally just repeating: “That woman isn’t Latino.”

It’s so brazen and out in the open. If it works, I’ll be disappointed.

If he wins, it won’t be because of that.

https://twitter.com/ericadamsfornyc/status/1406721637697867781?s=21

Yikes, hope they have a speedy recovery!

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-political-boroughs-of-new-york-city/

The 5 Political Boroughs Of New York City

The Elite Circles: Manhattan south of Central Park + the hipster parts of Brooklyn and Queens


The True-Blue Bronx: most of the Bronx + the super-Latino part of NW Queens


The Black Bloc: “outer” Brooklyn and “outer” Queens


The Lands of Contradiction: most of Staten Island, the Orthodox Jewish and Chinese parts of Brooklyn, and much of Queens


The Crossroads: Washington Heights (Manhattan) + Bed-Stuy (Brooklyn) + Corona (Queens) + the part of Staten Island where nonwhite people live

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The city council races in Eastern Queens seem the most interesting to me. Theres a massive ethnic and ideological reaglignment going on and no one know how it will shake out

Could you elaborate? I'd like to hear a little more about that.

From skimming this article- multiracial, heavily Latino and Asian DSA-aligned coalition making gains in Eastern Queens?

https://www.thecity.nyc/2021/6/21/22544534/progressives-push-for-city-council-queens

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Oh, & also in some other news:

https://twitter.com/hunterw/status/1407340359332646923
I'm honestly really shocked that AOC would actually do something like this. It's gotta be such a gut-punch to his accusers.

This is probably the most noteworthy thing I disagree with her on aside *from the Amazon campus thing (although I do think someplace like Detroit or Cleveland would’ve been better for that from a social welfare/justice perspective).

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Wow, that is an absolutely dismal showing for Yang.

Wait for the non-gentrified/less white precincts to report. I don’t think anyone seriously expects Yang to win at this point, but I suspect he’ll outperform the recent polling averages.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Is it safe to say that Andrew Yang's political career is over?

Eh, never say never. I would've said that of Don Giovanni after Jan 20th, but we still get spammed with asinine DJT 2024 threads on here.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

If you combine the Yang/Wiley/Garcia vote it's literally whites/Asians against Hispanics/blacks (Adams).

The map follows the racial demography of the city pretty closely.

Ehh Wiley's support looks fairly cross-racial to me. She's doing reasonably well in some heavily Latino areas like northern Manhattan.

Eyeballing it, but Wiley seems to be running an (incredibly distant) second to Adams in many of the predominantly black precincts, which indicates that she's probably doing (comparatively speaking) well with younger black voters as well.