If Adams loses, it is probably because of the Dinkins effect....Black mayoral candidates have been stained because of Dinkins, a lot of old-school white people still despise Dinkins (SI, Bay Ridge)....even some moderate Giuliani Democrats that voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg.....
Even if Adams is moderate on crime, a lot of these white voters and even some white liberals view Dinkins as one of the worst mayors in NYC history......
My question is can Garcia win Black voters enough to have a large margin in November and can Garcia handle the NYPD?
This isn't the early 90s, I doubt people care about Dinkins enough to make a difference for Adams. Also I have to think that alot of the older people who didn't like Dinkins are probably republicans now(locally) or have moderated their views since then.