NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[new_patomic]

Absentees can also be exhausted before the final round.

[new_patomic]

How is one state, and one city in particular, so routinely incapable of running elections

[new_patomic]

Question: If Garcia really has 25% and Wiley 24% going into the penultimate round, then isn't it possible that the uncounted absentees put her ahead of Garcia, making it her v. Adams in the final round?

It is.

But for various reasons it seems unlikely. In that absentee voters seem to be more concentrated in areas Garcia did well in, and she did better with early votes which may be somewhat predictive of absentee votes, and so forth.

Then again considering how much NYE is screwing this up, who even knows anymore.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1410030761319845891?s=20

They've been pulled

Hilarious

[new_patomic]

Were the dummy votes all exhausted, or

[new_patomic]

Were the dummy votes all exhausted, or

Most were exhausted by round 7, from what I have read.

So either this has no affect whatsoever on the final margin between Garcia and Adams, or potentially it's anyone's guess.

[new_patomic]

What appears to be the case is most dummy votes that went to minor candidates tended to exhaust pretty quickly.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1410062043231637507?s=20
But I'm not sure what that means for Yang, Wiley, Garcia, and Adams.

Adams got more dummy votes, followed by Yang, Garcia, and then Wiley in that order. I feel like this could actually impact who, before absentees are counted, is in the top 2 considering the margin between Garcia and Wiley was only .5 percent. And that was thanks to her getting a near majority of Yang voters.

[new_patomic]

New York can be dumb and stupid all on its own without us having to give credence to the latest round of "here's why our trying to steal the election was okay!"

[new_patomic]

In practical terms versus what we thought were the results yesterday, this is 1,153 votes closer, though the margin is the same.

Garcia now needs to make up 14,755 votes instead of 15,908. Which feels like a very slight? win given the number of outstanding absentee votes remain the same.

[new_patomic]

It's past 5PM ET now...

They're just out at a late Tuesday afternoon brunch.

Must have been one boozy brunch

[new_patomic]

Those absentees were not remotely as kind to Garcia as expected

This entire process has been an egg on all our faces