NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:07:14 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread  (Read 125673 times)
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« on: August 28, 2020, 07:44:34 PM »

Eric Adams *had* positioned himself well, but his brand of politics failed miserably this year. Corey Johnson is going to have the honor of oresiding over mass layoffs - not good. Shaun Donovan is bringing in tons of cash but his appeal is limited to the richer parts of Manhattan - where he'll be squeezed by Stringer and Johnson anyways. Leaving Maya Wiley looking alright, somehow?

Jumaane won't run unless he thinks he'll win. So far there's no indication he's running.

The big news recently is that Tiffany Caban's running for Council. She's going places in the future.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2020, 08:50:12 AM »

Corey Johnson's not running anymore. Word is he's going to run against Carolyn Maloney instead. He's been on a tear recently - just called the cops on protestors for the crime of protesting near his house.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2020, 02:52:29 PM »

Kathryn Garcia seems like the type of person NYC could benefit from electing right now.
Why?
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2020, 10:58:56 AM »

Kathryn Garcia seems like the type of person NYC could benefit from electing right now.
Why?

Not who you were asking but she's been de Blasio's go-to problem solver/crisis manager in City Hall & so she's earned a reputation there as an effective manager, which is obviously the complete opposite of de Blasio's status as NYC's current mayor-clown.

(Alternatively, perhaps Sev's intention was some sorta 'NYC is trash' joke since she's the Sanitation Commissioner?)
She's basically a complete unknown. The reputation game is all bs and no one cares about it outside of City and State readers. It is all appearances sake - running something "well" for a month does not mean you can be an effective mayor (and effect what?)
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2020, 11:35:06 AM »

Shaun Donovan has an impressive network already, the "Obama Halo", and can run as an outsider who had nothing to do with the De Blasio era while still passing muster as a liberal Democrat. He might have the edge now.
What? Not even Shaun Donovan believes that. And De Blasio's unpopularity is overstated. He remains fairly popular among outer borough Black folks and his annointed successor Wiley has a solid shot at winning.

Stringer, Adams, and Wiley are the frontrunners right now.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2020, 11:36:12 AM »

Corey Johnson's not running anymore. Word is he's going to run against Carolyn Maloney instead. He's been on a tear recently - just called the cops on protestors for the crime of protesting near his house.
Showing y'all there's a reason to take my word for things!
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 02:55:44 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2020, 02:59:23 PM by warandwar »

https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/exclusive-carlos-menchaca-confirms-mayoral-campaign.html

Quote
New York City Council Member Carlos Menchaca confirmed to City & State that he is running for mayor in the 2021 Democratic primary and will officially announce his candidacy on Thursday. As has been previously reported, Menchaca has filed with the New York City Campaign Finance Board, and the announcement has been widely anticipated since Menchaca hinted at it on Twitter earlier this month.

Menchaca, who has recently drawn attention for defeating a proposed rezoning of Industry City, represents a diverse, largely Latino district spanning Sunset Park, Red Hook, Greenwood Heights and slivers of Windsor Terrace, Dyker Heights and Borough Park. He is the first Mexican-American elected official in New York state and, according to his website, he is also the first openly gay elected office holder from Brooklyn.

What are Menchaca's chances in the primary?

He'll be the one candidate explicitly running to De Blasio's left and is likely to get endorsements from AOC and other far-left city politicians as it goes on, so he'll be a factor for a while. Good chance he even makes the runoff if the field doesn't coalesce, but he'll likely lose a one-on-one battle with Stringer, Donovan, Adams, or any of the other big guns.
Donovan is not a "big gun" and we don't have runoffs anymore (bc of Ranked Choice Voting).

If by explicit, you mean "voice opinions to BdB's left," then I'd say a good number of the field, including Blaz's annointed successor, Maya Wiley, will run to his left. If by actual content of your program, I'd imagine they are all going to be fairly mushy middle. I think Menchaca actually has a good chance at getting the hard left. His no on IC is a big deal and Sunset Park is turning into a real center for the Left here. And Stringer is an obvious fake, especially when it comes to real estate, which is the number one issue for much on the City. So he could do quite well, as you say.

It is quite hard to handicap this right now. No one really kniws what RCV is going to do (and i'd estimate 80% of voters do not even know we've switched to the system).

Oh and Ray, I work for parks. We didn't selectively close playgrounds. We closed all playgrounds. Most people just hopped the fence. No targeting of midwood, you could just gone to Marine Park!
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2020, 08:17:48 PM »

Menchaca is my councilman, and I think he'd be great, but I doubt he'll get far here. Assuming he doesn't surprise here, I think he would be a good fit for NY-7, either as a primary challenge or successor when Nydia Velazquez retires.
Velazquez won't get primaried, and I'm pretty sure Julia Salazar's gunning for the seat. He'd be a decent fit if she didn't exist
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2021, 04:44:50 PM »

The NYCGOP is not relevant in this election, it's only a question of who they chose to get 25% to 30%
I wouldnt say that. Republicans have won before in NYC. Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Guliani were Republicans.

That is true, but as long as the NYPD is around, the NYCGOP will always be relevant.....

That was over a decade ago and isn't really relevant to the current election.
Bronz stumbling backward into a good and entirely correct point.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2021, 11:03:16 AM »

I think Morales would really benefit in a non-COVID world. She needs to get her name rec up. She's still my favorite candidate in this race, but she doesn't stand a chance unless she becomes more recognizable.
She will. She's the only one besides Yang with any kind of grassroots base
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2021, 11:38:24 AM »

Why isn't Eric Adams gaining traction? Is it because McGuire is in his lane of moderate black voters in Queens and Brooklyn? Is it because he is a former cop?

Is it because he sucks?

How does he suck?

Because he's allied with the independent Democrat coalition that helped the Republicans nuke rent control laws and affordable housing in NY.


That's inherently an oxymoron. Even though Adams and the IDC suck for other reasons.

Let me guess, you're going to tell me how allowing predatory developers to triple the rents in some neighborhoods in 20 years actually made the housing affordable? Save it.

No, that didn't work either--to the extent that the power dynamics are as you suggest. But there are, in fact, other alternatives to your band-aid solution which helps *very few* people at the expense of many more--probably including you.

Cite:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/03/09/after-a-year-berlins-experiment-with-rent-control-is-a-failure
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wealthy-older-tenants-in-manhattan-get-biggest-boost-from-rent-regulations-11560344400
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr-edge-featd-article-061520.html
https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/rent-control/
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.125
7/aer.20181289
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1991.tb00850.x
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119099921630
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119006000635?via%3Dihub
http://freakonomics.com/podcast/rent-control/



I mean the real world fact in NYC is that rent controlled apartments dropped by about 65% in ten years, which coincided with an explosion in the cost of rent and predatory development. You can argue about the correlation, but entire neighborhoods that were once working class and affordable, like Long Island City, the East Village, and Fort Greene, have been turned into absolute gentrified luxury condo nightmares, and it priced hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers out of their homes and neighborhoods.

Obviously making it illegal to raise rent lowers rent. Blairite's point is that it causes shortages and screws over people who can't find a rental.
In other words, the market should serve gentrifiers, not long term residents who want to stay in their homes of 20 years.  Got it.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2021, 03:10:15 PM »

Why isn't Eric Adams gaining traction? Is it because McGuire is in his lane of moderate black voters in Queens and Brooklyn? Is it because he is a former cop?

Is it because he sucks?

How does he suck?

Because he's allied with the independent Democrat coalition that helped the Republicans nuke rent control laws and affordable housing in NY.


That's inherently an oxymoron. Even though Adams and the IDC suck for other reasons.

Let me guess, you're going to tell me how allowing predatory developers to triple the rents in some neighborhoods in 20 years actually made the housing affordable? Save it.

No, that didn't work either--to the extent that the power dynamics are as you suggest. But there are, in fact, other alternatives to your band-aid solution which helps *very few* people at the expense of many more--probably including you.

Cite:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/03/09/after-a-year-berlins-experiment-with-rent-control-is-a-failure
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wealthy-older-tenants-in-manhattan-get-biggest-boost-from-rent-regulations-11560344400
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr-edge-featd-article-061520.html
https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/rent-control/
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.125
7/aer.20181289
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1991.tb00850.x
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119099921630
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119006000635?via%3Dihub
http://freakonomics.com/podcast/rent-control/



I mean the real world fact in NYC is that rent controlled apartments dropped by about 65% in ten years, which coincided with an explosion in the cost of rent and predatory development. You can argue about the correlation, but entire neighborhoods that were once working class and affordable, like Long Island City, the East Village, and Fort Greene, have been turned into absolute gentrified luxury condo nightmares, and it priced hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers out of their homes and neighborhoods.

Obviously making it illegal to raise rent lowers rent. Blairite's point is that it causes shortages and screws over people who can't find a rental.
In other words, the market should serve gentrifiers, not long term residents who want to stay in their homes of 20 years.  Got it.

Artificially creating obstacles for people moving in is terrible for the local economy.
"Artificial obstacle" = 70 year old black grandmother who held down the neighborhood during the 80s and 90s only to be removed so neighborhood can be filled with the Job Creators.
Once you start talking to tenants in NYC, you see what the Bloomberg years created and why the backlash has been so intense.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2021, 06:53:00 AM »



Looks like it's time for some consolidation.

No surprise to see Morales not existing in this demographic. In fact I'm starting to think she doesn't exist at all.

No... that can’t be right... I see her posters all over the place in the neighborhoods where all the gentrifiers who pretend to hate gentrification live. 🤔
I don't disagree (and find her supporters a bit delusional) but you have to admit finding loyal volunteers from those neighborhoods has dramatically changed NYC politics! Morales has a (very annoying) movement and brand, which kept her alive for matching funds. Now she can put some tv ads up. Not gonna win, but certainly a decent job so far.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2021, 08:47:24 AM »

^ Neither of you live in NYC. I actually have to work for the city that Yang would govern and I'm not looking forward to it!

Anyways...it seems Stringer has decided that since he cannot come up with a reason for people to vote *for* him, he is hoping that Dianne Morales comes up with one.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2021, 11:34:20 AM »

^ Neither of you live in NYC. I actually have to work for the city that Yang would govern and I'm not looking forward to it!

Anyways...it seems Stringer has decided that since he cannot come up with a reason for people to vote *for* him, he is hoping that Dianne Morales comes up with one.

1. Per your avatar, you're in Nunvaut, so you're misrepresenting yourself on this forum.
2. Well, you worked in a city governed by De Blasio for 8 years, how did that go?
1. I live in the Nunavaut section of Brooklyn.
2. Not terrible until he shafted everyone in favor of the cops. No reason to doubt that Yang would do the same
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2021, 05:15:09 PM »

^ Neither of you live in NYC. I actually have to work for the city that Yang would govern and I'm not looking forward to it!

Anyways...it seems Stringer has decided that since he cannot come up with a reason for people to vote *for* him, he is hoping that Dianne Morales comes up with one.

1. Per your avatar, you're in Nunvaut, so you're misrepresenting yourself on this forum.
2. Well, you worked in a city governed by De Blasio for 8 years, how did that go?
1. I live in the Nunavaut section of Brooklyn.
2. Not terrible until he shafted everyone in favor of the cops. No reason to doubt that Yang would do the same

Not that I'm doubting you but where in BK is the Nunavaut section? Legitimately curious as I live in Brooklyn and have never heard of it.
More of a state of mind.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2021, 09:28:24 AM »

I fully expect Adams to win. The only union thats going to be ride or die with Stringer is the UFT. Rest are going to Adams.

HTC (hotel workers, very very close w De Blasio) are spending buckets of cash to shore up Adams among Hispanic voters. Baffling to me that Morales has been leaving that constituency wide open but her campaign is run by morons.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2021, 09:25:58 PM »

Yang is going to have the near unanimous block vote of Asians and Orthodox Jews (see Tweet above). Not sure a couple of newspaper endorsements are going to be able to stop him.
This is not clear at all re: Asians. Polling has not shown a unanimity. He has the support of major figures in the Fujianese and Taiwanese communities, and some backing in the Korean community as well. None of that in the Bangladeshi or Nepalese communities.
I agree with Bronz - Adams has a solid shot.

Scoop: Dianne Morales's campaign does not use VAN for some reason lol
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2021, 11:11:41 PM »

Yang is going to have the near unanimous block vote of Asians and Orthodox Jews (see Tweet above). Not sure a couple of newspaper endorsements are going to be able to stop him.
This is not clear at all re: Asians. Polling has not shown a unanimity. He has the support of major figures in the Fujianese and Taiwanese communities, and some backing in the Korean community as well. None of that in the Bangladeshi or Nepalese communities.
I agree with Bronz - Adams has a solid shot.

Scoop: Dianne Morales's campaign does not use VAN for some reason lol


What about non-Chinatown Chinese, Filipinos, Indians, Vietnamese, etc? I doubt any of them vote nearly as much as a bloc as the communities you listed, but the impression I've gotten from other posters is that those groups are also leaning towards Yang due to being younger and more likely to be 1.5+ gen transplants. I really can't see Millennial transplants as a whole preferring Adams to Yang in a 2-way matchup.

Don't have any skin in the game, and I don't think Adams would be that bad. But I generally prefer more socially liberal and culturally cosmopolitan candidates, and Adams reminds me of the things I didn't like about Biden.
I don't think the Viet community (mostly up in the Bronx, pretty poor) really fits in with your description.
None of these communities vote as a bloc (friends of mine have put out a massive AAPIAgainstYang letter), but institutional support does carry weight with primary voters (remember this election is going to have like 30% turnout max).
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2021, 11:58:27 PM »



May help him with the Jewish vote at the expense of the pro-Palestine leftist voters who probably wouldn't have voted for him anyways because he's "muh closet republican" and has gotten support from Trump voters (including the Naked Cowboy street performer might I add).

Jewish voters do not vote as a bloc based on a candidate's rigidity on the Israel issue.
This tweet won't change any minds, other than Palestinian Americans' who may feel alienated.

Yes, but the Brooklyn Orthodox do vote as a block depending upon community endorsements, and Yang's campaign has decided to reinforce the loyalty of the rabbis.
1) There are major Orthodox communities in Far Rock and Kew Gardens, not just Brooklyn.
2) They don't vote "as a block" - there are different communities, with different political goals, and they are not unanimous. Any cursory look at precinct data will show that. (They do all really love Trump, tho). The "block" voting is a myth.
3) Yang doesn't have the Orthodox vote stiched up. Adams has some deep ties here - especially with the Crown Heights Chabad community. He has his liasons and his backers within the community and they will certainly carry some support.
4) Depending on the community, the Israel sh**t may not matter at all. Satmars don't give a sh**t, for example (they believe zionism goes against g-d). Yeshivas are more important.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2021, 02:37:55 PM »

The "100%" swing precinct is New Square, in Rockford County.

Yang has grassroots enthusiasm among the shababnikim (they love bitcoin) so i fully expect some rebbes to endorse Adams but not fully carry the crowd. I've seen some yiddish Yang posters being passed around on hasidic WhatsApp and Telegram meme channels (highly recommend orthodox memes)
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2021, 09:49:28 AM »

Dianne seems to be digging in on the ideological battlefield that public safety should be divorced from police. Regardless of your view on the ideology, this is a high politically disadvantageous position.
I would contest that point a bit generally, but i do see where you're coming from.
HOWEVER, it has been very politically advantageous for Dianne to be the only one in the race to have that position. Got her to 10%  matching funds, and a gang of delusional supporters (not a dig, sometimes delusions are necessary to win campaigns).

The debate didn't make me want to vote for any of them. As a city worker, it never felt like they were speaking to me. Felt like they were speaking to the journalists who'll summarize the debate later.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2021, 12:02:09 PM »

Carlos Menchaca endorses Dia-...Andrew Yang, (?!?), chaos ensues on his social media.

Morales supporters are NOT happy.

I think the left-wing politicians in NYC are seeing the writing on the wall and are just looking to stop Adams at this point. The perspective, which probably isn't entirely wrong, is that Yang is largely a blank slate with no ideological commitments whose actual policies in office will be determined by his advisors and the City Council's priorities, which leaves openings for left-wing policy achievements.

The activists of course lack this kind of practical perspective.
Lmao what are you talking about. They're not trying to stop Adams, they're trying to get jobs (and i imagine Ron Kim is trying to stave off a primary challenge). And believe me, there are plenty of activists who have gone to work w Yang so they can get a job.

Here's a practical perspective - you can't push blank slates from the grassroots. You can push people with identifiable constituencies. Eric Adams can and has been pushed because organizers know who he's indebted to and how they can be moved (this is called power mapping).
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #23 on: May 14, 2021, 12:04:15 PM »

Latest Change Research poll has Garcia?!?!?! surging into third, and a 50/50 tie between Yang and Adams in the last round. Morales at 5% and eliminated in third round.
Not surprising. A lot of people are speaking highly of her behind the scenes.
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


« Reply #24 on: May 14, 2021, 12:45:08 PM »

Latest Change Research poll has Garcia?!?!?! surging into third, and a 50/50 tie between Yang and Adams in the last round. Morales at 5% and eliminated in third round.
Not surprising. A lot of people are speaking highly of her behind the scenes.
Well I know city workers are big fans of her, but that doesn't always manifest in the electorate. I'd say it is incredibly surprising, giving this represents her support over tripling within a week. But if this poll is true must all do our part and rank her somewhere.
Similar to Dianne, actually, she's talking about things no one else is talking about right now. Good way to cut through the bullsh**t.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.075 seconds with 12 queries.