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Author Topic: NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread  (Read 125621 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« on: January 21, 2021, 05:44:24 PM »

I don't think Andrew Yang will realistically win, but I haven't really been following this race. Hopefully he does well.



He's right. That's why he needs to go after Airbnb and developers and get those rents down. Especially in traditional ethnic areas like Astoria, Bay Ridge, Lower East Side, etc. But with the Bloomberg people working with him I have my doubts.

The left-winger Yang fans will be in for a hilarious surprise if he actually gets elected mayor. I don't like him because he seems like he would fundamentally be unable to accomplish anything as mayor due to genuine ignorance of how politics works (once you're actually in office), but he's clearly the inheritor of the Bloomberg-Quinn line of NYC politics in this election (not ideologically a bad thing to my mind, but he'll infuriate the NIMBYs and the far-left in office).
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2021, 02:44:28 PM »



Speaking of demographics/electorates that are locked up behind a candidate.

Why don't they just nominate Stringer in the general election then, like any real political party would. It's not like they have to worry about the Republican winning a 3-way split.

The WFP isn’t a real political party, they’re only relevant here because of fusion laws

But you don't have to worry about the Republican nominee in a current-day New York City general election, so if they disagree with the Democratic candidate of choice in the plausible event Andrew Yang wins the primary, why don't they run Stringer in the general?

They could, I think they've done that before. It's plausible.

They have, though not in the mayoral race. I wouldn't expect it to happen in this mayoral race, either. None of the three candidates they endorsed are the sort of candidates the WFP will go to the mat for, and at the least Stringer wouldn't go along with it anyway.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2021, 09:16:11 AM »


Frontrunner
Andrew Yang
Competitors
Eric Adams, Scott Stringer
Periphery of Competition
Maya Wiley, Ray McGuire
Field
Shaun Donovan, Diane Morales, Kathryn Garcia


Here is my current breakdown, I've adjusted it to better reflect the state of the race. There's three people with a chance, two people who might break into the top tier, a field of people vying to get into competition, and one guy who just stays in the lead.

How set is the field?

Well, I'm pretty sure that nobody other than Yang, Stringer, and Adams actually has a chance. Wiley could get in, but not getting the UFT endorsement was a big blow for her. As for the rest, it's hard to predict how they will sort out. McGuire looks like he has some momentum, Morales might, it's hard to tell. But none of them will win.



Oh, and here is a congressional endorsements map. Stringer has 3 (Bowman, Nadler, Espaillat), Wiley has 2 (Clarke, Velazquez), McGuire has 1 (Meeks), Yang has 1 (Torres), and Adams has 1 (Suozzi).

Didn't know that Meeks endorsed McGuire! I knew Meeks wouldn't endorse Adams given the two have a little history of mutual dislike, but I'm surprised he went with a candidate that doesn't look all that viable.

McGuire has been surging recently. It's under the radar because his main gains are with black voters, who are chronically ignored and misunderstood by the local media, who are mostly white liberals, but he's definitely got momentum currently. Mainly because he's a black candidate who is relatively moderate (Wiley has problems both with her connections to the unpopular de Blasio and also being perceived by many in the black community as too radical and too looped in to the AOC/DSA universe, which has little support among black voters in NYC) and yet not a police cheerleader (unlike Eric Adams, who seems determined to be the worst candidate in literally every way possible). And he does have the financial resources to get the message out while being smart about targeting the right areas to make an under-the-radar surge.

And black voters tend to make up their minds relatively late, compared to white liberal voters, so there were (and remain) a lot of undecided black voters to for him to mop up
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2021, 11:19:11 AM »

Cuomo, Massa, Schneiderman, Weiner, and now Stringer. I don't want to jump to conclusions but New York Democrats have a real problem with their personal relationships with others.

Spitzer? In 2021 hindsight he should have pulled a Northam/Cuomo.

Spitzer didn't sexually harass anyone (as far as we know publicly anyway); He hired prostitutes and used campaign funds to pay them. Also sex-related but a quite different scandal.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2021, 10:43:43 AM »



May help him with the Jewish vote at the expense of the pro-Palestine leftist voters who probably wouldn't have voted for him anyways because he's "muh closet republican" and has gotten support from Trump voters (including the Naked Cowboy street performer might I add).

Jewish voters do not vote as a bloc based on a candidate's rigidity on the Israel issue.
This tweet won't change any minds, other than Palestinian Americans' who may feel alienated.

Yes, but the Brooklyn Orthodox do vote as a block depending upon community endorsements, and Yang's campaign has decided to reinforce the loyalty of the rabbis.
1) There are major Orthodox communities in Far Rock and Kew Gardens, not just Brooklyn.
2) They don't vote "as a block" - there are different communities, with different political goals, and they are not unanimous. Any cursory look at precinct data will show that. (They do all really love Trump, tho). The "block" voting is a myth.
3) Yang doesn't have the Orthodox vote stiched up. Adams has some deep ties here - especially with the Crown Heights Chabad community. He has his liasons and his backers within the community and they will certainly carry some support.
4) Depending on the community, the Israel sh**t may not matter at all. Satmars don't give a sh**t, for example (they believe zionism goes against g-d). Yeshivas are more important.

Block voting is not a myth. The misunderstanding may be a presumption that all ultra-Orthodox Jews vote as a single block. That is certainly not true. However, they do tend to vote in just a handful of blocks, with each block controlled by a single rabbi or small group of rabbis. This is why you can see absolutely astoundingly huge swings in heavily ultra-Orthodox precincts (as I recall, there was a precinct with a 190% swing from 2016 to 2020 - i.e., nearly uniformly Clinton to nearly uniformly Trump). But on a precinct basis you may have overlapping blocks that don't all vote the same way in every election. For example, the South Williamsburg Hasidim are well known for being divided into two competing rabbinical communities, and it's not uncommon for them to back different candidates, especially in primaries but also sometimes in general elections. There may be instances where Yang wins the larger group and Adams the smaller, or vice versa, or some combination of other candidates, and there may be others where all blocks present in a particular precinct back the same candidate and give them over 90% of the vote there. I haven't been paying close enough attention to be able to predict who will do well and who will not with any degree of certainty beyond that Yang and Adams will clearly be the top vote-getters among ultra-Orthodox, but what really matters are endorsements from the handful of influential rabbis.

I completely agree that the Israel stuff is largely a red herring and doesn't matter that much, especially since Yang and Adams are both in line on it. I do think Israel issues can matter sometimes in terms of more left-wing candidates (who can win some blocks of ultra-Orthodox voters if they court them, but only if they don't spend a lot of time on criticism of Israel), but none of them are contending for the ultra-Orthodox vote anyway: Wiley and Morales will be near 0% in ultra-Orthodox precincts.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2021, 10:28:00 PM »

Not sure if this has been brought up, but I feel like counting will be an absolute nightmare. New York is already particularly terrible at it, and RCV adds another layer of complication.

Honestly, I'm expecting a complete sh**tshow meltdown where we don't get results until mid-August and no one can explain why.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2021, 09:54:35 AM »

Carlos Menchaca endorses Dia-...Andrew Yang, (?!?), chaos ensues on his social media.

Morales supporters are NOT happy.

I think the left-wing politicians in NYC are seeing the writing on the wall and are just looking to stop Adams at this point. The perspective, which probably isn't entirely wrong, is that Yang is largely a blank slate with no ideological commitments whose actual policies in office will be determined by his advisors and the City Council's priorities, which leaves openings for left-wing policy achievements.

The activists of course lack this kind of practical perspective.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2021, 03:55:49 PM »

Not sure how seriously to take poor polling for Yang that for some reason includes a random Asian person with a similar last name.

Art Chang will be on the ballot, too. They just asked all 11 names that will be on the ballot.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2021, 02:36:46 PM »


He's surging (ugh). The question is will it be enough.

I don't think he's surging; he's been pretty stable throughout. Yang has been losing ground as people get familiar with other candidates, though, which isn't a huge surprise for the candidate who came in with the highest name recognition.

Garcia would be great. Fingers crossed. People saying shades of Lori Lightfoot are forgetting that the exact same thing happened in 2013 with de Blasio, after the primary throughout most of the season was Quinn vs. Thompson.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2021, 07:12:01 AM »

Did Garcia benefit from the debate?

Would be nice if we got some new polling on this race...

Didn’t seem to matter.

(For what it’s worth, my friend group of around 15 gay men in Manhattan who all watched the debate together had 100% first-round support for Garcia. This group was splintered among Stringer, Yang, McGuire, Wiley, Morales and a lot of undecided a month ago.)
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2021, 01:50:04 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 01:55:49 PM by 306 »

New NY1/IPSOS poll. Adams in the lead, Yang losing momentum fast, and Garcia and Wiley gaining.

This was taken May 17-31st, so before the 2nd accusation against Stringer, the collapse of the Morales campaign, and the string of endorsements for Wiley.



So it seems Stringer's supporters aren't buying the allegations?

Sucks for Yang as well, he's running out of political options at this point. Guess he'll just become an activist and/or commentator?

The poll was conducted before the latest round of allegations against Stringer. But also remember that his base of voters is mainly older liberals on the Upper West and Upper East Sides of Manhattan, not the sort of voters who get outraged by sexual harassment allegations that aren't completely cut and dry; he was never the candidate of choice for many young liberals, though he might have become such if there had been no allegations.

Anyway, I think I'm set in my preference order now:

1. Garcia
2. McGuire
3. Wiley
4. Stringer
5. Yang

I would probably put Donovan in there somewhere if he had any chance at all of making the top two. But as is I chose to put Stringer in ahead of him, which makes me feel a bit icky, but I would prefer Stringer to either Yang or Adams, and that's not an entirely impossible top three scenario so...
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2021, 12:38:34 PM »



The RCV simulation from that poll. Yang gets limited transfers and then enough go for Adams at the end. Reminder that transfers are not perfect - some voters will exit the reapportionment each round. I doubt there are that many Morales -> Adams voters for instance.

It's disappointing how many Stringer-Adams and Wiley-Adams votes there are, even assuming that a good chunk of the changes are Stringer and Wiley votes exhausting. Not incredibly surprising but disappointing.

The alternative explanation is that the vast majority of votes are being exhausted every round instead of transferring. The ballot design should (hopefully) cut down on exhaustion even when voters are only able to choose five candidates, but I nonetheless would not be surprised if most voters only put down one or two preferences (e.g., Morales-Wiley-exhausted, or Stringer-exhausted, are totally plausible patterns).
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2021, 10:13:33 AM »

Today is the first day of early voting, and I voted this morning as I'll be away from home starting Monday and would have trouble voting later than today or tomorrow. Turnout was non-zero (more than just my husband and I were there) but very light. Hoping Garcia manages to pull it out.

Took a long time to put together my preferences for races other than mayor last night (there are a lot - Comptroller, City Council and others), and I suspect most people will not fill out lower preferences for those races or choose some nonsense pattern for them.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2021, 04:45:36 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2021, 04:51:08 PM by 306 »

Curious- what is the New York contingent based at D.C (e.g Schumer/Gillibrand, influential reps, major donors, outside groups etc) doing about this race?

I guess it's because NYC politics is such a dumpster fire but I wouldn't even be able to guess who the DNC/White House want to win this race- maybe Garcia?

I would say its chaotic but this race seems quite similar to 2013 in that respect...

Schumer and Gillibrand haven't endorsed. Gillibrand doesn't live in NYC so she should definitely keep out as a strategic matter; Schumer not endorsing isn't shocking as he's trying to play nice with whoever wins and it's hard to tell who will.

As far as NYC Congresspeople go, they're also splintered, although Wiley has the largest contingent:

Espaillat and Suozzi have endorsed Adams
Meeks has endorsed McGuire
Nadler has endorsed Stringer (Espaillat and Bowman had previously also endorsed Stringer but unendorsed after the sexual harassment allegations)
Bowman, Clarke, Jeffries, Ocasio-Cortez and Velazquez have endorsed Wiley
Meng and Torres have endorsed Yang
As far as I can tell, Maloney has not endorsed anyone

The most insider-y of those endorsements is Jeffries, who is part of the Congressional leadership and wants to be the next Speaker. He only endorsed Wiley recently, and it's transparently part of a general attempt on his part to gain support with the left-establishment for further leadership roles.

Outside groups are also pretty random. Adams and Stringer both have a lot of union support, and Wiley, Garcia and Yang all have some union backing, too. Reporting is that de Blasio is quietly supporting Adams, but he hasn't publicly endorsed anyone. (At one of the debates, everyone except Yang said they would reject his endorsement, lol.)

I think it's clear that Stringer would have been the establishment choice, but his collapse has fragmented things and means the establishment is just kind of sitting on the sidelines. I think Adams is probably the viable candidate they see as most likely to play ball with the national party but they're concerned about his image in activist circles and his intraparty conflicts within the Brooklyn Democratic Party. I don't think the institutions feel like they know enough about Garcia to put any backing behind her (and personally I think she is not enough of a politician for them), but I think personally a lot of establishment political operatives who live in NYC will vote for her.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2021, 04:55:56 PM »

On a polling note, the basic difference seems to be turnout estimates. The strong Adams polling seems to be presuming middling turnout (around 20-25%) while the strong Garcia polling seems to be presuming poor turnout (around 15-20%). Those figures are roughly in the range of the last few competitive Democratic primaries for mayor, which saw turnouts of 22%, 19% and 15%. The lower the turnout, the higher the portion of the vote that will come from super-ultra-likely voters, who skew white, wealthy and Manhattanite and generally favor Garcia, whereas in the middling turnout range you'll see more turnout from in particular middle class older black voters in Brooklyn and Queens who are strongly for Adams. Hard to say which comes through. Turnout figures from early voting over the weekend were absolutely dismal (only about 30,000 votes cast city-wide, of which 10,000 came from Manhattan, i.e., massive overperformance from Manhattan/underperformance elsewhere), but since early voting is new, it's impossible to draw much in the way of conclusions there.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2021, 04:51:28 PM »

God Eric Adams is cynical.

What does Yang get if Garcia wins? I don't understand why he wants to stop Adams, is there some bad blood between the two or something?

Yang and Adams seem to legit hate each other's guts. On the other hand, Yang seems to genuinely like Garcia.

Right, it seems that Yang has taken Adams's attacks on him very personally and perceived many of them as covertly racist. And I do think Yang is extremely cynical of machine politicians generally, and Adams is really the worst of that sort.

I don't quite understand why Yang in particular likes Garcia except that she is a plausible moderate alternative to Adams and is the best chance to beat Adams. I think the policing issue is an unsurmountable barrier to Yang endorsing Wiley as a third choice, but I wouldn't be surprised if there had been at least some discussion behind the scenes between their campaigns of Wiley joining the Yang-Garcia anti-Adams coalition.

If Garcia does win, I think in future RCV elections in NYC we'll see a lot of cross-endorsing and alliances, as it feels like Yang throwing his support behind Garcia as a second-choice could really swing a lot of voters, particularly Asian American voters (I kind of doubt Yang's ultra-Orthodox Jewish bloc cares much about the cross-endorsement), behind her once Yang is eliminated (and it's extra good as an anti-Adams project as many of those voters might have otherwise had Adams as a second choice).
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2021, 08:35:42 PM »

Wiley is doing much better in Brooklyn than I would have expected. A close second behind Adams for her might not be good news for Adams if a fair number of those votes flow to Garcia rather than Adams later. (I would have thought Wiley would be second but far behind Adams in Brooklyn.)

On the other hand, a stronger showing than I would have expected for Adams thus far in the Bronx. I would have guessed Garcia and Yang (and maybe Wiley) would have done decently at least in the Hispanic areas, although I of course expected Adams to win the borough. Unexpected strength in the Bronx might be enough for Adams to win.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2021, 08:47:50 PM »

I suppose one benefit for Garcia is that I imagine not many people are ranking her below Adams unless he is their #1?

There may be a lot of black Wiley-Adams-Garcia voters who are anti-Yang.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2021, 09:00:23 PM »

I suppose one benefit for Garcia is that I imagine not many people are ranking her below Adams unless he is their #1?

There may be a lot of black Wiley-Adams-Garcia voters who are anti-Yang.

Although having seen the precinct map on RRH, I think a larger than expected portion of Wiley voters are white, and most of the rest are young and/or highly educated, which all bodes better than pre-election polls for Wiley-Garcia anti-Adams transfers.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2021, 09:13:27 PM »

Any pattern to the very few Springer precincts or are they just analomies alone with nothing in common?

They seem to be just very low-population. Incidentally, McGuire nearly won a couple of precincts along 5th Ave on the UES with over 100 voters, which is a lot less random.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2021, 09:21:07 PM »

Real yikes moment for the Garcia team as Wiley starts to catch up for second place

https://web.enrboenyc.us/CD24306ADI0.html

10:10 P.M. Eastern

388,788 votes counted total

Adams: 116,522 - 29.97%
Garcia: 82989 - 21.35%
Wiley: 81196 - 20.88%
Yang: 46521 - 11.97%

It’ll be Garcia. Wiley has a low ceiling.

I think it's clear Yang preferences would keep Garcia ahead of Wiley later if not in first-preferences. Although a lot of Yang preferences will also flow to Adams. The precinct map in Brooklyn is really interesting for the sharp Adams-Yang divide between different Orthodox Jewish areas - look at that sharp line along McDonald Ave!
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #21 on: June 22, 2021, 09:34:20 PM »

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2021, 10:34:49 PM »

Anyway, it's a lot easier to comment on coalitions now:

Adams: Nearly all black voters, other than the young and highly educated. A significant portion of Hispanic voters but not as dominant as among black voters. Orthodox Jews, but not ultra-Orthodox Jews.
Garcia: Middle and upper-income white liberal voters, especially over the age of 30, and conservative non-Jewish white voters (i.e., excluding all Orthodox Jews).
Wiley: Young, liberal, highly educated voters of all ethnicities but especially young white voters, and some other Hispanic voters.
Yang: Asian voters and ultra-Orthodox Jews and nobody else.


Eyeballing it, but Wiley seems to be running an (incredibly distant) second to Adams in many of the predominantly black precincts, which indicates that she's probably doing (comparatively speaking) well with younger black voters as well.

Yes, that's clear by her strength in Bed-Stuy and western Crown Heights, which are not nearly white enough yet for her performance to be explained solely by white liberals. She's winning young voters of all ethnicities (except maybe young Asian voters). Turnout is truly phenomenally terrible (like, maybe under 5%) among young black voters, though.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #23 on: June 22, 2021, 10:52:34 PM »

There's also a clear phenomenon of Wiley doing best in areas that are between strong Garcia areas and strong Adams areas. This leads to the generalization, which I think is quite true, actually, that Garcia was the candidate of the gentrified, Adams the candidate of the ungentrified, and Wiley the candidate of the gentrifiers (lol).
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,282


« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2021, 11:23:54 PM »

For those of us in late, what gets counted tonight and what doesn't?


This will be fun. How much info will we actually have by the end of the day today? I know counting will take forever, but what % of the reported vote could we expect by tomorrow morning?

All election day and early in-person first preferences will be known tonight. All absentees and other mail votes are not counted until June 29 as per NY law, which gives 1 week for ballots to arrive that were postmarked on or before Election Day. Voters are also given time to 'cure' their ballot in the event of any defects until July 9. June 29 is when there votes will be entered into the pool. They will start providing weekly updates on the full vote on July 6. Supposedly this puts July 12 as the day of reckoning since all votes will then be in the system. However, this assumes competence and priority on the part of NYC tabulators, and they have not demonstrated either in the past. NYC does have all the city council and borough races as will to enumerate. Checking back on the RCV special elections in the Bronx that happened earlier in the year, it appears that it is the first round votes that take the longest. Once the enumerators have every legal vote from within the time period, then they reallocate and this apparently goes very quickly through software. Allocation will be announced all at once, rather than by round.

In other words, the results tonight are probably relatively worse for Garcia in particular (absentees will skew much whiter than the overall vote) and to a lesser extent maybe Yang (since he may have banked a lot of absentees weeks ago when his poll numbers were a lot better) and better for Adams than the final first-choice ballots will be.
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