NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Jeppe]

Lori Lightfoot redux

https://twitter.com/Giambusso/status/1397251095802650625?s=20

Garcia: 21
Adams: 20
Yang: 16
Stringer: 10

[Jeppe]

Emerson's RCV tabulation. Garcia defeats Adams 55-45 on the final ballot.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/GloriaPazmino/status/1400892462546178050?s=20

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/katieglueck/status/1406017124456448005?s=20

Sounds like Garcia and Yang are cross-endorsing each other. A substantial amount of Yang's supporters are defecting to Adams in RCV simulations, so this will probably help Garcia a lot.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/adam_brew/status/1406668002762833922?s=20

Despite Garcia basically snubbing Yang, Yang is still explicitly asking his supporters to rank her #2. Interesting..

[Jeppe]

God Eric Adams is cynical.

What does Yang get if Garcia wins? I don't understand why he wants to stop Adams, is there some bad blood between the two or something?

Yang and Adams seem to legit hate each other's guts. On the other hand, Yang seems to genuinely like Garcia.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1408238147809460224?s=20

Absentee ballots are coming in after e-day. There were 87K returned by e-day but now they're at 116K, out of the ~200K absentee ballots that were sent out that could still be returned and counted.

[Jeppe]

So are we getting a total dump on Tuesday of all of the absentees then

No, we are getting the RCV simulation of the in-person ballots. Absentees come later.

[Jeppe]

So are we getting a total dump on Tuesday of all of the absentees then

No, we are getting the RCV simulation of the in-person ballots. Absentees come later.

Is that not a waste of time since they have to redo the RCV distribution once the absentees votes comes in and counted ?

Probably, but the realistic alternative in that scenario is that we don't get any info at all this upcoming Tuesday. At least this way, if Adams is ahead 60-40 in the final ballot, we can definitively call the race. Otherwise if it's like a 52-48 lead or closer, we wait for absentees.

[Jeppe]

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

[Jeppe]

Data For Progress, the pollster that more or less nailed the most important elections last week (mayor, comptroller and Manhattan DA) created an RCV simulation using election-day results.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/28/dfp-ranked-choice-simulations

Kathryn Garcia defeats Eric Adams 54-46 on the final ballot
Eric Adams defeated Maya Wiley 52-48 on the final ballot

Very interesting - have to wonder how many of Yang's voters will rank Garcia higher than Wiley. I feel like that's ultimately going to decide what happens.

Yeah, DFP has Garcia dominating among Yang voters, winning about 60% against both Adams and wiley. I guess we'll see tomorrow night!

[Jeppe]

Pardon my confusion, but I'm still not sure what we're getting today? Can someone explain (and when we're getting absentees/are they being dumped all at once)

+ what time we're expecting anything today?

Nobody really knows for sure. The NYC BOE said end of day, though.

[Jeppe]

We're definitely not getting a winner today right? I mean, I know it's not clear what we're getting, but there's no way they're going to have all calculations done, right?

Unless Adams is ahead by a lot on the final ballot, i.e. 58-42, we probably have to keep waiting.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/JCColtin/status/1409958078980763650?s=20


With 123K absentee ballots left to be counted, Garcia has to net 16K over Adams to defeat him. Looks like it may actually happen.

[Jeppe]

Let's not rule out that Wiley could make it into the final round given how close Round 10 is. Any idea where the rest of the absentees are coming from? I saw someone on Twitter say Manhattan, where Garcia won.

1) Absentees are disproportionately in areas where Garcia won (31% of absentees are in districts where Garcia won, compared to the 19% she got in the first round).
2) Garcia overperformed in the in-person early voting bucket, placing 2nd behind Adams by only 2 points. Adams won election day vote by 15+ points but it seems quite likely that absentee ballots will look more like the early vote bucket rather than the e-day bucket.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1408079937123217410?s=20

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1409968018285813767?s=20

[Jeppe]

I did the math, and Garcia needs to win 56.4% of the remaining ballots to defeat Adams in the final round.

How likely is that? I hope she wins because she's better than Adams.

Pretty likely, absentees are disproportionately in wealthy, white districts that Garcia did really well in.

[Jeppe]

Ok, so now I'm hearing there are a bunch of election day votes from the Bronx that haven't been counted yet for some reason? What is going on lol

If you're seeing this from the Wasserman tweet, he seems to have misunderstood. There were 140K votes from the Bronx that were uncounted last week. They are now counted and are included in this last update. Maybe. Still unsure.

I suspect that was the original source of the confusion. My verdict is that Wasserman and the NYCBOE are both cringe

Wasserman deleted his tweets.